2016年12月16日

Donard Trumpはアメリカのビジネスのルールをどのように変えようとしているのか。 全てがいいニュースばかりではない。

The president and corporations
How Donald Trump is changing the rules for American business
The president-elect has a new approach to dealing with corporate America. It is not all good news
Dec 10th 2016

大統領と企業
Donard Trumpはアメリカのビジネスのルールをどのように変えようとしているのか。
大統領候補はアメリカの実業界との取引で新たな取り組みを持っている。全てがいいニュースばかりではない。




HIS inauguration is still six weeks away but Donald Trump has already sent shock waves through American business. Chief executives—and their companies’ shareholders—are giddy at the president-elect’s promises to slash burdensome regulation, cut taxes and boost the economy with infrastructure spending. Blue-collar workers are cock-a-hoop at his willingness to bully firms into saving their jobs. 

giddy:有頂天になって
cock-a-hoop:大喜びで
bully:脅す

In the past few weeks, Mr Trump has lambasted Apple for not producing more bits of its iPhone in America; harangued Ford about plans to move production of its Lincoln sports-utility vehicles; and lashed out at Boeing, not long after the firm’s chief executive had mused publicly about the risks of a protectionist trade policy. Most dramatically, Mr Trump bribed and cajoled Carrier, a maker of air-conditioning units in Indiana, to change its plans and keep 800 jobs in the state rather than move them to Mexico. One poll suggests that six out of ten Americans view Mr Trump more favourably after the Carrier deal. This muscularity is proving popular. 

lambasted:をこき下ろす
bits:もっとたくさん
harangued:熱弁を振るう
lashed:痛烈に非難する
mused:つぶやく
bribed:言うことを聞かせる
cajoled:おだててやめさせる
muscularity:筋肉のたくましさ
Popular:受けがいい

Popular but problematic. The emerging Trump strategy towards business has some promising elements, but others that are deeply worrying. The promise lies in Mr Trump’s enthusiasm for corporate-tax reform, his embrace of infrastructure investment and in some parts of his deregulatory agenda. The dangers stem, first, from the muddled mercantilism that lies behind his attitude to business, and, second, in the tactics—buying off and attacking individual companies—that he uses to achieve his goals. American capitalism has flourished thanks to the predictable application of rules. If, at the margin, that rules-based system is superseded by an ad hoc approach in which businessmen must take heed and pay homage to the whim of King Donald, the long-term damage to America’s economy will be grave. 

problematic:問題の多い
muddled:頭が混乱んした
mercantilism:営利主義
buying:抱き込む
predictable:結末の予測がつく
at the margin:枝葉末節的なことかもしれないが
superseded:取って代わる
heed:に注意を払う
homage:敬意を払う
whim:気まぐれ
grave:重大な

Helping the few at the expense of the many
Start with the confusions in Mr Trump’s philosophy. The president-elect believes that America’s workers are harmed when firms move production to cheaper locations offshore. That is why he wants to impose a 35% tariff on the products of any company that moves its production abroad. Such tariffs would be hugely disruptive. They would make goods more expensive for American consumers. By preventing American firms from maximising their efficiency using complex supply chains, they would reduce their competitiveness, deter new investment and, eventually, hurt workers’ wages across the economy. They would also encourage a tit-for-tat response. 

disruptive:混乱をもたらす・破壊的な
deter:思いとどまらせる
encourage:促進する
tit-for-tat:しっぺ返し

Precisely because tariffs would be so costly, many businessmen discount Mr Trump’s protectionism as mere rhetoric. Plenty of them see the focus on individual firms as a politically canny (and thus sensible) substitute. If Mr Trump can convince American workers that he is on their side using only a barrage of tweets and a few back-room deals like the one with Carrier, there may be no need to resort to tariffs. To profit from a business-friendly bonanza, the logic goes, clever executives simply have to make sure they stay in the president’s good books. 

Precisely:まさに〜が理由で
canny:用心深い
convince:納得させる
bonanza:大儲け・利益の元
the logic goes:筋書き通りに行けば

That looks like wishful thinking. Mr Trump’s mercantilism is long-held and could prove fierce, particularly if the strong dollar pushes America’s trade deficit higher. Congress would have only limited powers to restrain the president’s urge to impose tariffs. More important, even if rash protectionism is avoided, a strategy based on bribing and bullying individual companies will itself be a problem. 

fierce:ひどい
rash:軽率な

Mr Trump is not the first American politician to cajole firms. For all its reputation as the bastion of rule-based capitalism, America has a long history of ad hoc political interventions in business. States routinely offer companies subsidies of the sort that Indiana gave to Carrier. From John Kennedy, who publicly shamed steel firms in the 1960s, to Barack Obama, who bailed out car companies in 2009, all presidents have meddled in markets. 

bastion:砦
shamed:面目を潰す
meddled:干渉する

And Mr Trump’s actions so far are not exceptional relative to his predecessors or by international standards. Britain’s prime minister recently made undisclosed promises to Nissan, a Japanese carmaker, to persuade the firm to stay in Britain despite Brexit. The French government is notorious for brow-beating individual firms to keep jobs in France. The most egregious crony corporatists, from Russia to Venezuela, dish out favours to acolytes and punishments to opponents on a scale that would bring blushes even in Trump Tower. 

brow-beating :脅す
egregious:甚だしい
crony:縁故
corporatists:協調組合主義者
dish:皿に取り分ける
acolytes:追随者
bring blushes:赤面する

Courting the king and currying favour
Nonetheless, Mr Trump’s approach is worrying. Unlike the Depression, when Hoover and then Roosevelt got companies to act in what they (often wrongly) saw as the national interest; or 2009, when Mr Obama corralled the banks and bailed out Detroit, America today is not in crisis. Mr Trump’s meddling is thus likely to be the new normal. Worse, his penchant for unpredictable and often vindictive bullying is likely to be more corrosive than the handouts most politicians favour. 

Courting:機嫌をとる
currying:点数を稼ぐ
corralled:拘束する
penchant:強い嗜好
vindictive:執念深い
bullying:いじめ
corrosive:徐々に衰退させる
handouts:補助金

If this is the tone of the Trump presidency, prudent businesses will make it their priority to curry favour with the president and avoid actions that might irk him. Signs of this are already evident in the enthusiasm with which top CEOs—many of them critics of Mr Trump during the campaign—have rushed to join his new advisory board. Helping the Trump Organisation or the Trump family might not go amiss either. The role of lobbyists will grow—an irony given that Mr Trump promised to drain the Washington swamp of special interests. 

irk:イライラさせる
not go amiss:ありがたい
drain:水を抜く

The costs from this shift may be imperceptible at first, exceeded by the boon from economic stimulus and regulatory reform. And as president of the world’s largest economy, Mr Trump will be able to ride roughshod over firms for longer with impunity than politicians in smaller places ever could. But over time the damage will accumulate: misallocated capital, lower competitiveness and reduced faith in America’s institutions. Those who will suffer most are the very workers Mr Trump is promising to help. That is why, if he really wants to make America great again, Mr Trump should lay off the protectionism and steer clear of the bullying right now. 

imperceptible:感じられない
roughshod:威張りちらす
impunity:なんの咎めもなく
steer:困難を避ける

トランプの減税政策、インフラ投資、規制緩和は景気を刺激し、アメリカの経済に良い影響を与えるが、一方で、対外的な保護主義は問題がある。しかも、彼自身が海外に移転しようとする企業にモンンクをつけていることが問題だ。確かに過去の大統領はそうしたことをしてきたが、それは経済に問題がったからだ。現在そうした問題がないにもかかわらず、企業に干渉している。そうした保護主義は結局、アメリカの経済を蝕むことになり、彼が支援しようとしている労働者の仕事を結局は奪うことになってしまう。

この記事で言っている通りだ。トランプの政策でいいものととんでもないものとが混在し、しかも彼が独裁者のような行動をしだしていることを懸念している。もちろん議会があるから、ロシアとか中国のようなわけにはいかない。保護主義については彼がNAFTAのしても、TPPにしても勉強すれば、今までとは違った意見が出てくるかもしれない。ただ、TTPとかTTIPはそれでも他の理由があって、うまくはいかないだろう。ここに書いてあるようは工場をメキシコに移転させないような措置は結局、経済を破綻させてしまうだろう。

土曜日。昨日は朝からEarly Birdsの朝会があり、午後は日本橋の銀行に行き、夜は元住友化学の高尾さんと会食。今日は朝から海野塾がある。今夜はスケートの仲間の忘年会もある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 21:20コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

トラックバックURL

コメントする

名前:
URL:
  情報を記憶: 評価:  顔   星
 
 
 
プロフィール

swingby_blog

プロフィール

海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
Swingby 最新イベント情報
海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
講演・メディア出演

最新記事
月別アーカイブ
Recent Comments
記事検索
ご訪問者数
  • 今日:
  • 累計:

   ご訪問ありがとうございます。


社長ブログ ブログランキングへ
メールマガジン登録
最新のセミナー情報を配信します。
登録はこちらのフォームから↓