Driving a Hard Bargain
Trump sees it as his mission to repair the social contract with the American public by bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States. This will be easier said than done, however. Across-the-board tariffs against big trading partners, such as China, might have worked 20 years ago but not in today's globalized environment. Raising import tariffs now could cause the price of goods no longer produced domestically to skyrocket and disrupt international supply chains, turning many U.S. businesses into pawns in various overseas trade wars. 

Across-the-board tariffs：関税一括引き上げ
pawns ：人質

It could be argued that China depends more heavily on exports than the United States does and cannot afford to risk its vital supply lines in a major confrontation with the world's most powerful navy. This, in effect, leaves Washington with the upper hand in its trade tussle with Beijing. In the search for additional leverage against China, Trump has shown a willingness to expire Washington's "one-China" policy, a holdover from the Cold War that dodged the question of Taiwan's statehood to drive a wedge between the Soviets and Communist China. 

upper hand：優勢になる
tussle：取っ組み合い
leverage：影響力
holdover：残留物
dodged：避ける
statehood：国家であること
wedge：関係を悪化させる

But that's just one side of the equation. China has twin imperatives to maintain access to export markets and raw materials and to prevent an outside power from blockading its northern coast through the Taiwan Strait. If Trump's policies interfere with these objectives, Beijing has levers it can pull to retaliate. Should the United States play the Taiwan card to try to exact economic concessions from Beijing, China can strong-arm U.S. companies operating on the mainland. 

equation：難しい問題
imperatives：責務・急務
retaliate：報復する
exact：要求する
concessions：譲歩
strong-arm：に暴力を振るう

Beijing can also use its enormous economic clout over Taiwan — whose semiconductor manufacturing and assembly industry is tightly intertwined with the mainland — to threaten a disruption to the global tech supply chain. Furthermore, as its recent seizure of an unmanned U.S. naval drone illustrated, China can flex its maritime muscle, albeit cautiously, to raise the stakes in a trade dispute with the United States. Though Trump would rather leave it to regional stakeholders such as Japan and South Korea to balance against Beijing, his compulsion to correct the United States' trade relationship with China will draw him into stormy security waters in the Pacific. 

disruption：混乱・中断
flex：筋肉を動かす
stakes：緊急性を高める
compulsion：衝動

A Different Kind of Negotiation
Just as Trump regards the one-China policy as a relic of the Cold War worth revisiting, he intends to update Washington's relationship with Moscow. As Trump sees it, the United States is not fighting an existential battle with Russia deserving of Cold War-era collective security commitments. Russia is no longer preoccupied with forging an empire under an ideology that is anathema to Western capitalism. Instead, Moscow is focused on the more basic task of constructing a national identity and insulating the state and its borderlands from Western encroachment in anticipation of greater domestic turmoil to come. 

relic：遺物
existential：存在の
anathema：嫌悪の対象 
insulating：絶縁する
encroachment：侵害

トランプは中国に関税をかけると言っているが、２０年前ならともかく、現在は不可能だ。サプライチェーンもさることながら、中国からの輸入品が高騰してしまう。中国もアメリカへの輸出に依存しているので、アメリカの海軍との諍いを起こしたくない。トランプが一つの中国に対して、今までの慣習を破ってきたが、中国はアメリカとの交易が大事ではあるが、その件に関しては報復に出るだろう。トランプが南シナ海にどう対処するかと一方で、ロシアとの関係に着目する必要がある。ロシアは以前のように西側諸国に敵対してはいない。彼らは自国の国益を守ることにその基本的なスタンスを置いている。

トランプは台湾とやりとりを通じて、習近平に南シナ海での軍事基地の建設に対してフェアな交渉をしようとしている。関税の話もブラフに過ぎない。ロシアとの交渉を通じても中国に圧力をかけるだろう。米中蘇の連携とパワーバランスを図っていくだろう。

日曜日。昨日は海野塾があった。午前中は高橋講師がお休みだったので、私が慰安婦の講義を行った。今日は一日、来週の慰安婦の資料レビューと本書きだ。ではまた明日。