2016年12月27日

トランプの基本方針 仕掛り中だ。(4)

But Obama, unlike Trump, applied an internationalist lens to his realist views. He wanted his allies to pay their share but was resolute in keeping the U.S. security umbrella over their heads. He viewed foreign trade as a means to build alliances and contain conflicts. Still, protectionism was already well underway during Obama's tenure. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the United States has led G-20 countries in carrying out discriminatory trade measures on selective industries (particularly metals), according to a report by Global Trade Alert. At the same time, Obama saw that the world was changing with technology and that old jobs would give way to advances in manufacturing. He preferred to think in longer horizons, at times to his own detriment: For Obama, the long-term impact of climate change was existential compared with the short-term threat posed by the Islamic State. 

resolute:断固とした
contain:抑制する
discriminatory:差別扱いをするような
detriment:不利益
existential:存在の

By contrast, Trump's realism is steeped in nationalism and tends to be more myopic in assessing threats. His solution to displaced American labor is to punish foreign trade partners rather than to retool the workforce to adapt to demographic and technological change. Under Trump, climate change concerns will take a back seat to the more immediate desires to ease regulations on business. Rather than play a restrained globalist role, the next president would sooner respect countries' rights to defend themselves, irrespective of the long-term consequences of undermining time-honored collective security arrangements. 

steeped:に満ちている
myopic:近視眼的な
threats:脅威
displaced:収入の道を断たれた
retool:を再編成する
restrained:節度ある
irrespective:に関わらず
time-honored:長年の
collective:総合的な

Though a departure from an already defunct two-state solution in Israel's favor acknowledges the current reality, it also risks further destabilizing the balance of power in the Middle East as Turkey continues its resurgence and multiple civil wars rage on. A short-term escalation with Beijing over trade and Taiwan could cost Washington a much bigger strategic discussion over China's attempts to achieve parity with the United States in numerous spheres, from cyberspace to the seas. 

defunct:機能停止した
resurgence:再燃
rage:激しく続く
achieve parity with:との武力均衡を達成する

Keeping the World on Its Toes
Perhaps the greatest difference between the Obama and Trump foreign policies lies in what may be Trump's biggest virtue: his unpredictability. Obama has been criticized as overly cautious in his foreign policy and thus too much of a known entity for U.S. adversaries. Trump, on the other hand, gives the impression that he is willing to throw caution to the wind and rely on instinct in shaping foreign policy. This matters immensely for U.S. allies and adversaries alike that have to be kept on their toes in developing their long-term strategy while avoiding the unexpected with the world's superpower. 

Keeping the World on Its Toes:世界を警戒させる
virtue:利点・長所
unpredictability:気まぐれ
overly:過度に
too much of a:度がすぎる
known entity: to decision-makers carries the implication that they will never need to consult with you because they'll always know what you would say
wind:一か八かに賭ける
matters:重要である
immensely:極めて

Regardless of who occupies the presidency, the United States' strong geopolitical foundation gives it options. As opposed to more vulnerable countries in less forgiving locales, the United States, buffered as it is by two vast oceans, can debate the merits of isolationism and intervention. George Kennan, a diplomat during the Cold War era, may have captured the immense power of the country's unpredictability best: 

As opposed to:とは対照的に
 forgiving:ゆったりした
locales:場面
captured:うまく表現する

"[American democracy is like] one of those prehistoric monsters with a body as long as this room and a brain the size of a pin: He lives there in his comfortable primeval mud and pays little attention to his environment; he is slow to wrath — in fact, you practically have to whack his tail off to make him aware that his interests are being disturbed; but, once he grasps this, he lays about him with such blind determination that he not only destroys his adversary but largely wrecks his native habitat." 

prehistoric:有史以前の
as long as:なのだから
room:場所
primeval:原始時代の
wrath:怒り
whack:叩き斬る
lays:激しく殴打する
wrecks:ダメにする
habitat:生息地

Aloofness in international affairs is a geopolitical luxury, but it cannot be taken for granted. That may be the basis for the Trump doctrine. 

Aloofness:無関心

オバマも2008年には保護主義も考えていた。ただ彼は短期的なISILの課題もさることながら気象変動のような長期的な視点でものを考えていた。それに比べて、トランプは外交政策において近視眼的であり、気まぐれな対応をしている。台湾への対応のように一か八かの賭けをするので、世界が彼の行動を警戒している。アメリカは2つの大洋に挟まれているので、孤立主義とか他国への干渉を大様に議論することができるのだろう。

トランプは国際的な物事にビジネスのように直感的な対応をしようとしているが、果たしてそうした行動に対して世界はどう対応していくのだろうか。世界の出来事はやっぱりこの方がいいとかこっちがまずいとかその場で判断していたら、とんでもないことになるだろう。彼にはそうしたところがある。長期的な視点とかグローバルな視点は持っていなさそうだ。政治に賭けが必要なときもあるが、博打場ではない。そうした意味で、かなりあぶなっかしい船出かもしれない。プーチンがうまくやっているので、トランプもうまくいくのかもしれない。

火曜日。昨日は1日、慰安婦の資料更新と本書き、本読みに終始した。今日の昼は元日立化成の武田さんと会食。午後は弁護士と打ち合わせ。空いた時間は昨日と一緒。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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