The State of the Islamic State
The Islamic State will lose power elsewhere too. Military campaigns in Iraq and Syria will degrade the group as a conventional military force but will do little to degrade it as terrorist or insurgent force. Dispersed throughout the areas they once controlled, remnants of the Islamic State will remain relevant by exploiting ethnic and sectarian divisions throughout Iraq and Syria. Terrorist attacks will therefore return to Iraq in spectacular form. (Despite the military setbacks in Iraq, the Islamic State will have a little more latitude to operate in Syria, where the coalition effort to fight Islamic State is far more convoluted.)

campaigns；軍事行動
insurgent：暴徒
Dispersed ：分散した
remnants：残党
relevant：現実の問題の直結する
ethnic：民族的な
sectarian ：宗派間の
spectacular：目覚ましい
latitude：することをより広く許容する
convoluted：入り組んだ

Islamic State attacks abroad, however, will be a much more limited threat. Militants returning home from Iraq and Syria are certainly a risk for Western countries, but they are a risk that will be mitigated by heightened awareness and intelligence oversight and increased risk of interdiction. More resourceful grassroots terrorists that do not have to rely on extensive networks and capabilities will be the bigger threat from Islamic State in 2017, especially for the West.

mitigated：和らげる
oversight：監視
interdiction：阻止

While the Islamic State has commanded the attention of the international community, al Qaeda has been quietly rebuilding itself, honing its capabilities in multiple theaters to stage its comeback. Al Qaeda nodes that have restyled themselves under various names in Libya, Algeria, Mali, Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen are likely to become more active and influential. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is particularly concerning. The tacit agreement it had with Saudi Arabia in Yemen has broken down, making the kingdom a viable target for the jihadist group.

commanded the attention：注目を集める
honing：に注意を向ける
nodes ：中心点
concerning：気がかりだ
tacit：暗黙の

Jihadists will remain active elsewhere, too, though their attacks will be relatively unsophisticated. If attacks become more complex in places like Indonesia and Bangladesh, it means more experienced fighters in the Middle East successfully found their way back home.

unsophisticated：お粗末な

In Nigeria, Wilayat al Sudan al Gharbi, better known by its former name, Boko Haram, will continue to adopt al Qaeda's targeting strategy, which focuses on military and Western targets while refraining from attacking civilians and Muslims. The faction of the group under the leadership of Abubaker Shekau, however, will continue to attack mosques, Muslims, markets, civilians and other soft targets.

faction：派閥

シリアやイラクにおけるISILの軍事行動は衰えていくが、今度はテロとしてシリアで展開されていくだろう。こうしたテロは海外においてはそうしたテロに対しての監視の目が厳しくなるので、数多くが起こることはない。それよりも草の根のテロ活動の方が西側諸国にとっては脅威かもしれない。またアルカイダが再び勢力を拡大していくだろう。特にイエメンをはじめとしたアラビア半島での彼らの活動が懸念される。ジハーディストは今は対したことはないが、力をつけてくるとWilayat al Sudan al Gharbi（以前のBoko Haram）のように脅威になってくるだろう。

Israel Emboldened
2017 will present Israel with a variety of opportunities, the biggest of which will come from its security guarantor, the United States. With Republicans firmly in control of the executive and legislative branches of government in the U.S., Israel will have freer rein to pursue its interests without rebuke. The country will benefit from a more assertive U.S. policy on Iran, and through Washington may try to place even more restrictions on Iranian uranium enrichment — after all, the new U.S. administration is liable to be more receptive to intelligence collected on Iran, especially if it points to infractions of the nuclear deal.

Emboldened：元気付ける
guarantor：保証人
rein：主導権を握る
rebuke：非難
assertive：積極的な
liable：しがちだ
receptive：物分かりの良い
infractions：違反行為

An emboldened Israel will also probably accelerate settlement development in the West Bank, even if doing so incites attacks from Palestinian militants. An escalation in Israeli-Palestinian frictions will stress Israel's relationships with Jordan and Egypt, both facing internal stresses of their own. (The Palestinian issue will also notably be a source of competition between Turkey and Egypt. Ankara will try to develop better relations with Palestinian groups while managing a normalized but still tense relationship with Israel.)

incites：を誘発する
stress ：に圧力を加える・緊張
notably：顕著に
normalized：正常化する

But 2017 will also present Israel with a variety of challenges. To its north, it will have to contend with Hezbollah, arguably more powerful and experienced than it has been in years thanks to its heavy participation in the Syrian civil war. But Hezbollah has its hands full. It will consolidate territory in Syria for regime loyalists, it will fend off political challenges in Lebanon and it will meanwhile keep its eye on Israel. Worried about Hezbollah's military strength, cognizant that it will have a window of opportunity, and unencumbered by Washington's reproach, Israel is likely to intensify its operations in Syria and Lebanon in an attempt to weaken Hezbollah and limit their access to advanced weaponry.

contend：争う
arguably：おそらく
consolidate：強固にする
fend：攻撃をかわす
meanwhile：一方では
cognizant：気がついて
window：一瞬の好機
unencumbered：邪魔されない
reproach：非難

イスラエルは今年は様々は好機が訪れるだろう。特にアメリカがイスラエルの後ろ盾になって、イランに対してもイスラエルに有利に動いて行くことになる。West Bankへの入植も加速するだろう。イスラエルとパレスチナの関係が悪化するとエジプトとヨルダンに対してのイスラエルととの関係も緊張を増して行くだろう。彼ら自身の国内自体も緊張状態にあるが。ヒズボラがシリアの内戦で力をつけてきている。イスラエルはアメリカが非難しないことをいいことに、シリアとレバノンでヒズボラを弱体化させようとするだろう。

このStratforの２０１７年の予測はこれで終了。

月曜日。昨日は研修資料の作成と本書き。今朝は朝会と昼は娘と昼食。ではまた明日。