2017年01月27日

ロシアの次の敵は誰か?

The Hunt for Russia's Next Enemy
Global Affairs JANUARY 14, 2017 | 14:11 GMT By Ksenia Semenova Stratfor
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during his annual press conference in Moscow on Dec. 23, 2016. 

ロシアの次の敵は誰か?




The election of a U.S. presidential candidate who is friendly to Moscow has undermined Putin's entire diplomatic strategy. (ALEXEI DRUZHININ/AFP/Getty Images)

undermined:蝕む

Editor's Note: The Global Affairs column is curated by Stratfor's board of contributors, a diverse group of thinkers whose expertise inspires rigorous and innovative thought. Their opinions are their own and serve to complement and even challenge our beliefs. We welcome that challenge, and we hope our readers do too. 

curated:企画する
rigorous:厳格な

Alexander III, the conservative Russian emperor who ruled from 1881 to 1894, once famously remarked to his ministers that Russia has only two allies: its army and its navy. "The others," he said, "will go against us at the first opportunity." 

at the first opportunity:チャンスがあり次第

Russian President Vladimir Putin recalled these words in a 2015 speech, adding that he quite agreed with them. At the time, Putin held every card he needed to point to the West and proclaim that the world stood against Russia, leaving it with only its forces for protection. But as the incoming administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump moves to embrace Russia and question the West's assumptions about NATO — just as the Europeans have begun to look for warmer ties to the east — Russia's diplomatic environment has started to change. And one thing Putin certainly understands, as Alexander III did, is the Russian government's need for an external enemy. This raises the question: In the new strategic environment that is emerging, who will that enemy be? 

proclaim:公然と述べる

Replacing a Longtime Rival
For a century, with the exception of a few brief moments, the United States has been Russia's main adversary. After all, blaming the Americans for all of Russia's woes was a matter of convenience: The Kremlin simply fanned the flames of hatred, keeping its population's attention fixed far from the problems unfolding inside its borders. 

woes:苦難
unfolding:展開する

But for the most part, Russia considers Trump a friend — at least from my vantage point in Moscow. During the presidential primaries, Russia's state-run television stations enthusiastically praised him, almost as if we Russians were preparing to vote for him, rather than the Americans. Many parts of the country — including the Kremlin, judging by its forgiving response to Washington's recent expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats — have since celebrated his victory. 

vantage:有利な観点
primaries:予備選挙

What is Global Affairs?
In losing an enemy, though, Russia seems to have gained a new problem. The country's enmity toward America has long been the lifeblood of Russian politics, and without it, Moscow seems bent on finding a replacement — perhaps even one inside Russia. 

enmity:敵意

Enemy of the State
In 2011, then-President Dmitri Medvedev called on the ruling United Russia party to endorse Putin's decision to run for the presidency in 2012. He went so far as to declare that, 

"By our common efforts we've managed to preserve and restore our beloved fatherland, our Russia. And we will not give it back to anyone. We will not give it back to those who want to destroy it, to those who deceive people by giving them empty and unfeasible slogans and promises." 

beloved:最愛の
fatherland:祖国
deceive:騙す
unfeasible:実現困難な

This blatant attempt to preserve the party's grip on power through unconstitutional means triggered massive protests. Unrest periodically flared from December 2011 to July 2013, leading to the arrests of more than 5,000 people in Moscow and its outskirts alone. Some of those protesters remain in prison today. 

blatant:露骨な
unconstitutional:憲法違反の

It is no surprise that Putin quickly criminalized protests, even those that were peaceful, after taking office. By July 2014, the Kremlin had instated a law that automatically slapped jail sentences of up to five years on anyone detained at unsanctioned demonstrations more than once in a 180-day span. (And of course, nearly all demonstrations with the exception of pro-government ones are unsanctioned.) Now even a single demonstrator can be considered a threat to the state. The Russian government has also taken to targeting the friends and families of prominent activists, an effort no doubt intended to avoid opposition figures making martyrs of themselves. 

instated:任ずる
unsanctioned:許可されていない
martyrs:自己を犠牲にする

Even so, the Kremlin's crackdown was intended to cow a fairly small audience — the "liberal opposition" — that historically has had little influence on the majority of Russian citizens. In fact, most of the population already supports Putin. But to ensure its continued loyalty, the president has traditionally relied on propaganda and foreign scapegoats. 

cow:脅す

Shifting the Blame
This is by no means a new approach. The Soviet Union made generous use of propaganda — particularly against the United States — in the decades following the 1917 October Revolution. U.S. government hostility to the Soviet Union since its inception greatly aided Moscow's efforts. Washington, for example, backed small anti-Bolshevik groups like the White Army while Vladimir Lenin and his successors denounced the evils of American capitalism. Though the two countries established diplomatic ties in 1933, the acrimony between them remained. 

by no means:けっして〜ではない。
inception:発足
acrimony:とげとげしさ

World War II pulled the United States and Soviet Union into a marriage of convenience. But it did not last long, and when the war came to an end, it was clear that their ideological differences had not been resolved. By 1945, mutual distrust and the fear of Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe had laid the groundwork for the Cold War. The decadeslong struggle between two superpowers began, and a clash of ideological, economic, technological and geopolitical principles engulfed the world. From Moscow's point of view, America — the epitome of the decaying West — was inimical to the socialist paradise that awaited the Soviet empire. 

groundwork:基礎
engulfed:を襲う
epitome:縮図
decaying:腐敗する
inimical:敵対している

When Russia undertook its brief, albeit volatile, democratic experiment in the 1990s, hope that the two states could get along was rekindled. Shortly after Putin rose to power in 2000, however, he began to rebuild the wall between them. Throughout his time in office, Putin has consistently stuck to a single message: When Russia tries to rise from its knees, the United States seeks to knock it back down. 

brief:束の間の
rekindled:再び掻き立てる
rise from its knees:立ちあがる

ロシアがアメリカと仲良くなると今までの問題の源泉を誰にするかが問題になる。プーチンとトランプの今までの関係を見るとアメリカとの関係は良くなってしまう。そうなると誰を今後は敵国をみなしたら良いのか困るという内容だ。確かに、中国とか、韓国を見ていると国民の国内問題に対する目線をそらすために日本が利用されてきた。同じことがこのロシアにも言えるようだ。プーチンの支持率が高いことを考えれば、そうたいした問題ではなさそうに思える。

金曜日。昨日は永山さんと会食をした。今日は1日、本を書くことにする。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

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