2017年01月27日

ロシアの次の敵は誰か?

And for the most part this approach worked well for Putin, aided in no small part by some U.S. policies, including NATO's expansion eastward. No matter how bad things got inside Russia, there was always someone else to pin it on. It wasn't always Washington, either. Europe was occasionally portrayed as Moscow's enemy, especially during Ukraine's Euromaidan uprising in 2014. Nevertheless, no country was as useful a scapegoat as the United States. 

pin it on:責任・罪をなすりつける
either:どちらにしても 
Euromaidan:literally "Euro[pean] Square" was a wave of demonstrations and civil unrest in Ukraine, which began on the night of 21 November 2013 with public protests in Maidan Nezalezhnosti ("Independence Square") in Kiev, demanding closer European integration. 

Opinion polls show just how successful Putin's strategy has been. While 73 percent of Russians think their economy has stagnated, 88 percent are confident in Putin's ability to handle international affairs. Thanks to the Kremlin's propaganda efforts, citizens have also grown nostalgic for their Soviet past; 69 percent believe the dissolution of the Soviet Union hurt Russia. Their views of the West, meanwhile, are at an all-time low: Only 15 percent of Russians see the United States in a positive light, and only 31 percent have a favorable opinion of the European Union. That's the result of a targeted media strategy. That's the result of having an enemy to blame. 

stagnated:停滞する
dissolution:解体
meanwhile:一方では

Big Shoes to Fill
The outcome of the United States' Nov. 9 election may have thrown out Putin's entire playbook. Trump is well-known among the Russian oligarchs: He has business ties with some, and once lived in the same building (the Miami Trump Tower) as others. By all appearances, the relationship between Washington and Moscow seems destined to get much friendlier once Trump takes office. Who, then, will Russian citizens hold accountable for their country's problems? 

have big shoes to fill: 〔優秀だった前任者の後任として〕重責を担う
thrown:却下する
oligarchs:ロシアの新興財閥
By all appearances:外から見る限りでは
hold accountable:国の問題に責任を持つ

Russia's new nemesis should match its ambitions, which are neither small nor insignificant. Europe might fit the bill, but at the moment it has been swept up in a wave of nationalism, a sentiment near and dear to Putin's heart. Europe's far-right political parties espouse socially conservative beliefs that the Russian president has advocated as well, and National Front leader Marine Le Pen has declared Putin a defender of European values. As these far-right parties gain momentum across the Continent, Europe's moderates may be loath to openly oppose Russia as they compete for re-election. 

nemesis:手強い強敵
bill:条件をちょうど満たす
sentiment:感情・考え方
dear:好感の持てる
espouse:支持する
defender :擁護者
loath:することを嫌がる

Perhaps China, then. But alienating the second-largest economy in the world, and a significant source of investment in Russian energy, transport and infrastructure projects, is not a good idea for a country already staggering under the weight of sanctions. Who else? Ukraine? Too small. Africa? Too poor. Australia or New Zealand? Too peaceful, and too distant. Clearly, finding a replacement for the United States is not so simple a task. Even terrorist groups like the Islamic State — a natural enemy to many countries — would not work, because the shared threat they pose encourages more cooperation than antagonism. 

alienating:を疎外する
staggering:よろめく
antagonism:敵対

The Threat From Within
So, Russia will be forced to look inward, searching among its own for a political patsy. In many ways the hunt has already begun: Putin has labeled human rights activists "national traitors," while residents with dual passports or citizenship elsewhere can be fined and possibly deported as spies. Nonprofits, charities and independent polling companies are required to register as "foreign agents" if they receive funding from abroad and are said to be engaged in "political activity" (a term so vague it can be applied to nearly anyone). 

Within:内部から
patsy:カモ
traitors:反逆者
polling:世論調査をする

These institutions are then barred from working with state organizations, and the financial reports they must submit are so complicated that they often get in the way of day-to-day operations. Although there are still a handful of independent media outlets in Russia, they are struggling to survive, and many have had to resort to self-censorship in an effort to avoid exorbitant fines, firings or closure. 

resort:仕方なく頼る
self-censorship:自主検閲
exorbitant:途方もない
firings:解雇

The state has also found an ally in its crackdown: the Russian Orthodox Church. Several extremist groups belonging to the church have earned a reputation for trashing company offices, destroying books deemed heretical, vandalizing artwork and leveling accusations against atheist or opposition bloggers. This, coupled with the Kremlin's own measures, has woven an oppressive blanket over Russian society intended to stifle any voice of dissent. A student who attends his first protest, a man who plays Pokemon Go in a temple, a woman who texts her friend about military tanks passing by — all could be deemed enemies of the state and imprisoned. As it currently stands in Russia, freedoms of speech and expression end the moment they are found to be slanderous to the country or its history, values and way of life. 

trashing:壊す・処分する
heretical:異端の
vandalizing:芸術品を破壊する
leveling:非難を向ける
atheist:無神論者
coupled:と結びつけて 
blanket:覆うもの
stifle:を抑える
slanderous:誹謗中傷の

Under these circumstances every Russian is vulnerable, and it is only a matter of time until people start asking themselves why. In 2012 they did just that, and Putin told protesters that the United States was the cause of their troubles. Now, with no foreign target at the ready, Russia itself could become Putin's worst enemy. If the past five years are any indication, Russians have learned how to organize themselves into groups, whether small gatherings that help the elderly or large volunteer organizations that provide services more effectively than the state. And maybe, if Russians are given the chance to see how broken their country's institutions truly are after decades of government mismanagement, they can take the steps needed to fix them. 

プーチンがアメリカを仮想敵国と看做してきたが、今後はそうでなくなりそうだ。そうなると、国家に対する不満の対象がなくなってしまうので、その対象を探さなければならない。今の所はその対象が海外に見当たらない。そうなると国内のそうした対象を探さなければならなくなる。果たしてそうした組織とか団体はなんだろうか。日ソの関係ではそうしたものは見当たらない。今後プーチンは国内の不満が出てきたときにどう国民に対してその矛先を変えようとするのだろうか。

土曜日。昨日は一日、雑務。午後遅くなってから本を書き出せた。今日は海野塾がある。懇親会もある。楽しい一日だ。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
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