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グローバル人材育成の道｜海野惠一（元アクセンチュア代表）2017年01月29日
Stratforの2017年の予測
2017 Annual Forecast
Forecast DECEMBER 27, 2016 | 13:44 GMT
Stratforの2017年の予測
The convulsions to come in 2017 are the political manifestations of much deeper forces in play. In much of the developed world, the trend of aging demographics and declining productivity is layered with technological innovation and the labor displacement that comes with it.
convulsions：激動
manifestations：政治的示威運動
layered：重層的になって
labor displacement：解雇
China's economic slowdown and its ongoing evolution compound this dynamic. At the same time the world is trying to cope with reduced Chinese demand after decades of record growth, China is also slowly but surely moving its own economy up the value chain to produce and assemble many of the inputs it once imported, with the intent of increasingly selling to itself. All these forces combined will have a dramatic and enduring impact on the global economy and ultimately on the shape of the international system for decades to come.
These long-arching trends tend to quietly build over decades and then noisily surface as the politics catch up. The longer economic pain persists, the stronger the political response. That loud banging at the door is the force of nationalism greeting the world's powers, particularly Europe and the United States, still the only superpower.
long-arching：長い弧を持った 長期的な
Only, the global superpower is not feeling all that super. In fact, it's tired. It was roused in 2001 by a devastating attack on its soil, it overextended itself in wars in the Islamic world, and it now wants to get back to repairing things at home. Indeed, the main theme of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was retrenchment, the idea that the United States will pull back from overseas obligations, get others to carry more of the weight of their own defense, and let the United States focus on boosting economic competitiveness.
roused：目覚めさせる
devastating：破壊的な・衝撃的な
on its soil：アメリカの国土で
overextended：無理をする
retrenchment：費用の削減
Barack Obama already set this trend in motion, of course. Under his presidency, the United States exercised extreme restraint in the Middle East while trying to focus on longer-term challenges — a strategy that, at times, worked to Obama's detriment, as evidenced by the rise of the Islamic State. The main difference between the Obama doctrine and the beginnings of the Trump doctrine is that Obama still believed in collective security and trade as mechanisms to maintain global order; Trump believes the institutions that govern international relations are at best flawed and at worst constrictive of U.S. interests.
detriment：を犠牲にして
evidenced：にわかるように
govern：規定する・統治する
at best：良くても
flawed：欠陥があり
at worst：最悪の場合は
constrictive：制限する
No matter the approach, retrenchment is easier said than done for a global superpower. As Woodrow Wilson said, "Americans are participants, like it or not, in the life of the world." The words of America's icon of idealism ring true even as realism is tightening its embrace on the world.
participants：参加者
icon ：像・象徴
ring true： 真実のように思える かつて、弾いた音で、硬貨が本物か偽造か見分けたことから
embrace：容認
Revising trade relationships the way Washington intends to, for example, may have been feasible a couple decades ago. But that is no longer tenable in the current and evolving global order where technological advancements in manufacturing are proceeding apace and where economies, large and small, have been tightly interlocked in global supply chains. This means that the United States is not going to be able to make sweeping and sudden changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement. In fact, even if the trade deal is renegotiated, North America will still have tighter trade relations in the long term.
feasible：実現可能な
tenable：維持できる
apace：迅速に進展する
interlocked：絡み合う
The United States will, however, have more space to selectively impose trade barriers with China, particularly in the metals sector. And the risk of a rising trade spat with Beijing will reverberate far and wide. Washington's willingness to question the "One China" policy – something it did to extract trade concessions from China – will come at a cost: Beijing will pull its own trade and security levers that will inevitably draw the United States into the Pacific theater.
spat：口論
reverberate：影響を及ぼす
concessions ：譲歩
come at a cost：高くつく
pull：レバーを引く 加速させる
But the timing isn't right for a trade dispute. Trump would rather focus on matters at home, and Chinese President Xi Jinping would rather focus on consolidating political power ahead of the 19th Party Congress. And so economic stability will take priority over reform and restructuring. This means Beijing will expand credit and state-led investment, even if those tools are growing duller and raising China's corporate debt levels to dangerous heights.
expand credit：融資を拡大する
duller：活気のない
先進国においては高齢化と生産性の低下の傾向とともに、一方では技術革新とその結果による解雇を伴って来ている。２０年前であれば貿易を守るような保護主義を考えることができたかもしれないが、今世界がサプライチェーンでリンクしているので、そうしたことはできない。NAFTAを見直そうとトランプはしているが、それは合理的ではない。中国は今年は党大会がある。そのため日中は国内に改革の努力を向けるべきだろう。
そもそもトランプが言っているメキシコの壁とか貿易課税とかはその言葉通りとすればナンセンスだ。彼が雇用をそうすることによって確保できるというのは幻想でしかない。製造業がアメリカで後退したのは発展途上国の台頭だけではない。そうしたことをきちんと分析せずに、トランプがアクションしたとすれば、アメリカだけでなく世界の経済が混乱する。
今日からしばらくはこのStratforの２０１７年予測の資料を解説する。大人しそうな描き出しだが、明らかにトランプの対外政策を批判している。そのとおりで、彼の大統領令の表面的な行為だけを見る限りは節操がないということだ。
月曜日。昨日は研修資料のレビューがあった。今日の昼はいつもの昼食会がある。今日は二十五人以上が来るので、大変だ。夜は中山さんの親睦会がある。ではまた明日。
Forecast DECEMBER 27, 2016 | 13:44 GMT
Stratforの2017年の予測
The convulsions to come in 2017 are the political manifestations of much deeper forces in play. In much of the developed world, the trend of aging demographics and declining productivity is layered with technological innovation and the labor displacement that comes with it.
convulsions：激動
manifestations：政治的示威運動
layered：重層的になって
labor displacement：解雇
China's economic slowdown and its ongoing evolution compound this dynamic. At the same time the world is trying to cope with reduced Chinese demand after decades of record growth, China is also slowly but surely moving its own economy up the value chain to produce and assemble many of the inputs it once imported, with the intent of increasingly selling to itself. All these forces combined will have a dramatic and enduring impact on the global economy and ultimately on the shape of the international system for decades to come.
These long-arching trends tend to quietly build over decades and then noisily surface as the politics catch up. The longer economic pain persists, the stronger the political response. That loud banging at the door is the force of nationalism greeting the world's powers, particularly Europe and the United States, still the only superpower.
long-arching：長い弧を持った 長期的な
Only, the global superpower is not feeling all that super. In fact, it's tired. It was roused in 2001 by a devastating attack on its soil, it overextended itself in wars in the Islamic world, and it now wants to get back to repairing things at home. Indeed, the main theme of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's campaign was retrenchment, the idea that the United States will pull back from overseas obligations, get others to carry more of the weight of their own defense, and let the United States focus on boosting economic competitiveness.
roused：目覚めさせる
devastating：破壊的な・衝撃的な
on its soil：アメリカの国土で
overextended：無理をする
retrenchment：費用の削減
Barack Obama already set this trend in motion, of course. Under his presidency, the United States exercised extreme restraint in the Middle East while trying to focus on longer-term challenges — a strategy that, at times, worked to Obama's detriment, as evidenced by the rise of the Islamic State. The main difference between the Obama doctrine and the beginnings of the Trump doctrine is that Obama still believed in collective security and trade as mechanisms to maintain global order; Trump believes the institutions that govern international relations are at best flawed and at worst constrictive of U.S. interests.
detriment：を犠牲にして
evidenced：にわかるように
govern：規定する・統治する
at best：良くても
flawed：欠陥があり
at worst：最悪の場合は
constrictive：制限する
No matter the approach, retrenchment is easier said than done for a global superpower. As Woodrow Wilson said, "Americans are participants, like it or not, in the life of the world." The words of America's icon of idealism ring true even as realism is tightening its embrace on the world.
participants：参加者
icon ：像・象徴
ring true： 真実のように思える かつて、弾いた音で、硬貨が本物か偽造か見分けたことから
embrace：容認
Revising trade relationships the way Washington intends to, for example, may have been feasible a couple decades ago. But that is no longer tenable in the current and evolving global order where technological advancements in manufacturing are proceeding apace and where economies, large and small, have been tightly interlocked in global supply chains. This means that the United States is not going to be able to make sweeping and sudden changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement. In fact, even if the trade deal is renegotiated, North America will still have tighter trade relations in the long term.
feasible：実現可能な
tenable：維持できる
apace：迅速に進展する
interlocked：絡み合う
The United States will, however, have more space to selectively impose trade barriers with China, particularly in the metals sector. And the risk of a rising trade spat with Beijing will reverberate far and wide. Washington's willingness to question the "One China" policy – something it did to extract trade concessions from China – will come at a cost: Beijing will pull its own trade and security levers that will inevitably draw the United States into the Pacific theater.
spat：口論
reverberate：影響を及ぼす
concessions ：譲歩
come at a cost：高くつく
pull：レバーを引く 加速させる
But the timing isn't right for a trade dispute. Trump would rather focus on matters at home, and Chinese President Xi Jinping would rather focus on consolidating political power ahead of the 19th Party Congress. And so economic stability will take priority over reform and restructuring. This means Beijing will expand credit and state-led investment, even if those tools are growing duller and raising China's corporate debt levels to dangerous heights.
expand credit：融資を拡大する
duller：活気のない
先進国においては高齢化と生産性の低下の傾向とともに、一方では技術革新とその結果による解雇を伴って来ている。２０年前であれば貿易を守るような保護主義を考えることができたかもしれないが、今世界がサプライチェーンでリンクしているので、そうしたことはできない。NAFTAを見直そうとトランプはしているが、それは合理的ではない。中国は今年は党大会がある。そのため日中は国内に改革の努力を向けるべきだろう。
そもそもトランプが言っているメキシコの壁とか貿易課税とかはその言葉通りとすればナンセンスだ。彼が雇用をそうすることによって確保できるというのは幻想でしかない。製造業がアメリカで後退したのは発展途上国の台頭だけではない。そうしたことをきちんと分析せずに、トランプがアクションしたとすれば、アメリカだけでなく世界の経済が混乱する。
今日からしばらくはこのStratforの２０１７年予測の資料を解説する。大人しそうな描き出しだが、明らかにトランプの対外政策を批判している。そのとおりで、彼の大統領令の表面的な行為だけを見る限りは節操がないということだ。
月曜日。昨日は研修資料のレビューがあった。今日の昼はいつもの昼食会がある。今日は二十五人以上が来るので、大変だ。夜は中山さんの親睦会がある。ではまた明日。
