2017年02月03日

Stratforの2017年の予測(5)

Security and immigration will feature prominently in the German electoral campaign. The right-wing opposition, and even some members of Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition, will push for tougher immigration legislation and for granting more resources to security forces. The general election will show that German voters are willing to support smaller parties on the left and on the right. This will probably lead to a more divided parliament and to difficult coalition talks. While the nationalists may perform well enough to get some members into the legislature, they will be excluded from coalition negotiations. 

feature:重要である
prominently:顕著に

What could force Germany to take a more decisive role in the European Union, however, would be a victory by the Euroskeptic forces in France or Italy. If that happens, Berlin would try to preserve the bloc and reach an understanding with the rebel governments to introduce internal reform. But the government in Berlin would also hedge its bets by making plans with its regional allies in the event the European Union and eurozone do, in fact, disintegrate. 

rebel :反抗する
hedge its bet:両面作戦を取る
disintegrate:崩壊させる・分解する

As for Italy, political uncertainty, fragile banks, low economic growth and high debt levels will once again raise questions about the future of the eurozone's third-largest country – and about the currency union as a whole. Italy's caretaker government will be weak, and early elections are possible. No matter who is in charge, the Italian government will push for flexibility on EU fiscal targets and demand solidarity from its EU partners to deal with the immigration crisis. The government in Rome will also be ready to act unilaterally and criticize the European Union to achieve its goals. 

as a whole:ひとまとめで言うと
caretaker:暫定的な
unilaterally :一方的に

If Italy holds early elections, the fear of a victory by anti-establishment forces would hurt Italian banks, raise borrowing costs and generate pressure on the euro. A victory of the Euroskeptics would put Italy on a collision course with the European Union. The first reaction by Germany and EU institutions would be to accommodate the new government in Rome and try to prevent it from putting membership in the eurozone to a vote. In the long run, however, that kind of referendum will be difficult to avoid. In 2017, therefore, Italy will be one of the greatest risks to the currency area. 

collision:衝突進路
accommodate:に配慮する
vote:票決にかける

The Netherlands, one of the eurozone's wealthiest countries and an important player in Northern Europe, will hold a general election in March. As in other eurozone countries, Euroskeptic and anti-immigration forces there will have a prominent role, showing that discontent with the status quo is strong. Even in the likely case the Euroskeptics fail to access power, their influence will force the Dutch government to become more and more critical of the European Union, resisting plans to deepen Continental integration and siding with other Northern European countries in their criticism of events in the south. If events in France and Italy bring about the collapse of the eurozone, the Netherlands would react by continuing to work with Germany and other Northern European countries. 

Elsewhere, in the European periphery, the minority government of Spain will be forced to negotiate with the opposition on legislation, leading to a complex decision-making process and to pressures to reverse some of the reforms that were introduced during the height of the economic crisis. Catalonia will continue to push for its independence as its government challenges Madrid in some instances, ignores it entirely in others, and negotiates with it when necessary. Even if negotiations to ease frictions between Madrid and Catalonia take place, the central government will not authorize a legal referendum on independence, and Catalonia will not abandon its plans of holding it. Tensions will remain high in 2017, but Catalonia will not unilaterally declare independence this year. 

In Greece, the government will continue pushing its creditors for additional measures of debt relief, but because of the German elections there will be little progress on the issue. With debt relief temporarily off the table, Athens will demand lower fiscal surplus targets and will reject additional spending cuts. Relations between Athens and its creditors will be tense, but there should be room for compromise. The resignation of the Greek government is possible, albeit improbable, considering that the emergence of opposition forces in the country makes the outcome of early elections highly uncertain – and the government has no guarantee of retaining power. 

off the table:棚上げされて
improbable:起こりそうにない

ドイツは移民と安全保障が選挙の争点になるだろう。何れにしても移民のせいで、票が割れるのでメルケルが今までのように、リードしていくことは難しくなるだろう。また、フランスやイタリーを抑えて、分裂を避けて、EUを引っ張っていくことも容易ではない。一方で、イタリーは政治的に不安定で、脆弱な銀行と低経済成長、高い債務比率がこの国を悩ませている。ユーロ懐疑派が勝つと彼らをユーロに引き止めることが難しくなる。そのうちに国民投票をすることになるだろう。オランダはユーロ懐疑派が強く、反移民の勢力が大きいのだが、フランスとかイタリーが分裂の動きに出ても、ドイツを支援してくだろう。スペインはカタロニアの独立運動があるが、今年はおとなしくしているだろう。ギリシャは追加のベイルアウトを期待しているが、ドイツの選挙があるので、棚上げされるだろう。ギリシャの選挙の可能性はなきにしもあらず。

金曜日。昨日はSCSKの有澤さんと会食。5冊目の本が500冊届いた。今日は東レ経営研究所の吉田社長、増田様と夕食。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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