2017年03月26日
北朝鮮の脅威はもはや笑い事ではない。 金正恩もしくは彼のエスカレートしている攻撃的な行動をどう扱っていいのかだれにもわからない。
The threat from North Korea is no laughing matter
No one knows how to handle Kim Jong Un or his escalating belligerence
MARCH 15, 2017 by: Roula Khalaf
北朝鮮の脅威はもはや笑い事ではない。
金正恩もしくは彼のエスカレートしている攻撃的な行動をどう扱っていいのかだれにもわからない。
Soon after Donald Trump’s inauguration, a joke made the rounds on Twitter, picturing a laughing, spiky-haired Kim Jong Un.
“I no longer craziest leader,” screamed the headline.
It was brilliantly funny — for a moment. Since then, the North Korean dictator has proceeded to show that he remains unchallenged for the title. He has taunted his neighbours with new ballistic missile tests and staged an extraordinary plot to assassinate his half-brother with a nerve gas agent.
spiky:スパイク状の
screamed:甲高い声でさけぶ
brilliantly:見事に
taunted:嘲ける
agent:化学変化を起こす物質
I thought about the joke the other day while listening to a diplomat describe Mr Trump’s unpredictability as an asset in dealing with North Korea. The argument went like this: Mr Kim might be deterred if he believed that the US president was as unhinged as he was. Peace on the Korean peninsula, in other words, may hinge on whether he buys into the Twitter meme. Not exactly reassuring.
unpredictability:行動の読めないこと
asset:有用なもの
deterred:思いとどまらせる
unhinged:動揺する
hinge:次第である
meme:遺伝氏のように人々の心から心へと遺伝子のように伝播する情報
reassuring:安心だ
That such a prospect is a topic of discussion, though, underscores an uncomfortable truth: that no one has a clue how to handle Mr Kim or contain his escalating belligerence. Is he really crazy or does he just like to behave as if he is? Is he growing increasingly confident or desperately insecure?
belligerence:攻撃的な態度
as if he is:そのままの彼であるかのように
insecure:不安である
Yet the clock is ticking. Singularly focused on his nuclear programme, no matter the consequences for his own population, Mr Kim’s regime will, in a matter of years, have the capability to strike US territory with nuclear weapons. Think of any kind of pressure, however, and it has been tried already, with limited impact if any at all. That includes sanctions. It also includes diplomacy. When the north was ruled by Mr Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, the “Six Party Talks” between North Korea, the US, China, Russia, South Korea and Japan that began in 2003 produced an agreement to close nuclear facilities, but were dead two years later when Pyongyang walked out. Meanwhile, military action is not a credible threat, unless one is willing to risk a retaliation that blows up South Korea. Cyber warfare to sabotage missile test launches has been attempted too, but it is not clear whether it has been effective.
Singularly:際立って・特に
population:国民・人々
if any at all:少しでもあるとしたら
walked:突然やめる
credible:確実な
sabotage:破壊する
Throwing the ball into China’s court has been convenient and, to a certain extent, rational since Mr Kim’s regime is dependent on Chinese support. But China is in a bind, and it cannot handle North Korea on its own. It has tried to contain Pyongyang but does not seem able to control it. It is not in a position to provide the regime with the security guarantees it craves and is getting increasingly agitated about the expanding US military role in its neighbourhood, in particular the deployment of the Thaad anti-ballistic missile defence system in South Korea. No wonder the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, warned last week that the US and North Korea were “like two accelerating trains coming towards each other with neither side willing to give way”.
convenient:都合の良い
rational:理にかなった
in a bind:困って
craves:切望する
agitated:扇動する
Mr Trump may be too busy fighting fictional wars at home to focus on such messy trouble so far away. At some point soon, though, he will no longer have a choice. His predecessor, Barack Obama, warned him as much during the transition. His lieutenants are now reviewing policy on North Korea, and US experts have produced reams of copy about how to deal with the North Korean supreme leader.
fictional:架空の
so far away:非常に遠い
as much:それくらい
lieutenants:副官・中佐
reams:大量の
Some suggest an ugly, but perhaps necessary compromise: to avoid a war, the world must accept Mr Kim, giving him assurances that the US doesn’t seek to topple him. If he is more secure at home, he might miraculously turn into a semi-responsible member of the international community. Others dismiss this as appeasement and call for harsher sanctions against North Korea and China. And still others say go to war and threaten to nuke the north if it retaliates against the south.
ugly:不穏な
appeasement:譲歩
Given the high stakes, and the risk that Mr Kim is as unstable as his image suggests, it is clearly time for serious diplomacy, backed up with the threat of even tougher sanctions. Talks may never achieve a complete nuclear disarmament but even a freeze on the nuclear programme in the short term is worth a try. It may be difficult to imagine Mr Kim standing next to Mr Trump at the White House but it is not as wild a thought as the alternatives in this crisis.
北朝鮮の扱いをどうするか難しい問題だ。トランプがどういうオプションを取るのか。譲歩か戦争か。金正恩がホワイトハウスでトランプの隣に立つことを想像することはしがたいことだが、原爆を北朝鮮に落とすよりマシだろう。果たしてここ数年で彼はどうしようとするのだろうか。中国は相変わらず、動こうとはしないだろう。
国防長官がマティスなので、極めて冷静に動くだろう。今のままであれば、韓国を核攻撃してくるかもしれない。アメリカはそうしたことが起こるまでは動かないだろう。でも数年以内にそれが起こった時にはアメリカは北朝鮮に対して、核は使わないで、爆撃するだろう。平壌と核施設を1週間で完全に破壊するだろう。ただ1週間の間に、数発の核ミサイルが発射されるので、それをどうするかが最大の課題になるだろう。この数年で、どう対応するかを決めなければならない。
月曜日。今日も7冊目の本書きだ。アクセンチュア時代を描いている。ではまた明日。
No one knows how to handle Kim Jong Un or his escalating belligerence
MARCH 15, 2017 by: Roula Khalaf
北朝鮮の脅威はもはや笑い事ではない。
金正恩もしくは彼のエスカレートしている攻撃的な行動をどう扱っていいのかだれにもわからない。
Soon after Donald Trump’s inauguration, a joke made the rounds on Twitter, picturing a laughing, spiky-haired Kim Jong Un.
“I no longer craziest leader,” screamed the headline.
It was brilliantly funny — for a moment. Since then, the North Korean dictator has proceeded to show that he remains unchallenged for the title. He has taunted his neighbours with new ballistic missile tests and staged an extraordinary plot to assassinate his half-brother with a nerve gas agent.
spiky:スパイク状の
screamed:甲高い声でさけぶ
brilliantly:見事に
taunted:嘲ける
agent:化学変化を起こす物質
I thought about the joke the other day while listening to a diplomat describe Mr Trump’s unpredictability as an asset in dealing with North Korea. The argument went like this: Mr Kim might be deterred if he believed that the US president was as unhinged as he was. Peace on the Korean peninsula, in other words, may hinge on whether he buys into the Twitter meme. Not exactly reassuring.
unpredictability:行動の読めないこと
asset:有用なもの
deterred:思いとどまらせる
unhinged:動揺する
hinge:次第である
meme:遺伝氏のように人々の心から心へと遺伝子のように伝播する情報
reassuring:安心だ
That such a prospect is a topic of discussion, though, underscores an uncomfortable truth: that no one has a clue how to handle Mr Kim or contain his escalating belligerence. Is he really crazy or does he just like to behave as if he is? Is he growing increasingly confident or desperately insecure?
belligerence:攻撃的な態度
as if he is:そのままの彼であるかのように
insecure:不安である
Yet the clock is ticking. Singularly focused on his nuclear programme, no matter the consequences for his own population, Mr Kim’s regime will, in a matter of years, have the capability to strike US territory with nuclear weapons. Think of any kind of pressure, however, and it has been tried already, with limited impact if any at all. That includes sanctions. It also includes diplomacy. When the north was ruled by Mr Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, the “Six Party Talks” between North Korea, the US, China, Russia, South Korea and Japan that began in 2003 produced an agreement to close nuclear facilities, but were dead two years later when Pyongyang walked out. Meanwhile, military action is not a credible threat, unless one is willing to risk a retaliation that blows up South Korea. Cyber warfare to sabotage missile test launches has been attempted too, but it is not clear whether it has been effective.
Singularly:際立って・特に
population:国民・人々
if any at all:少しでもあるとしたら
walked:突然やめる
credible:確実な
sabotage:破壊する
Throwing the ball into China’s court has been convenient and, to a certain extent, rational since Mr Kim’s regime is dependent on Chinese support. But China is in a bind, and it cannot handle North Korea on its own. It has tried to contain Pyongyang but does not seem able to control it. It is not in a position to provide the regime with the security guarantees it craves and is getting increasingly agitated about the expanding US military role in its neighbourhood, in particular the deployment of the Thaad anti-ballistic missile defence system in South Korea. No wonder the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, warned last week that the US and North Korea were “like two accelerating trains coming towards each other with neither side willing to give way”.
convenient:都合の良い
rational:理にかなった
in a bind:困って
craves:切望する
agitated:扇動する
Mr Trump may be too busy fighting fictional wars at home to focus on such messy trouble so far away. At some point soon, though, he will no longer have a choice. His predecessor, Barack Obama, warned him as much during the transition. His lieutenants are now reviewing policy on North Korea, and US experts have produced reams of copy about how to deal with the North Korean supreme leader.
fictional:架空の
so far away:非常に遠い
as much:それくらい
lieutenants:副官・中佐
reams:大量の
Some suggest an ugly, but perhaps necessary compromise: to avoid a war, the world must accept Mr Kim, giving him assurances that the US doesn’t seek to topple him. If he is more secure at home, he might miraculously turn into a semi-responsible member of the international community. Others dismiss this as appeasement and call for harsher sanctions against North Korea and China. And still others say go to war and threaten to nuke the north if it retaliates against the south.
ugly:不穏な
appeasement:譲歩
Given the high stakes, and the risk that Mr Kim is as unstable as his image suggests, it is clearly time for serious diplomacy, backed up with the threat of even tougher sanctions. Talks may never achieve a complete nuclear disarmament but even a freeze on the nuclear programme in the short term is worth a try. It may be difficult to imagine Mr Kim standing next to Mr Trump at the White House but it is not as wild a thought as the alternatives in this crisis.
北朝鮮の扱いをどうするか難しい問題だ。トランプがどういうオプションを取るのか。譲歩か戦争か。金正恩がホワイトハウスでトランプの隣に立つことを想像することはしがたいことだが、原爆を北朝鮮に落とすよりマシだろう。果たしてここ数年で彼はどうしようとするのだろうか。中国は相変わらず、動こうとはしないだろう。
国防長官がマティスなので、極めて冷静に動くだろう。今のままであれば、韓国を核攻撃してくるかもしれない。アメリカはそうしたことが起こるまでは動かないだろう。でも数年以内にそれが起こった時にはアメリカは北朝鮮に対して、核は使わないで、爆撃するだろう。平壌と核施設を1週間で完全に破壊するだろう。ただ1週間の間に、数発の核ミサイルが発射されるので、それをどうするかが最大の課題になるだろう。この数年で、どう対応するかを決めなければならない。
月曜日。今日も7冊目の本書きだ。アクセンチュア時代を描いている。ではまた明日。