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グローバル人材育成の道｜海野惠一（元アクセンチュア代表）2017年02月25日
アメリカ。中国 そして 貿易戦争の危険 貿易の緊張が増すだろう。しかし壊滅的な貿易戦争は依然として回避することはできる。
America, China and the risk of a trade war
Trade tensions will mount, but a destructive trade war can still be averted
Jan 28th 2017
アメリカ。中国 そして 貿易戦争の危険
貿易の緊張が増すだろう。しかし壊滅的な貿易戦争は依然として回避することはできる。
DONALD TRUMP’S quest to protect American workers from cheating foreigners has begun. But in his first flurry of policy tweets and executive orders, China, his favourite bogeyman, was conspicuously absent. On the campaign trail he deplored China’s currency manipulation, accused it of flouting global trade rules and threatened a 45% tariff on its exports, all to cheering crowds. Now, the world is waiting to see how much of this he meant.
quest：探求・追求
cheating：騙し取る
flurry：一陣の疾風
favourite：お気に入りの
bogeyman：おばけ・恐れられて嫌がる人
conspicuously：目だって
deplored：強く非難する
flouting：無視する
The promise to label China a currency manipulator has not been repeated. An optimistic interpretation is that Mr Trump has realised that the promise was based on an “alternative” fact. China is no longer squashing its currency to gain a competitive edge, but is instead propping it up. A pessimistic one is that Steven Mnuchin, his treasury secretary, who would do the labelling, is not yet confirmed by the Senate.
squashing：を止める
propping：テコ入れをする
labelling：レッテルを張る
Steven Mnuchin：2017年2月13日、上院で財務長官への就任が正式に承認された。
Mr Trump certainly has the power to wreak trade havoc. A big blanket tariff would slice through supply chains, hurt American consumers and fly in the face of the global system of trade rules overseen by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). But, rather than blow up the world’s trading system, Mr Trump may yet decide to take on China within it. The White House website, without naming China, promises “to use every tool at the federal government’s disposal” to end trade abuses.
havoc：貿易に大混乱をもたらす
slice：簡単にさっと切る
fly in the face of：を無視して行動する
overseen：監視する
take on：立ち向かっていく
disposal：連邦政府が自由にできる
abuses：乱用
In the process of being confirmed as Mr Trump’s commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross somewhat reassuringly said that he had learned the lessons of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which raised thousands of tariffs in the 1930s. (It “didn’t work very well, and it very likely wouldn’t work now”.) His own policy includes a threat to “punish” countries not playing by the rules. He suggested his department might start its own actions against foreign dumping, rather than leaving them to industry. Robert Lighthizer, Mr Trump’s proposed US trade representative (USTR) and a veteran trade lawyer, knows WTO law inside out, and will be keen to scrap in the courts.
reassuringly ：元気付ける・安心させる
by the rules：ルールに従って行動する
leaving：ダンピングをそのままにしておく
USTR：アメリカ通商代表部
scrap in the courts：裁判において戦う
A litigious approach to the Chinese would not mark a huge break from the past. Under Barack Obama the USTR challenged China 16 times, on issues from illegal taxes on American steel and cars to dumping and export quotas on rare earths that harmed American importers. Just this week a massive case accusing China of illegal agricultural subsidies, which was filed by the previous administration, kicked off.
litigious：訴訟好きな
mark a huge break：大きな決別をする
massive case：非常に重い訴訟
Ramping up tensions still risks Chinese retaliation. When America imposed tariffs on surging imports of Chinese tyres in 2009, China started importing chicken’s feet from Argentina and Brazil instead of America. Possible targets for Chinese reprisals this time include American soyabeans and aircraft, which together make up a quarter of American exports to China. China would find it hard to replace its entire supply of American soyabeans. But Kenny Cain, a soyabean farmer from Indiana, worries that prices could plunge by a third if China were to shop elsewhere. Although China cannot yet make high-quality commercial airliners, it could divert purchases to Airbus, a European manufacturer.
reprisals：報復
divert：変える
A second risk is that the WTO architecture crumbles under the pressure of new cases. Resources are already stretched and decisions delayed. Constrained by a budget cap and a limit of 640 employees, it has struggled to cope with an increased number of disputes in the past few years.
architecture：構造
crumbles：弱体化する
stretched：逼迫している
A highly adversarial approach to trade could expose a more fundamental problem: “As written, the WTO rules are just not clear enough,” says Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Mr Trump is right that China has not always adhered to the spirit of global trade law. But he may find that even holding it to the letter of the law is easier said than done. For example, WTO law offers no watertight definition of a state-owned enterprise, so it is hard to identify and oppose subsidies from state-owned banks.
adversarial：当事者による
adhered：固守する
holding：守らせる
letter of the law：法律の条文
watertight ：つけいる隙のない
Mr Obama’s strategy for solving the problem was to craft a multilateral trade agreement that included definitions of state-owned enterprises, a section on currency manipulation and chapters on labour and environmental standards, all meant to protect American workers against “unfair” competition. Called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, it initially excluded China. But the hope was that China would one day have to accede, thereby accepting rules written in large measure by America. Mr Trump scrapped it this week.
accede：加盟する
His strategy is clearly different. As long as he fights China on WTO rules, the world should avoid a trade war. Even if the WTO finds that American trade measures violate their rules, those rules set limits on the extent of retaliation allowed. Outside the WTO, all bets are off.
トランプがアメリカの労働者を守るために、行動を起こしているが、まだ具体的に中国を責めていない。彼は選挙中に中国の為替操作に対する非難と４５％を中国からの輸入品にかけると言っていた。そんなことをしてしまうとサプライチェーンが切れてしまう。また中国の輸出品に対して課税してしまうと報復されてしなうかもしれない。そうなると大豆とか航空機をアメリカが輸出できなくなる。これは大ごとだ。確かにWTOは弱体化しているが、それを外してしまうとこうした報復に対してアメリカは個別に争うしか手立てがなくなってしまう。中国に対してのこうした行動は慎重に扱うべきだろう。
トランプの今までの中国に対しての考えは未熟としか言いようがない。何も知らずに、言ってきた節がある。Mnuchinが財務長官になったので、USTRとまともな交渉をしていくだろう。そうでなければ、ここに書いてあるような稚拙な外交を行ってしまう。アメリカは今まで通り、中国とはその貿易において最大限の取引相手である。それを非難することは考えられない。外交、軍事はまた別の問題だ。
日曜日。今日は本書きと研修資料の作成だ。ではまた明日。
Trade tensions will mount, but a destructive trade war can still be averted
Jan 28th 2017
アメリカ。中国 そして 貿易戦争の危険
貿易の緊張が増すだろう。しかし壊滅的な貿易戦争は依然として回避することはできる。
DONALD TRUMP’S quest to protect American workers from cheating foreigners has begun. But in his first flurry of policy tweets and executive orders, China, his favourite bogeyman, was conspicuously absent. On the campaign trail he deplored China’s currency manipulation, accused it of flouting global trade rules and threatened a 45% tariff on its exports, all to cheering crowds. Now, the world is waiting to see how much of this he meant.
quest：探求・追求
cheating：騙し取る
flurry：一陣の疾風
favourite：お気に入りの
bogeyman：おばけ・恐れられて嫌がる人
conspicuously：目だって
deplored：強く非難する
flouting：無視する
The promise to label China a currency manipulator has not been repeated. An optimistic interpretation is that Mr Trump has realised that the promise was based on an “alternative” fact. China is no longer squashing its currency to gain a competitive edge, but is instead propping it up. A pessimistic one is that Steven Mnuchin, his treasury secretary, who would do the labelling, is not yet confirmed by the Senate.
squashing：を止める
propping：テコ入れをする
labelling：レッテルを張る
Steven Mnuchin：2017年2月13日、上院で財務長官への就任が正式に承認された。
Mr Trump certainly has the power to wreak trade havoc. A big blanket tariff would slice through supply chains, hurt American consumers and fly in the face of the global system of trade rules overseen by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). But, rather than blow up the world’s trading system, Mr Trump may yet decide to take on China within it. The White House website, without naming China, promises “to use every tool at the federal government’s disposal” to end trade abuses.
havoc：貿易に大混乱をもたらす
slice：簡単にさっと切る
fly in the face of：を無視して行動する
overseen：監視する
take on：立ち向かっていく
disposal：連邦政府が自由にできる
abuses：乱用
In the process of being confirmed as Mr Trump’s commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross somewhat reassuringly said that he had learned the lessons of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which raised thousands of tariffs in the 1930s. (It “didn’t work very well, and it very likely wouldn’t work now”.) His own policy includes a threat to “punish” countries not playing by the rules. He suggested his department might start its own actions against foreign dumping, rather than leaving them to industry. Robert Lighthizer, Mr Trump’s proposed US trade representative (USTR) and a veteran trade lawyer, knows WTO law inside out, and will be keen to scrap in the courts.
reassuringly ：元気付ける・安心させる
by the rules：ルールに従って行動する
leaving：ダンピングをそのままにしておく
USTR：アメリカ通商代表部
scrap in the courts：裁判において戦う
A litigious approach to the Chinese would not mark a huge break from the past. Under Barack Obama the USTR challenged China 16 times, on issues from illegal taxes on American steel and cars to dumping and export quotas on rare earths that harmed American importers. Just this week a massive case accusing China of illegal agricultural subsidies, which was filed by the previous administration, kicked off.
litigious：訴訟好きな
mark a huge break：大きな決別をする
massive case：非常に重い訴訟
Ramping up tensions still risks Chinese retaliation. When America imposed tariffs on surging imports of Chinese tyres in 2009, China started importing chicken’s feet from Argentina and Brazil instead of America. Possible targets for Chinese reprisals this time include American soyabeans and aircraft, which together make up a quarter of American exports to China. China would find it hard to replace its entire supply of American soyabeans. But Kenny Cain, a soyabean farmer from Indiana, worries that prices could plunge by a third if China were to shop elsewhere. Although China cannot yet make high-quality commercial airliners, it could divert purchases to Airbus, a European manufacturer.
reprisals：報復
divert：変える
A second risk is that the WTO architecture crumbles under the pressure of new cases. Resources are already stretched and decisions delayed. Constrained by a budget cap and a limit of 640 employees, it has struggled to cope with an increased number of disputes in the past few years.
architecture：構造
crumbles：弱体化する
stretched：逼迫している
A highly adversarial approach to trade could expose a more fundamental problem: “As written, the WTO rules are just not clear enough,” says Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Mr Trump is right that China has not always adhered to the spirit of global trade law. But he may find that even holding it to the letter of the law is easier said than done. For example, WTO law offers no watertight definition of a state-owned enterprise, so it is hard to identify and oppose subsidies from state-owned banks.
adversarial：当事者による
adhered：固守する
holding：守らせる
letter of the law：法律の条文
watertight ：つけいる隙のない
Mr Obama’s strategy for solving the problem was to craft a multilateral trade agreement that included definitions of state-owned enterprises, a section on currency manipulation and chapters on labour and environmental standards, all meant to protect American workers against “unfair” competition. Called the Trans-Pacific Partnership, it initially excluded China. But the hope was that China would one day have to accede, thereby accepting rules written in large measure by America. Mr Trump scrapped it this week.
accede：加盟する
His strategy is clearly different. As long as he fights China on WTO rules, the world should avoid a trade war. Even if the WTO finds that American trade measures violate their rules, those rules set limits on the extent of retaliation allowed. Outside the WTO, all bets are off.
トランプがアメリカの労働者を守るために、行動を起こしているが、まだ具体的に中国を責めていない。彼は選挙中に中国の為替操作に対する非難と４５％を中国からの輸入品にかけると言っていた。そんなことをしてしまうとサプライチェーンが切れてしまう。また中国の輸出品に対して課税してしまうと報復されてしなうかもしれない。そうなると大豆とか航空機をアメリカが輸出できなくなる。これは大ごとだ。確かにWTOは弱体化しているが、それを外してしまうとこうした報復に対してアメリカは個別に争うしか手立てがなくなってしまう。中国に対してのこうした行動は慎重に扱うべきだろう。
トランプの今までの中国に対しての考えは未熟としか言いようがない。何も知らずに、言ってきた節がある。Mnuchinが財務長官になったので、USTRとまともな交渉をしていくだろう。そうでなければ、ここに書いてあるような稚拙な外交を行ってしまう。アメリカは今まで通り、中国とはその貿易において最大限の取引相手である。それを非難することは考えられない。外交、軍事はまた別の問題だ。
日曜日。今日は本書きと研修資料の作成だ。ではまた明日。
