2017年02月27日

Donald Trumpは中国の熱烈な願いを承諾する その「一つの中国政策」が戻る。誰か当惑したか?

Donald Trump grants China’s fervent wish
The “one-China” policy is back. Who blinked?
Feb 13th 2017 | China

Donald Trumpは中国の熱烈な願いを承諾する
その「一つの中国政策」が戻る。誰か当惑したか?



MODERATION and careful planning have not exactly been watchwords for the Trump administration so far. But the relationship between China and America seems important enough that, in dealing with it, America’s president has decided (for now) to eschew his usual penchant for shock, awe and improvisation. 

MODERATION:節度
watchwords:標語
eschew:悪いものを意識して避ける
penchant:強くて習慣的な嗜好
awe:畏怖
improvisation:即興で行うこと

During an “extremely cordial” phone call with Xi Jinping, his opposite number, on February 9th, Donald Trump agreed to honour his country’s long-standing “one-China policy”, according to the White House. It said Mr Trump made this commitment “at the request of President Xi”. China regards the policy—which it interprets as confirming its sovereign claim to Taiwan—as the basis for its relationship with the United States. Mr Xi had refused to talk to Mr Trump until the American president committed himself to it. 

cordial:友好的な
honour:敬意を表する・遵守する

Mr Trump’s decision to reassert what has been his country’s policy for almost 40 years (though the wording of it does not explicitly accept China’s sovereignty over Taiwan) was the culmination of a week of old-fashioned diplomacy far removed from government-by-tweet. On February 3rd Michael Flynn, Mr Trump’s national security adviser, telephoned China’s highest-ranking foreign-policy official, Yang Jiechi, to lay the groundwork for the two presidents’ call. The same day, James Mattis, America’s defence secretary, who was visiting Japan, said at a news conference that “at this time, we do not see any need for dramatic military moves at all.” China Daily, a state-owned newspaper, decided this remark “dispersed the clouds of war”—though the qualification “at this time” will hardly have gone unnoticed in Beijing. 

reassert:再び断言する
culmination:最高点
by tweet:ツイッターによる書き込み
groundwork:根回しをする
dispersed:雲を消散する
qualification:条件・留保
unnoticed:気付かれないままに

Back in Washington, news leaked out that Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state, had moderated a threat he had made earlier against China’s claims in the South China Sea. At his Senate confirmation hearings, Mr Tillerson had said (in what seemed like a throwaway remark) that China’s “access” to islands it had built in that sea was “not going to be allowed”. This was widely interpreted as a warning that America would blockade them. But Mr Tillerson’s written answers on the subject were more nuanced, talking only of America being capable of denying access “if a contingency occurs”—a rather different sort of threat. 

throwaway:さりげない
blockade:封鎖する
nuanced:微妙な違いを与える

On China policy, therefore, Mr Trump appears to be listening to realists in his administration, not to bomb-throwers such as Peter Navarro, the head of the National Trade Council and the author of a book called “Death by China”. To the extent that his reassurance to Mr Xi reduced tension in the world’s most important bilateral relationship, the phone call reflected a certain caution in American foreign policy which augurs better for Asian security. 

realists:現実主義者 TillersonとかJames Mattis 

But China is likely to see it as a victory in a zero-sum game. Mr Trump’s support for the idea of “one China” reverses the view he took on December 11th when he told Fox News, “I don’t know why we have to be bound by a one-China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things.” It is possible, of course, that Mr Xi has made concessions to Mr Trump that have not been made public (on, say, trade or North Korea). But in the absence of those, it looks as if Mr Trump got nothing in return for taking the one-China policy off the table. He blinked first. 

bound:束縛される
public:公表する
blinked:目を瞬きをして抑える

To China’s government, this is likely to confirm that its preferred method of diplomacy works: that of issuing non-negotiable demands and repeating them until other countries come around. China is also likely to see Mr Trump’s about-turn as a sign of American weakness, rather than a resolution of policy uncertainty within his administration. The term “paper tiger”, once used by Mao to describe America, has made a striking comeback in Chinese descriptions of Mr Trump. Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University and an adviser to the government, told the New York Times that Mr Trump would be regarded as one, having “lost his first fight” with China’s leader. 

preferred:好ましい 
about-turn:180度の転換
resolution:解決策・決意
striking :顕著な

In contrast to America’ president, Mr Xi seems to bestride the world like a colossus. He was fawned on by politicians and businesspeople at the World Economic Forum in Davos last month. Last year he shrugged off a ruling against China by an international tribunal over claims in the South China Sea and persuaded the presidents of the Philippines and Malaysia to cosy up to his country. Mr Xi has a strong incentive to appear firm in his dealings with foreigners: in the run-up to a leadership reshuffle due by the end of this year, he cannot afford to show any flexibility that opponents might construe as weakness. 

bestride:に君臨する
colossus:巨人
fawned:媚びる
shrugged :無視する
ruling:判決
cosy:機嫌をとる・とり入る
dealings:取引
run-up:目前に控えて
reshuffle:内閣改造
construe:であると解釈する

But even though Mr Trump has changed his stance towards the one-China policy, this does not necessarily mean he will capitulate to China on other matters, nor that he and Mr Xi will be able to work together constructively. Almost immediately after the call between the two presidents, Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, got a red-carpet welcome in America, suggesting that Mr Trump sees his country’s alliance with Japan as a sort of counterweight to China. North Korea chose the same moment to carry out its first ballistic-missile test of the Trump presidency, reminding both China and America that the one-China policy is not the only issue confronting them. 

capitulate:抵抗を止める
counterweight:対抗勢力

The list of security-related disagreements between the two countries is long. They relate to everything from America’s deployment of a missile shield in South Korea, known as THAAD, to Japan’s claim to the Senkaku islands (which the Chinese call the Diaoyu) and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. Nor is there any sign yet that Mr Trump is preparing to back away from a fight with China over trade, tariffs, market access and the like. His reassuring phone call to Mr Xi is more likely to mark a respite from tensions between America and China than an end to them. 

shield:盾
back away:手を引く
respite:小休止

トランプが習近平に対して一つの中国を認めたが、まだまだ、二国間の課題がたくさんある。トランプがこのように中国に対して譲歩したことによって、習近平は意を強くしているだろう。彼は今年、チャイナセプンの入れ替えがあるので、彼はこうした外交政策では譲歩できない。南シナ海の中国の軍事施設に対しても、トランプが選挙の時に言っていたように、排除することはしないと言っている。TillersonとかJames Mattisのような現実主義者を採用したことによって、Trumpはまともな外交政策をとるようになってきた。

Trumpだけであれば無茶苦茶な外交政策を継続したのかもしれないが、彼がまともな人たちを採用してきたので、そうした政策がまともになってきた。中国政府もそうしたことはよくわかっているだろう。中国の報道とか色々噂をするが、Trumpが弱腰になったわけではない。彼が周りの意見を聞いて行動しているだけだ。今ままで山積してる米中の外交課題はそのまままともな形で継続してくだろう。そう見てくると、もしかしたら、TPPも復活するかもしれない。

火曜日。今日は本書きの大詰めと研修資料の作成。本の方はだんだん形になってきた。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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