2017年03月05日

強い高揚感が市場に戻ってきた。 グローバルな景気の回復の兆し、そしてアメリカの減税への期待が株式市場を新たな高値に押し上げている。

Euphoria returns to markets
Signs of global recovery, and hopes of tax cuts in America, are pushing stockmarkets to new highs 
Buttonwood's notebook
Feb 17th 2017
by Buttonwood

強い高揚感が市場に戻ってきた。
グローバルな景気の回復の兆し、そしてアメリカの減税への期待が株式市場を新たな高値に押し上げている。



LIKE the weather in Chicago, you don’t have to wait long for a new trend in the stockmarkets. Just a few weeks ago, investors seemed to have second thoughts about their Trump-related euphoria (which itself was a contrast to the widespread nervousness ahead of the election). Now they have been recording new highs again.

second thought:慎重に考えること

While the spark for the rally seems to have been a presidential comment about forthcoming tax cuts, the causes have been much broader; the MSCI World Index has also hit new highs. Commodity prices have perked up, which may be a sign that the Chinese economy is holding up (if you recall, a Chinese slowdown was the big worry 12 months ago). Asian trade has perked up after a long period of sluggishness (the exports of South Korea, a bellwether in this respect, have risen for three months in a row). According to SocGen the global purchasing managers index for manufacturing was close to 50 (unchanged output) at the start of 2016; now it is above 53. The IMF is predicting global growth of 3.4% this year, up from 3.1% in 2016. Inflation has surprised on the upside—a consequence of commodity price rises, perhaps, but a relief for those worrying about deflation. 

spark:引き金
rally:株価の持ち直し・反発
MSCI:Morgan Stanley Capital International, Inc. モルガン・スタンレー・キャピタル・インターナショナル
perked:活気づく
holding:持ちこたえる
bellwether:先駆け・先導者
respect:この点に関して
surprised:おどろかす
upside:良い面で

Analysts look confident about their expectations for profits growth this year; at the global level, they are forecasting 12.6%, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. But they made similar predictions for 2015 and 2016, when profits fell 0.7% and rose 2.4% respectively. American companies do seem particularly confident; more than 50% of earnings calls used the world “optimistic” according to BAML, the highest since 2003. Corporate tax cuts will, of course, boost earnings per share, and there are hopes of deregulation too. 

earnings calls:〔テレビ会議によって行われる投資家向けの〕収支報告、業績発表



All this may sit rather oddly with the general air of political turmoil that has set in since June and the Brexit vote. Of course, while Mr Trump’s bizarre news conferences and tweets entertain and appal the media, some developments are just “noise”—why should a pension fund care about the status of the national security adviser or labour secretary? But the election of Marine Le Pen as French president would be a real threat, given her proposal to redenominate French debt into francs, and investors seem to be taking it more seriously as the FT reports today. 

oddly:おかしなことに
bizarre:突飛な
appal:ぎょっとさせる
redenominate:通貨の呼称単位を変更する・デノミを実施する

The risks are high that investors might be disappointed. It is not clear that America’s fiscal stimulus will be as large as investors hope (especially on the infrastructure side) given Congressional doubts. The Fed seems set to tighten policy—a sign that the American economy has recovered, yes, but a big test for a market that has been coddled by near-zero rates since 2009. The talk of trade wars has not gone away, as Willem Buiter of Citigroup writes: 

coddled:必要以上に大事に扱う

The risk of a significant increase in protectionism, up to and including “trade wars”, is material and rising, and that its potential consequences on growth and financial markets could be large. 

And valuations remain high, by historical standards. The cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio of the American market (which averages profits over 10 years) is 28.7, compared with a historic average of 16.7. That is not a great short-term market indicator but still it emphasised that optimism about profits is high at a time when profits have only just come off a post-war peak as a proportion of GDP. So this latest trend may be as short-lived as the previous ones; President Trump should be careful about claiming credit for the stockmarket. You never know what will happen next. 

come off:外れる 

アメリカの景気が戻ってきているように見えるが、まだ安心はできない。この高揚感はトランプの減税政策にある。資源の価格も戻している。企業の収益予想も手堅い。BrexitとかフランスのMarine Le Penの戦況の動向も不安要素として存在する。アメリカの金融刺激策が投資家の目にかなうものかどうかはわからない。Fedが金利を上げて政策を引き締めるようだ。今の景気の高揚感は短命かもしれないので、政府は慎重に対応しなければならない。

確かに、トランプの減税、インフラ投資、工場の米国回帰はまだ緒に就いたばかりだ。今後のなり行き次第ではどうなるかわからない。EU政治、経済の不安定もある。中国は年末のチャイナセブンの入れ替えがあるので、慎重に運営するだろう。方向としてはいい方向に動いてはいるが、安心はできない。

月曜日。朝会がある。昼はいつも仲間いつも仲間との会食で、今日は八丁堀の一汁三菜イタリアンだ。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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