2017年04月14日

フィリピンで、「懲罰する人」が負けている。(2)

Befriending a Regional Rival
Though Duterte's ruthless counternarcotics campaign continues to earn him points with the public, his foreign policy tactics have begun to backfire. On March 8, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana revealed that Chinese survey vessels repeatedly engaged in unauthorized activities near the Benham Rise last year. Located just east of Luzon — beyond the territories traditionally disputed between China and the Philippines — the area is believed to be rich in mineral and natural gas deposits. And though a U.N. commission confirmed that Benham Rise is part of the Philippines' extended continental shelf in 2012, effectively giving Manila exclusive rights to exploit hydrocarbon and mineral resources on the underwater plateau, the revelation has raised concerns that Beijing may not honor the ruling much longer. 

counternarcotics:麻薬対策
backfire:裏目にでる
unauthorized:許可されていない
revelation:暴露
honor:履行する

Duterte's subsequent claim that Manila had permitted the vessels' research — a direct contradiction of the statements made by his defense and foreign affairs officials — only increased the public's misgivings. To make matters worse, a local Chinese official then suggested that Beijing plans to build a monitoring station on the Scarborough Shoal, the submerged rock that once lay at the heart of Manila's maritime dispute with its northwestern neighbor. (Ironically, the flashpoint shoal had become a symbol of the Sino-Philippine reconciliation in recent months as the two countries agreed to joint fishing and patrol mechanisms in the waters around it.) Though the Chinese Foreign Ministry denied the validity of the remark a few days later, it did little to ease the anxiety spreading throughout the Philippines. 

misgivings:疑念
submerged:水面下に隠れた
flashpoint:一触即発の場所



subsea:海中の
innocent passage:無害通航

In some ways, China's interest in stepping up its underwater surveying in the Pacific Ocean is not a surprise. Nor is its longer-term goal of someday building up its infrastructure at the Scarborough Shoal. As Beijing works to tighten its grip on the South China Sea, expanding its presence in the waters beyond would be the next logical step. After all, a navy more capable of operating far from home requires familiarity with the deep-sea environment, particularly for surface and undersea operations. 

Nevertheless, China's moves around the Scarborough Shoal could greatly undermine the joint mechanisms it has in place with the Philippines, as well as Manila's broader reorientation toward Beijing. Though its research missions near the Benham Rise do not necessarily violate the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, they did revive Philippine fears surrounding the country's unresolved maritime disputes with China — and frustration with Duterte's stance toward them, which many Philippine citizens believe is too weak. 

reorientation:再配向・再配列・もう一度見直すこと
missions:任務

Neither China nor Duterte appears willing to jeopardize the momentum behind their warming of ties. Both have repeatedly tried to downplay the recent string of controversies while working to boost their economic and defense relationships. And from China's perspective, Manila's reorientation has brought several strategic advantages in its pursuit of an evolving South China Sea policy and other regional imperatives. But despite Beijing's best efforts to remedy the situation — and Duterte's subsequent decision to bolster the Philippines' naval presence around the Benham Rise — they have not been enough to quell the backlash against the president's erratic rhetoric or dispel his image as a leader soft on China. Having shown no intention of backing down from his rebalancing act, Duterte will likely only encounter more obstacles ahead as rising nationalism, a persistent risk of maritime skirmishes, and constitutional restrictions stand in the way of closer relations with Beijing. 

jeopardize:危険にさらす
downplay:を過小評価する
controversies:論争
imperatives:緊急になすべきこと・責務
remedy:改善する
quell:を抑える
backlash:反感
erratic:気まぐれな
dispel:払いのける
backing:取り下げる
encounter:直面する
constitutional restriction:本質的な制限 中国とうまくやっていこうという意味

A High-Stakes Gamble
At first Duterte's unorthodox approach to diplomacy seemed to have paid off, particularly as the rise of a new administration in the White House called into question Washington's Asia-Pacific policy. The Philippine president's newfound friendship with China has already yielded a multibillion-dollar economic deal that includes much-needed infrastructure investment, aid and trade pacts. At the same time, he has boosted the Philippines' economic and defense ties with Japan and Russia, all while maintaining the protection and power that an alliance with the United States provides. But as the latest incidents have shown, Duterte's success is by no means certain to last forever. 

paid:うまくいく
called into question:疑問視する
yielded:をもたらす
boosted :を高める

Striking a delicate balance between great powers such as the United States and China requires room to maneuver and a high tolerance for risk. After all, the economic benefits of deals reached with Beijing will take years to materialize, and there is no guarantee that they will fulfill Duterte's promise to deliver sustained and equitable growth to the Philippine economy. Unlike in his more popular drug war, moreover, Duterte will not be able to count on the public's backing to shield his foreign policy initiatives from military, legislative or judicial scrutiny — particularly if he is perceived to be trading Philippine sovereignty for Chinese trains and trade. Already wary of Duterte's determination to cooperate with China, the Philippine defense establishment and population have grown all the more suspicious of Beijing's incursions into previously untouched waters. 

room:余地
maneuver:政策の変更の余地
tolerance ;抵抗力
equitable:公正な
shield:守る
scrutiny:監視
perceived:であると気づく
sovereignty:主権
trains:一連の流れ
incursions:侵略
defense establishment:軍事組織

Duterteの中国との経済を意識した協調は昨今の中国軍の動きによって軍部の組織と国民の間から疑念の声が上がってきている。麻薬撲滅の評価は高いのだが、今回の中国軍のスカボロショールに対しての噂とか中国軍のBenham Riseへの侵略が国民を不安にしている。Duterteの中国に対する態度が生ぬるいと感じている。彼は自国の経済への中国からの投資を意識しているだが、一方で、中国の領土に対するフィリピンの懸念がある。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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