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グローバル人材育成の道｜海野惠一（元アクセンチュア代表）2017年04月22日
BrexitはEUにとって最善かもしれない。 ロンドンの中心で、ヨーロッパ統合デモ行進の最中に、EUとイギリスの旗が国会議事堂にはためいている。
Brexit could be the best thing that happened to the European Union
EU and Union flags fly above Parliament Square during a Unite for Europe march, in central London, Britain March 25, 2017. FT
BrexitはEUにとって最善かもしれない。
ロンドンの中心で、ヨーロッパ統合デモ行進の最中に、EUとイギリスの旗が国会議事堂にはためいている。
In June 2016, the British public voted to do the unthinkable: leave the European Union. For a while there was some uncertainty. After all, this was unprecedented, so it was anyone’s guess which way things would go. Almost a year later, the situation is starting to get a little clearer.
The financial impact of Brexit
After an eight-year recovery built on rising asset prices and debt but stagnant wages, the poor and the old will see their incomes and savings dwindle. The canary in the coal mine is the pound sterling, which already dropped from over 1.50 to 1.25 against the US dollar. For an island that imports half its goods and food, this means higher inflation. High street retailers are already feeling the pinch: expect even smaller portions and less fruit and vegetables on the shelves.
stagnant ：賃金水準の停滞
dwindle ：だんだん減少する
canary：カナリア
High street retailers：High Street というのは、どこの町にもほとんど必ずある、両側に商店が連なる通り（一番にぎやかな通り）のことです。そこに出店している小売業者であるhight street retailerは、（大手の）チェーン店のことを指すものと思われます
pinch：困難な状況
Brexit uncertainty could also scare off some investment and push jobs away. In fact, some firms are already relocating elsewhere. This means Britain’s ultimate store of wealth and property could turn into a trap. With a fall in investment and demand from foreigners and interest rates already at rock bottom, London’s market has already cooled off.
scare：遠のかせる
at rock bottom：どん底
cooled：冷める
There is little the government will be able to do this time around: schemes like Help-to-Buy, which helps people become home-owners, will have to give in to the reality of a 5% budget deficit and the need for lower spending. Higher taxes may be on the way too. While the last budget from Number 10 ignored Brexit, some local councils are already feeling the pinch and threatening to raise taxes.
give in：屈服する
What do all these developments mean for the bottom line? According to our calculations, based on direct costs such as job losses from the finance sector, as well as inflation eroding incomes and savings, Brexit will cost Britain £140 billion (7.5% of GDP) or the equivalent of £300 million a week over eight years,
leniency：寛大さ
It’s about more than the economy
But for a country deeply divided by economic and social rifts, leaving Europe was never about the economy. It was about finding unity. Polarizing public opinion against the EU and immigration and away from domestic issues was an easy political win.
rifts：亀裂
finding：気づく・と思う
Polarizing：二極化させる
Yet Brexit will not fix the shortfalls of the Anglo-American growth engine, which ran on credit and rising asset prices over the past few decades, disregarding rising inequality, a lack of inclusive access to education and declining social mobility.
shortfalls：不足額
disregarding：無視する
inclusive：排他的でない
social mobility：社会的流動性・社会的地位
Britain’s richest and privately educated citizens account for 7% of the population yet makes up two-thirds of judges and around half of journalists and members of parliament, according to a government report. Meanwhile, the Child Poverty Action Group estimates that 3.9 million children live in poverty. The UK ranks second in the developed world for inequality, after the US.
Brexit will not change that, nor will it make Britain more united: the English patient was sick long before the divorce from Europe. With an economy focused on finance and services, and highly dependent on foreign investment, the idea of creating a “truly global Britain” isolated from its closest trading partner is economic la-la land.
united：団結した
patient：患者
la-la land：現実離れした世界
Brexitはイギリスを貧しくしていく。ポンドも下落している。インフレも進行しているだんだん物価が高くなっていく。子どもの貧困率は先進国でアメリカについで２位だ。EU離脱と国内問題を分離したが、大間違いだ。離脱によって、国内の経済はがたがたになっていくだろう。８年にわたって、GDPの7.5%が下落していくというという統計もある。
彼の言っていることがもっともなように思う。外国からの投資は間違いなく減少するだろうし、その分、雇用も減少するだろう。Cityの地位も凋落していくだろう。移民の問題と比較できないほどの影響がある。確かに理解できない。
土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。
EU and Union flags fly above Parliament Square during a Unite for Europe march, in central London, Britain March 25, 2017. FT
BrexitはEUにとって最善かもしれない。
ロンドンの中心で、ヨーロッパ統合デモ行進の最中に、EUとイギリスの旗が国会議事堂にはためいている。
In June 2016, the British public voted to do the unthinkable: leave the European Union. For a while there was some uncertainty. After all, this was unprecedented, so it was anyone’s guess which way things would go. Almost a year later, the situation is starting to get a little clearer.
The financial impact of Brexit
After an eight-year recovery built on rising asset prices and debt but stagnant wages, the poor and the old will see their incomes and savings dwindle. The canary in the coal mine is the pound sterling, which already dropped from over 1.50 to 1.25 against the US dollar. For an island that imports half its goods and food, this means higher inflation. High street retailers are already feeling the pinch: expect even smaller portions and less fruit and vegetables on the shelves.
stagnant ：賃金水準の停滞
dwindle ：だんだん減少する
canary：カナリア
High street retailers：High Street というのは、どこの町にもほとんど必ずある、両側に商店が連なる通り（一番にぎやかな通り）のことです。そこに出店している小売業者であるhight street retailerは、（大手の）チェーン店のことを指すものと思われます
pinch：困難な状況
Brexit uncertainty could also scare off some investment and push jobs away. In fact, some firms are already relocating elsewhere. This means Britain’s ultimate store of wealth and property could turn into a trap. With a fall in investment and demand from foreigners and interest rates already at rock bottom, London’s market has already cooled off.
scare：遠のかせる
at rock bottom：どん底
cooled：冷める
There is little the government will be able to do this time around: schemes like Help-to-Buy, which helps people become home-owners, will have to give in to the reality of a 5% budget deficit and the need for lower spending. Higher taxes may be on the way too. While the last budget from Number 10 ignored Brexit, some local councils are already feeling the pinch and threatening to raise taxes.
give in：屈服する
What do all these developments mean for the bottom line? According to our calculations, based on direct costs such as job losses from the finance sector, as well as inflation eroding incomes and savings, Brexit will cost Britain £140 billion (7.5% of GDP) or the equivalent of £300 million a week over eight years,
leniency：寛大さ
It’s about more than the economy
But for a country deeply divided by economic and social rifts, leaving Europe was never about the economy. It was about finding unity. Polarizing public opinion against the EU and immigration and away from domestic issues was an easy political win.
rifts：亀裂
finding：気づく・と思う
Polarizing：二極化させる
Yet Brexit will not fix the shortfalls of the Anglo-American growth engine, which ran on credit and rising asset prices over the past few decades, disregarding rising inequality, a lack of inclusive access to education and declining social mobility.
shortfalls：不足額
disregarding：無視する
inclusive：排他的でない
social mobility：社会的流動性・社会的地位
Britain’s richest and privately educated citizens account for 7% of the population yet makes up two-thirds of judges and around half of journalists and members of parliament, according to a government report. Meanwhile, the Child Poverty Action Group estimates that 3.9 million children live in poverty. The UK ranks second in the developed world for inequality, after the US.
Brexit will not change that, nor will it make Britain more united: the English patient was sick long before the divorce from Europe. With an economy focused on finance and services, and highly dependent on foreign investment, the idea of creating a “truly global Britain” isolated from its closest trading partner is economic la-la land.
united：団結した
patient：患者
la-la land：現実離れした世界
Brexitはイギリスを貧しくしていく。ポンドも下落している。インフレも進行しているだんだん物価が高くなっていく。子どもの貧困率は先進国でアメリカについで２位だ。EU離脱と国内問題を分離したが、大間違いだ。離脱によって、国内の経済はがたがたになっていくだろう。８年にわたって、GDPの7.5%が下落していくというという統計もある。
彼の言っていることがもっともなように思う。外国からの投資は間違いなく減少するだろうし、その分、雇用も減少するだろう。Cityの地位も凋落していくだろう。移民の問題と比較できないほどの影響がある。確かに理解できない。
土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。
