2017年04月29日

イギリスにさようなら 我が元Bagehotのコラムニストがイギリスの過去現在、将来について熟考する(3)

It is hard to tell precisely when and whether this cycle of belligerence will be broken. Mrs May’s Article 50 letter was more conciliatory than many had feared. Perhaps this heralds a pivot: having talked up her Europhobe credentials ever since she replaced David Cameron, could the new prime minister be turning towards the continent? Might she be about to march her troops back down the hill? Probably not. The post-imperial pride and insecurity that motivated the Brexit vote is not hers to deploy or withdraw at will. She has merely ridden it to clinch the fleeting favours of the tabloids and some of her own MPs. 

belligerence:攻撃的な行動
conciliatory:懐柔的な
heralds:前触れになる
pivot:方向転換
Europhobe:EU嫌いの人
credentials:実績
insecurity:不安感
ridden:乗る
fleeting:つかの間の
tabloids:大衆向け新聞

Two main scenarios mark the realistic limits of Britain’s prospects. The first, best one is that Britain reaches a position distinctly worse than membership, but not disastrously so. It ends up as a loyal rule-taker, paying into EU programmes and budgets, shadowing EU regulations and granting plentiful work permits to EU nationals. Some businesses leave but most stay in Britain for its competitive strengths; it remains pragmatically close to the European political, legal and regulatory eco-systems in whose orbit it remains bound by history, culture and geography. Over the following decade the politics changes, a referendum is called and in, say, 2032 Britain opts to become the oldest new member of the EU. Brexit comes to be seen as an historical interlude, not a tangent; a momentary pause for breath as the country consolidates its rapid globalisation to date before proceeding forth. 

distinctly:まぎれもなく
shadowing:に影のようにつきまとう
opts:選択する
interlude:つかの間の出来事
tangent:本筋から離れた
consolidates:強固にする

The other extreme is grim. Not as bad as some Remainers prognosticate (neither societal meltdown nor economic collapse are really on the cards). But still it could get seriously ugly: talks fall apart; Scotland quits the union; the Troubles return to Northern Ireland; the growth of the gap between London, better hedged against Brexit, and the rest of the country accelerates markedly; trade takes a severe hit and unemployment ticks up; public services splutter even more; debt, taxes and prices rise; living standards slide; the civic fabric ages and frays. Old and new populist forces thrive. The country declines not with a bang but with a whimper: the Italy-fication of Britain. 

prognosticate:予言する
societal:社会的な
hedged:に対する損失を防ぐ策を取る
markedly:著しく
hit:直撃
splutter:咳き込む
slide:下落する
fabric:基本構造
frays:擦り切れる
bang:威勢よく
whimper:期待ハズレで印象が薄い

What, then, will happen? Having started this farewell post with some predictions, I will end it with some. I think the country will get a deal, but a poor one. Contrary to what some in Britain reckon, most other EU members want not to punish it as such, but to ensure membership of the club does not become the second-worst option on offer. “Access” to the single market and “equivalence” with its protocols will turn out to mean much less than membership; if the country avoids an economic shock it will be thanks only to strong global growth. There will be cheering stories of firms and sectors creatively reorganising themselves to deal with new realities—albeit typically in places like London that did not vote for Brexit in the first place. 

equivalence:同等のもの

Most of all, I predict disappointment. The sort of absolute sovereignty marketed by Brexiteers last June does not exist in the modern world: the more interconnected we are, the worse the exchange rate of institutional autonomy for real power becomes. For example, it is very unlikely any realistic reduction in immigration will be felt or appreciated, unlike its economic downside. Leaving the world’s biggest internal market will not make life in Sunderland, Stoke or Blackpool, or any other working-class Brexit stronghold, any nicer. Higher prices will not feel like “taking control” to most. A government strained by the biggest logistical task since world war two will have much less capacity and capital with which to attend to bread-and-butter imperatives. 

absolute sovereignty:絶対的な国家主権
attend:の面倒を見る
imperatives:急務

Britain today has no opposition capable of forcing it to do so (the case for some new centrist party or alliance rescuing moderate Labourism remains attention-worthy.) But although David Cameron was wrong to call the referendum—there was no clamour for it outside his party and his own long years of EU-bashing were always going to make his last-minute, born-again Europeanism unconvincing—the wider grievances it exposed are real, if not always accurately directed. You do not have to like Mrs May’s economic and social illiberalism to take it seriously; it is popular, and for reasons liberals must examine closely (I still think moving the capital from London to Manchester and confronting, really confronting, the housing crisis would help). No one who wants the best for Britain should treat their probable persistence under Brexit as a cue for triumphalism. 

unconvincing:説得力のない
grievances:不満
persistence:粘り強さ

If, all things considered, this has been a demoralising period in which to cover British politics it has also been a captivating one. A more cohesive, untroubled, assured, uncomplicated Britain would have been a much less interesting one to travel around and write about. My stint has taken in the first coalition government in decades, a Scottish independence referendum, a nail-biting general election, an EU referendum and the novelistic, at times Shakespearean, drama of its fallout. 

demoralising:弱気にする
captivating:とても魅力的な
cohesive:団結した
assured:保証された
stint:任務
fallout:後遺症

And it has taken in many encouraging stories and trends along the way: Britain’s world-beating universities; its chilled-out knack for integrating newcomers; its temperamental economic openness (Brexit honouring this rule in the breach); its noble role (despite short-sighted and damaging cuts) as a supplier of international security; its relatively creative and dynamic mass media; its often plucky and defiant pro-Europeans; its overwhelmingly decent, public-spirited and uncrooked politicians; its halting progress towards a more modern politics and a post-imperial identity and economy. Thanks for reading this blog these past couple of years—and for the frequently thought-provoking, well-informed comments and reaction below the line and on social media. For those interested, I will henceforth be writing a new The Economist blog on the German-speaking world, to be launched shortly. Until then. 

chilled-out:冷静な
knack:習性
temperamental:気まぐれな
breach:難局に
damaging cut:損害を与える切り傷
plucky:勇気のある
defiant:挑戦的な
decent:立派な
public-spirited:公共心に富む
uncrooked:ゆがんでいない
halting:たどたどしい
provoking:刺激する
well-informed:見識の広い
henceforth:これからは
Until then:じゃあ、また今度

彼は一貫してBrexitを批判していて、うまくいても今までのメンバーショップよりも悪い条件になるだろうし、最悪はスコットランドもアイルランドも離れてしまい、景気は低迷し、失業率が高くなり、ロンドンと地方の格差は拡大していくと言っている。そのうちに、またEUに再加盟するようなことになるかもしれない。Brexitをすることは何もいいことはない。

そのとおりだろう。移民を回避すれば結局、こうして経済の低迷を招くことになる。対応の仕方が、間違えている。EUの体制とかルールを変えていくべきであって、脱退することではない。ギリシャとわけが違う。EUが重厚な組織で、改革するべきだし移民の受け入れとかの内容自体もEUの中で一緒に話をするべきだった。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 06:31コメント(0)トラックバック(0) 

トラックバックURL

コメントする

名前:
URL:
  情報を記憶: 評価:  顔   星
 
 
 
プロフィール

swingby_blog

プロフィール

海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
Swingby 最新イベント情報
海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
講演・メディア出演

最新記事
月別アーカイブ
Recent Comments
記事検索
ご訪問者数
  • 今日:
  • 累計:

   ご訪問ありがとうございます。


社長ブログ ブログランキングへ
メールマガジン登録
最新のセミナー情報を配信します。
登録はこちらのフォームから↓