“There’s a rational pendulum,” says Adam Cathcart, a North Korea expert at Leeds University in the U.K. “They’ve tried to turn the screws on North Korea, and they are likely to swing back to see what they can get out of a more engagement-orientated approach." The one hawkish ally Trump might retain is Japan. Tokyo has spent $10 billion on various missile-defense apparatus since North Korea’s first Taepodong-1 ballistic missile test in 1998. But recent analysis shows that a simultaneous launch of four North Korean missiles could overwhelm Japan’s ballistic-missile-defense system. And that's exactly what Pyongyang fired into Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone in early March. 

rational：筋の通った
pendulum：変化・振り子
engagement：取り決め
retain：保持する
overwhelm：を完全にやっつける

“That really rattled the establishment there,” says Harvard’s Park. “Japan feels the existential threat more than any other country. They are bracing for the possibility of this turning kinetic.” Civilian evacuation drills were held in Japan for the first time last month, and there are growing calls to amend the nation's pacifist constitution to allow for a preemptive strike against North Korea. “Japan can’t just wait until it’s destroyed,” Hiroshi Imazu, the head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s security committee, recently told the Washington Post. 

rattled：を不安にさせる
existential：存在に関する
kinetic：動的な
evacuation drills ：避難訓練

Read More: President Trump Will Warn China That 'the Clock Has Now Run Out' on North Korea Experts say an attack against North Korea could destroy much of its nuclear-enrichment and missile-testing facilities. However, the South Korean capital — just 30 miles from the DMZ, whose environs are home to half of the 50 million national population — would face a devastating retaliation. There are also 28,000 American troops stationed in South Korea and 50,000 in Japan. “North Korea’s heavy artillery and rocketry cannot be destroyed in time to save Seoul from a fire bath,” says Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor at the Australian Defence Force Academy. 

environs：周辺
devastating：破壊的な
retaliation：報復
emeritus：名誉教授

Moreover, following the poisoning of Kim Jong Nam — half-brother of Kim Jong Un — with VX nerve at Kuala Lumpur Airport in February, one cannot rule out biological warfare being used by the North Koreans. Even with Japanese approval, which is still a very slight possibility, these very real risks are why the military option has always been a last resort — and why unilateral action could never be simply that.“There’s literally no such thing as ‘going it alone’ on the Korean peninsular; you cannot do it,” says Cathcart. “It betrays an ignorance of the whole situation.” 

rule：排除する
betrays：捨てる

日本軍の軍備では北朝鮮からのミサイル攻撃を防御出来ない。平和憲法も先制攻撃を禁止している。北朝鮮からの攻撃では韓国の首都は全滅してしまう。北朝鮮は金正男を殺害したように、毒ガス攻撃をしてくる可能性もある。今のままでは極めて危険だ。中国、日本が対応取れないのであればアメリカがやるしかないだろう。

トランプはオバマと違った戦略を取りたいし、成果も出したい。この北朝鮮は格好の標的かもしれない。シリアのケースも有るように、韓国が攻撃されるのを見捨てて、北朝鮮に攻撃を書けるのではないだろうか。今まで歴史的にすべての交渉はすべて失敗してきた。それをトランプはよく知っているはずだ。

月曜日。朝会は中止。ハナビラタケの内藤社長が来られる。ではまた明日。