2017年05月06日

中道派がフランスの大統領選挙を確かに制することができる。フランスの投票が異例のグローバルへの影響の大きさを予測している内容がこれだ。

The centre can indeed hold in France’s presidential election
For all their flaws, polls are usually accurate. Here′s what they predict for a French vote with unusual global significance
Apr 10th 2017by THE DATA TEAM

中道派がフランスの大統領選挙を確かに制することができる。
不備はあるにしても投票はたいてい正確だ。フランスの投票が異例のグローバルへの影響の大きさを予測している内容がこれだ。

THE French presidential campaign is in full swing, with the first round scheduled for April 23rd and a likely run-off between the top two finishers on May 7th. The election has received an unusual amount of international attention because Marine Le Pen, the National Front candidate, has consistently led the polls. Her success or failure will be widely interpreted as a measure of the continued strength of nationalist populist movements, which enjoyed two triumphs last year in the Brexit referendum and Donald Trump′s election. 

swing:真っ最中で
run-off:決選投票

The first few months of the race have been highly volatile. The stunningly unpopular incumbent president, Francois Hollande of the Socialist Party, chose not to stand for reelection rather than face certain defeat. Francois Fillon, the conservative standard-bearer of the other mainstream party, has seen his chances sink after a French newspaper revealed an ill-timed scandal involving payments to his wife. 

stunningly:驚くほど
standard-bearer:政党の旗頭
ill-timed:折の悪い

Given the large number of candidates and the complexity of the two-stage vote, figuring out where the race stands is deceptively difficult. To provide readers with a clearer sense of what to expect, The Economist has built a statistical model to predict the outcome. First, in order to measure how accurate public surveys have been in the past, we consulted a database compiled by two political scientists, Will Jennings and Christopher Wlezien, of 642 French presidential polls taken since 1965—the first direct election during the Fifth Republic. 

deceptively:見かけとは違う
compiled:編集する 

Next, we aggregate all public polls taken during this year′s campaign, to produce a snapshot of the current state of the race. Finally, we conduct 10,000 random simulations of the election every day, each one representing a single plausible scenario given the latest polling averages, and see how often each candidate wins. Readers interested in learning more about the statistical minutiae of our efforts are invited to read the meaty technical appendix to this post. 

snapshot:スナップ写真
averages:平均値
minutiae:些細な事柄
meaty:内容の濃い

A run-off is seen as all but certain, since polls give the leaders merely half of the majority of the first-round vote necessary to avoid one. Indeed, no candidate in French history has ever won a first-round victory. During the two weeks between ballots, the two finalists will vie to win over the supporters of their eliminated rivals. In previous elections, supporters of the mainstream left- and right-wing parties have created an informal alliance, the “front republicain”, to keep the xenophobic National Front out of office. 

all but:おおむね
merely:単に
vie:競う
xenophobic:外国嫌いの

In 2002, when Ms Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie led the National Front into the second round against the conservative Jacques Chirac, Liberation, a centre-left newspaper, urged readers to “vote for the crook [meaning Mr Chirac], not the fascist [meaning Le Pen pere]”. They did: Mr Chirac won more than 80% of votes. Polling suggests Ms Le Pen is a heavy favourite to reach the second round this year. The front republicain seems likely to hold, but just how likely may depend on her opponent. 

crook :イカサマ師

Marine Le PenとEmmanuel Macronとの決選投票だが、その結果がどうなるか分析している。2002年のときはMarine Le Penの父親のJean-MarieをJacques Chiracが打ち負かした。今回は彼女がリードしているが果たしてどうなるのだろうか。この外国人嫌いのMarine Le Penなのかそれとも彼女の反対派なのか?Marine Le Penが勝ったらフランスはEUを撤退するだろう。そうなると、EUは維持できない。

日曜日。今日も本書きだ。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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