2017年05月08日

世界で最も危険な政府とどう付き合うか。 トランプは最も扱いにくい課題に取り組んでいる。

How to deal with the world’s most dangerous regime
Donald Trump grapples with his trickiest task
Apr 22nd 2017

世界で最も危険な政府とどう付き合うか。
トランプは最も扱いにくい課題に取り組んでいる。




NORTH KOREA can be as confusing as it is alarming. It is a hereditary Marxist monarchy. It has the world’s youngest supreme leader and also its oldest. The reigning tyrant, Kim Jong Un, is in his 30s; and his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, is the “eternal president” despite having died in 1994. To celebrate grandpa Kim’s birthday on April 15th, his grandson ordered warplanes to fly past in a formation spelling out his age: 105. He also ordered a gigantic parade, with goose-stepping soldiers and missiles on trucks. A male-voice choir belted out “Peace is guaranteed by our arms”, even as the regime threatens to rain nuclear destruction on its enemies and is building a missile designed to reach the continental United States. 

confusing:わかりにくい
alarming:不安を抱かせる
hereditary:世襲の
choir:合唱隊
belted:大声で歌う
even as:ちょうど〜のように

Dealing with the bellicose junior god-king will be one of Donald Trump’s trickiest tasks. It will also be the first big test of how he handles relations with China, which are shifting as the rising superpower challenges the Pax Americana in Asia (see our special report). There are no good options, but arriving at the least-bad ones will require understanding both the regime and the Asian geopolitical jigsaw into which it fits. It will also require patience. Ominously, Mr Trump says he has little when it comes to North Korea, and his vice-president, Mike Pence, says that “all options” are on the table. 

bellicose:好戦的な
least-bad:一番マトモな 
jigsaw:複雑な状況
Ominously:不吉なことに

Wanting to do something quickly is emotionally appealing. North Korea is a vile, blood-drenched dictatorship where any hint of disloyalty is punishable by gulag or death. Mr Kim has children imprisoned for their parents’ thought-crimes and his own relatives murdered on a whim. The prospect of such a man threatening Los Angeles is harrowing. Yet a pre-emptive strike on North Korea would be reckless beyond belief (see article). Its nuclear devices are hidden, possibly deep underground. Its missiles are dispersed on mobile launchers. Tokyo is just across the Sea of Japan. 

appealing:訴えるような
vile:ひどく不快な
blood-drenched:血まみれの 
gulag:強制労働収容所
thought-crimes:思想犯
whim:ふと思いついて
prospect:可能性
harrowing:悩ます
reckless:無謀な
belief:信じられないほど
dispersed :分散した

Seoul, the capital of peaceful, capitalist South Korea, is only a few miles from the border. Northern artillery and conventional missiles could devastate it; a conflict could rapidly turn nuclear and kill millions. Mr Trump cannot possibly want to start a war. His military actions in Syria and Afghanistan suggest that he is more cautious than his bluster makes him sound. But even creating the impression that he might strike first is dangerous. If Mr Kim were to believe that an American attack is imminent, he might order his own pre-emptive nuclear attack, with disastrous consequences. So Mr Trump should cool his rhetoric immediately. 

bluster:怒鳴り散らすこと
imminent:今にも起こりそうな

北朝鮮の金正恩は正気ではないので、気をつけなければならない。アメリカが本当に攻撃してくるという気配を彼が感じたら、核攻撃を仕掛けてくるかもしれない。あの国はまともではない。核も深いところにしまってあって、また、ミサイルも移動式でどこに配備しているか把握できない。ともかく冷静に対処しなければならない。

東京とかソウルは彼らが確実に狙える標的だ。トランプは話し合ってもいいと言っているが、どう解決しようというのだろうか。北朝鮮は何を求めているのだろうか。トランプは核を廃止すれば何を提供するというのだろうか。漢江の奇跡のような開発の資金と体制を提供しようというのだろうか。

火曜日。今日の夜はソニー生命の嶋岡副社長と会食。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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