2017年05月10日

世界で最も危険な政府とどう付き合うか。 トランプは最も扱いにくい課題に取り組んでいる。(2)

How to deal with the world’s most dangerous regime
Donald Trump grapples with his trickiest task
Apr 22nd 2017(2)

世界で最も危険な政府とどう付き合うか。
トランプは最も扱いにくい課題に取り組んでいる。(2)

Dealmaker, meet deal-breaker
For all his eccentricities, Mr Kim is behaving rationally. He watched Muammar Qadaffi of Libya give up his nuclear programme in return for better relations with the West—and end up dead. He sees his nuclear arsenal as a guarantee that his regime, and he, will survive. (Though it would be suicidal for him to use it.) Mr Trump can do little to change his mind. Economic sanctions that harm his people will not spoil his lunch. Cyber-attacks, which may account for the failure of some recent missile launches, can slow but not stop him. America can solve the Korean conundrum only with China’s help. 

eccentricities:風変わりな行動
behaving:行動する
rationally:理にかなって

China has leverage over Mr Kim. It accounts for 85% of North Korea’s foreign trade and could shut off its oil supply. But its interests are not the same as America’s. North Korea is its ally. China’s leaders do not like the Kim regime, but they do not wish to see it collapse and North Korea reunite, German-style, with the democratic South. That, China fears, would mean the loss of a valuable buffer. There are 28,500 American troops stationed in the South; China does not want them on its border. 

To contain North Korea—and to conduct a successful foreign policy more broadly—Mr Trump has to learn how to talk to China. His instinct is to do deals. Last week he tweeted that he told Xi Jinping, China’s president, that “a trade deal with the US will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!” Later he explained that his decision not to label China a currency manipulator, as he had threatened, was a quid pro quo for China helping out over North Korea. Dropping the currency threat was the right policy, but Mr Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy is exactly the wrong one. China would love to carve up the world bilaterally into spheres of influence, with the great powers dominating their regions and trading favours elsewhere. 

instinct:本能
quid pro quo:代価・代償
helping:援助する 

America has long been the guardian of something different: a rules-based order that applies to every country, big or small, and which has underpinned the relative peace and remarkable growth of the world since 1945. That Mr Trump appears to scorn this rules-based global order is worrying. The world would become a more dangerous place if America started letting China break the rules (for example, in the South China Sea) in exchange for help to resolve whichever issue happens to be in the news. A better response to China’s rise would be for America to strengthen the rules-based order and invite China to join it more actively. Alas, Mr Trump is unlikely to do this. 

underpinned:を支える
scorn:軽蔑してはねつける

So the best hope is that he or his diplomats persuade China that it is in its own interest to curb North Korea. And the way to do this is to talk about North Korea itself, not the yuan or American steel jobs. 

Three generations of Kims are enough
China does not gain if North Korea destabilises East Asia, or starts a regional arms race that leads Japan and South Korea to build their own nuclear weapons. Mr Trump should reassure his allies in Tokyo and Seoul that they remain under Uncle Sam’s protection. But he should also deal with China’s concerns. To that end, he could make it clear that freezing and then rolling back the North’s nuclear programme is his goal rather than regime change. He could also guarantee that, were the North to collapse into the arms of the South, America would keep its troops south of the current north-south boundary. China hates to admit that the Kim dynasty might not last, but it is rash not to plan for that possibility. 

gain:得をする
reassure:安心させる
rash:軽率な

The crucial message for Mr Kim as for his predecessors is that, if the North were to use its nukes, the regime would be obliterated. In the long run, reunification is inevitable and desirable. Meanwhile, the junior god-king can be deterred. 

obliterated:抹殺される
deterred:思いとどまらせる

北朝鮮はカダフィが核をやめる代わりに、西側からの援助をもらったが、結局消されたことを知っている。だから、金正恩は簡単には核の廃止には乗ってこない。アメリカは世界のアメリカであって、トランプの考えは間違っている。中国に対して、その覇権を譲ってはならない。中国が北朝鮮の命運を握っているのだから、彼らと話をするべきだろう。

たしかに、北朝鮮を攻撃するのは双方賢明だとは思っていない。今のところは引き伸ばすしかないようなことを言っているが、それも問題だ。中国も北朝鮮の核を不安視している。そのままでいるはずがない。どう行動するのは米中の意志がどう動くかだろう。そう長い先の話ではない。

水曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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