2017年05月11日

アメリカはイランに対する態度を見直す トランプはイランとの核交渉を放棄するのだろうか。

The U.S. Reviews Its Stance on Iran
Will Trump abandon the Iran nuclear deal?
Apr 25, 2017 

アメリカはイランに対する態度を見直す
トランプはイランとの核交渉を放棄するのだろうか。

Iran will focus on trying to ensure the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action's survival. Despite its efforts to differentiate itself from the previous administration in countering Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration will likely preserve the deal for now. Washington, however, may consider other options, such as sanctions on sectors outside Iran's energy sector, to pressure Tehran on foreign policy and human rights issues.

preserve:維持する

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is running out of time to formalize its policy on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The United States struck the deal with Iran and five other countries in July 2015 to keep the Islamic republic from pursuing its nuclear ambitions. In exchange for dozens of concessions on Iran's nuclear program, Washington agreed to suspend sanctions against Tehran, including measures restricting its vital oil industry. 

vital:極めて重要な

But the presidential waivers that Barack Obama issued, and then extended during his final week in office, will begin expiring in mid-May. If Trump declines to renew the waivers, sanctions on foreign companies facilitating the purchase of Iranian oil by foreign countries will snap back into effect around the same time Iranian voters head to the polls to elect their next president. On the other hand, if he opts to continue the waivers, Trump must first determine that doing so is in the best interests of the United States' national security. To that end, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced April 19 that National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster would launch and oversee an interagency review of the deal. 

waivers:撤回
snap:跳ね返す
opts:の方を選択する
interagency:政府省庁間の

News of the review put the Iranian government on edge. At the quarterly meeting of the JCPOA's signatories April 25 in Vienna, Tehran will try to ensure that, notwithstanding Washington's actions, the United States' European allies in the framework will stand behind the agreement. The evaluation doesn't necessarily portend a change in course for the White House, however, much less a unilateral withdrawal from the deal. Instead, the administration will likely preserve the deal for now and use other means — each carefully devised not to violate the JCPOA — to ramp up the pressure on Tehran. 

edge:緊張して
portend:よくない事態の前触れとなる
much less:ましてや〜ない
devised:考え出す
ramp:増やす

The Nuclear Option
McMaster, along with the administration's national security and foreign policy teams, will have to consider several difficult questions during the review. First and foremost is whether the JCPOA is effective, relative to other options the United States could try to deter Iran from developing a nuclear bomb. Trump lambasted the deal throughout his campaign for the presidency, and Tillerson, too, recently criticized it as the "same failed approach of the past that brought us to the current imminent threat we face from North Korea." 

deter:思いとどまらせる
lambasted:こき下ろす

Unlike North Korea, however, Iran has been holding up its end of the bargain, as the secretary of state acknowledged when he notified Congress of the impending review. Sanctions proved an effective tool against Iran, thanks to its dependence on oil exports and foreign trade to generate revenue and appease its vocal merchant class. The country's efforts at building a "resistance economy" flopped, sinking the rial's value and roiling voters ahead of the 2013 elections. The measures' suspension likewise has proved an effective incentive to keep Tehran's nuclear aspirations in check. 

holding :持ちこたえる
impending:差し迫った
appease :要求をなだめる
vocal ;声高に主張する
flopped:失敗する
rial:イランの通貨
roiling:荒れ狂う
suspension:未決定状態
check:抑制する

Keeping sanctions at bay is still a priority for Iran, and one the impending elections will not threaten. The current electoral process has so far proved to be as carefully managed and orchestrated as ever. Iran's Guardian Council made sure during the vetting process that the vote would be free of surprises, sidelining the entire populist faction by disqualifying former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and weeding out candidates who would challenge the establishment's authority. As a result, much of Iran's foreign and security policy will remain in place no matter who wins the upcoming vote. And for now, the country's leaders are more invested in shoring up the domestic economy than in building a nuclear bomb. 

bay:寄せ付けない・影響されない
threaten:の脅威になる
vetting:調べる
weeding:取り除く
place:うまく行って
shoring:ささえる

もうじきトランプはイランの制裁を継続するのかどうか決断する。イランは核開発よりも経済を優先しようとしている。もうじきイランの選挙が始まるが、その方針に違わないような方向で進んでいる。米がどう出ても、他の国の動向が変化しない事を望んでいる。

イランは核開発以外にもアメリカの気に入らないことはいくつかある。今のまま放置しておけばヒズボラを支援し、アサドを支援する。中東の方向がアメリカと違ってくる。核開発は止めたが、それ以外の問題はそのままになっている。更に、ハメネイは依然としてアメリカを非難している。

金曜日。今日はEarly Birdsの朝会で講演がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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