2017年05月12日

アメリカはイランに対する態度を見直す トランプはイランとの核交渉を放棄するのだろうか。(2)

Iran Nuclear Deal Timeline
Still, should Washington decide to reinstate its sanctions against Iran or pull out of the JCPOA altogether, the country may, in turn, resume its nuclear pursuits. When it entered negotiations, after all, it kept much of its infrastructure and research intact in the event that the deal fell through. The prospect of dealing with a nuclear crisis, let alone two at once, is likely enough to keep the United States in the JCPOA, so long as Iran continues to adhere to its terms. Furthermore, its withdrawal from the Iranian deal would undermine the United States' efforts to draw other aspiring nuclear powers, namely North Korea, to the negotiating table. 

reinstate:を復活させる
pursuits:続行
intact:そっくりそのままで
fell:失敗に終わる
let alone:まして〜でない
so long as :であるかぎり
aspiring:野心満々の

The Right Tools for the Job
But the nuclear program isn't the only issue at stake. The Obama administration pursued negotiations over the JCPOA having determined that Iran's nuclear development, of all its activities, was the greatest threat to regional and U.S. national security. Because of the negotiations' strict focus, sanctions became the penalty only for actions related to nuclear development; Washington tacitly promised Tehran that it would not reinstate the measures for other offenses, such as human rights violations or aggressive foreign policy. That doesn't mean the Obama administration gave up its prerogative to respond to these kinds of provocations, but rather that it responded to them differently. 

stake:問題となっている
tacitly:暗黙のうちに
offenses:侵害・違法行為
prerogative:特権
provocations:挑発

The Trump administration, by contrast, has made clear that it intends to take Iran to task on issues such as its ballistic missile program, its human rights record and, in particular, its involvement in regional conflicts. Considering that support for its proxy militias and the pursuit of a ballistic missile program are two cornerstones of its foreign policy, however, Iran isn't likely to give them up anytime soon. So as the Trump administration considers the possible repercussions of reinstating sanctions on Iran, it must also weigh the strategic benefits that using its strongest lever against Tehran could yield. 

repercussions:悪影響
So as:するために
yield:もたらす

Short of reinstating sanctions, the United States has several other options at its disposal for countering Iran. Washington could, for example, impose new sanctions on sectors outside Iran's energy industry or redouble its support for its regional allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). In fact, Secretary of Defense James Mattis' recent tour of the Middle East was intended to do just that. The United States has also taken a more proactive role in promoting further alliances and cooperation among its partners in the region. Trump has been encouraging Saudi Arabia, where he is reportedly considering making a visit next month, to improve its ties with Egypt and Iraq. So far, the effort seems to be gaining traction, especially in Egypt. At the same time, the United States, along with Israel, will continue to conduct covert operations against Iran. 

Short:以外は
disposal :自由になるような
countering :対抗する
redouble:倍増する
traction:支持
covert:ひそかな

The JCPOA, of course, is not a bilateral deal. If Washington lacks the support of its other co-signers, particularly the United Kingdom, France and Germany, pulling out of the framework could jeopardize its relationships with its European allies. And so long as Iran keeps adhering to the JCPOA, the agreement's European signatory countries will keep supporting it; Iran will try to use the quarterly review meeting as an opportunity to make sure of that. The biggest advocates of maintaining the pact may not be in Europe, however, but in the GCC, where the security ramifications of its failure are the most serious. With that (and other things) in mind, Iran has tried to establish a dialogue with its neighbors across the Persian Gulf to improve bilateral relations, which reached a low point over the past two years. 

jeopardize:危うくする
ramifications:成り行き・結果

Despite the Trump administration's efforts to project a stronger image to Iran than its predecessor did, the JCPOA will probably remain intact for now. Nevertheless, the United States may use its review of the deal as an opportunity to increase the pressure on Iran through other means. Washington may well unveil a new round of punitive measures when it announces its intention to extend the waivers on Iran's oil sanctions. The new administration's harsher tone with Iran, moreover, may signal that the Trump administration will respond swiftly and decisively to a violation of the agreement, perhaps even by pulling out of it. The extent of the response will depend on the type of breach. 

intact:そっくりそのままで
punitive:厳しい
breach:違反

トランプ政権は核開発だけでなく、弾道ミサイルの開発、人権問題などの課題についてもイランを追求しようとしている。アメリカは今までの核開発中止の協定には手を付けないだろう。イランの他の問題に対してさらなる制裁を考えているのではないだろうか。イランとしては制裁が解除され、経済が動き出した今、反対はしないだろう。その意味で、この交渉には大きな不安はなさそうだ。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。



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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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