2017年05月15日

トランプノミクスはなぜアメリカを再び偉大に出来ないのか。 アメリカの大統領が衝動的であり、薄っぺらなので、法の支配ばかりでなく、経済をも脅かしている。

Why Trumponomics won’t make America great again
The impulsiveness and shallowness of America’s president threaten the economy as well as the rule of law
May 13th 2017

トランプノミクスはなぜアメリカを再び偉大に出来ないのか。
アメリカの大統領が衝動的であり、薄っぺらなので、法の支配ばかりでなく、経済をも脅かしている。

impulsiveness:衝動的であること
shallowness:薄っぺらなこと
rule of law:法の支配




DONALD TRUMP rules over Washington as if he were a king and the White House his court. His displays of dominance, his need to be the centre of attention and his impetuousness have a whiff of Henry VIII about them. Fortified by his belief that his extraordinary route to power is proof of the collective mediocrity of Congress, the bureaucracy and the media, he attacks any person and any idea standing in his way. 

court:宮廷
impetuousness:せっかち
whiff:兆候
Fortified:を鼓舞する
collective:共同の・集団の
mediocrity:平凡

Just how much trouble that can cause was on sensational display this week, with his sacking of James Comey—only the second director of the FBI to have been kicked out. Mr Comey has made mistakes and Mr Trump was within his rights. But the president has succeeded only in drawing attention to questions about his links to Russia and his contempt for the norms designed to hold would-be kings in check. 

questions :疑惑
contempt:侮辱
norms:基準
check ;抑制する

Just as dangerous, and no less important to ordinary Americans, however, is Mr Trump’s plan for the economy. It treats orthodoxy, accuracy and consistency as if they were simply to be negotiated away in a series of earth-shattering deals. Although Trumponomics could stoke a mini-boom, it, too, poses dangers to America and the world. 

earth-shattering:大地を揺るがすほどの

Trumponomics 101
In an interview with this newspaper, the president gave his most extensive description yet of what he wants for the economy (see article). His target is to ensure that more Americans have well-paid jobs by raising the growth rate. His advisers talk of 3% GDP growth—a full percentage point higher than what most economists believe is today’s sustainable pace.

In Mr Trump’s mind the most important path to better jobs and faster growth is through fairer trade deals. Though he claims he is a free-trader, provided the rules are fair, his outlook is squarely that of an economic nationalist. Trade is fair when trade flows are balanced. Firms should be rewarded for investing at home and punished for investing abroad. 

squarely:明白に

The second and third strands of Trumponomics, tax cuts and deregulation, will encourage that domestic investment. Lower taxes and fewer rules will fire up entrepreneurs, leading to faster growth and better jobs. This is standard supply-side economics, but to see Trumponomics as a rehash of Republican orthodoxy is a mistake—and not only because its economic nationalism is a departure for a party that has championed free trade. 

strands:計画の要素
fire:に点火する
rehash:焼き直したもの
championed :擁護する

The real difference is that Trumponomics (unlike, say, Reaganomics) is not an economic doctrine at all. It is best seen as a set of proposals put together by businessmen courtiers for their king. Mr Trump has listened to scores of executives, but there are barely any economists in the White House. His approach to the economy is born of a mindset where deals have winners and losers and where canny negotiators confound abstract principles. Call it boardroom capitalism. 

mindset:考え方
canny:抜け目のない
confound :困惑させる
abstract:抽象的な

That Trumponomics is a business wishlist helps explain why critics on the left have laid into its poor distributional consequences, fiscal indiscipline and potential cronyism. And it makes clear why businessmen and investors have been enthusiastic, seeing it as a shot in the arm for those who take risks and seek profits. Stockmarkets are close to record highs and indices of business confidence have soared. 

indiscipline:無秩序
cronyism:縁故主義
shot in the arm:カンフル剤

In the short term that confidence could prove self-fulfilling. America can bully Canada and Mexico into renegotiating NAFTA. For all their sermons about fiscal prudence, Republicans in Congress are unlikely to deny Mr Trump a tax cut. Stimulus and rule-slashing may lead to faster growth. And with inflation still quiescent, the Federal Reserve might not choke that growth with sharply higher interest rates. 

self-fulfilling:自己実現化する
bully:を脅す
sermons:小言
prudence:用心深さ
quiescent:静止した
choke:成長を妨げる

トランプの政策を批判している。彼の思いつきで、場当たり的な政策は息詰まる。一時的に景気は良くなるだろうが、戦略的ではない。縁故主義で、財政の秩序がない。減税政策と規制緩和は経営者を元気づけるがそれも一時的だろう。FRBはそう高い金利を目指さないだろうから、インフレも起こらないだろう。国内への投資を奨励し、海外への投資には批判している。サプライサイドエコノミックスがうまく稼働するわけがない。

たしかにそうだ。まだ100日だから結果はまだ何もないが、彼が今までの言うとおりにやってしまうと経済は破綻してしまうだろう。ただ、彼は人の言うことを聞いたり、人選の目があるので、そうしたことがこのままスムースに行けばうまくいくだろう。もう少し様子を見ないとわからない。

火曜日。今日は若尾さんの講演会があり、楽しみだ。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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