2017年05月19日

トランプの次の100日はどうだろうか。

What Trump’s Next 100 Days Will Look Like
By Reva Goujon
VP of Global Analysis, Stratfor
Apr 25, 2017

トランプの次の100日はどうだろうか。

Trump's Foreign Policy Forecast

As U.S. President Donald Trump approaches his 100-day benchmark on Saturday, a media deluge has already begun bemoaning the demise of the liberal order, celebrating waves of deregulation or simply blaming the president's rocky start on the "disaster" he inherited on taking office. Rather than wade into that predictable morass, we prefer to focus instead on what the next 100 days hold in store. 

benchmark:比較評価基準
deluge:大洪水
bemoaning:嘆く
demise:終了
rocky:多難なスタート
wade:猛烈に攻撃する
morass:困難
store:待ち構えて

A Slippery Slope in Trade
Trump is often described as a "transactional" president who sees the world as one big negotiating table where he can leverage his business experience to exact better terms and conditions for American workers and corporations. Trump will therefore try to keep his core agenda focused on what he regards as his sweet spot: U.S. economy and trade. But even though the domestic economy may be the thing closest to the president's comfort zone, it's also where he comes up against a wall of institutional barriers. As a result, his much-touted tax overhaul attempting a steep reduction in the corporate tax rate will remain gridlocked in congressional battles over health care and the budget. 

comes up against:立ち向かう 
much-touted:しつこく売り込んでいる
gridlocked :行き詰った

The new U.S. administration will have a bit more room to maneuver on trade issues. Its simplistic fixation on countries with which the United States has a large deficit will become more nuanced with time. The United States cannot simply force other countries to buy more of its goods in volumes that would make an appreciable difference in the trade deficit. And in some cases, America's existing factory capacity is neither ready nor able to meet a sizable increase in demand from abroad. Instead, for select industries, Washington will try to boost U.S. purchases of American goods and the enforcement of trade measures to restrict certain imports from abroad. 

nuanced:特別な意味合いをもたせる
appreciable:はっきりわかるほどの

The steel sector is a logical place for the White House to focus its attention. After all, it's an industry that appeals to Trump's support base in the Rust Belt (though price hikes risk alienating big U.S. steel consumers); the United States has the domestic capacity to meet most of its steel demand (save for specific, often military-related applications); and there are several World Trade Organization (WTO) provisions that the United States can use to tighten restrictions on imports (well before Trump's election, Washington had placed more than 150 countervailing and anti-dumping duties on steel imports). 

alienating:遠ざける
countervailing:相殺するような

A number of these measures will inevitably invite challenges in the WTO, but a much bigger and more consequential question will still hang over U.S. trade partners. The Trump administration has outlined a trade policy to Congress that "will aggressively defend American sovereignty over matters of trade policy." Specifically, the White House has said the United States would not subject itself to WTO provisions that are "inconsistent" with U.S. law. This raises the question of just how far a protectionist White House will try to stretch trade loopholes — and what it will risk in the process. Trump has ordered the Department of Commerce to open an investigation into whether importing steel harms the national security interests of the United States by sidelining domestic producers. 

sovereignty:主権

Based on precedent and the current definition of national security in the context of trade, it will be difficult for the United States to argue that it does. But the national security clause is an extremely powerful tool in the hands of the executive. If the Trump administration expands that definition to include issues such as employment and domestic stability, the White House would have a much broader set of tools with which to target other industries under duress from foreign competition. 

duress:脅迫のもとで

Trump is thus at the top of a slippery slope. If the United States aggressively plays the national security card in trade, its trade partners will be compelled to do the same. The tit-for-tat would severely undermine the foundation of the international trade order that the United States has underpinned as part of its global hegemonic responsibilities for the past 70 years. 

compelled:強いる

Still, this isn't cause for alarmist predictions of the end of free trade as we know it. Decades of interwoven supply chains wrapped around the globe will not be undone by a single president. Moreover, there's no guarantee that the White House will follow this course to its extreme end. The Trump administration is not prepared to absorb the political cost of greatly compromising its trade links abroad, and the White House still needs a credible WTO to enforce many of the trade measures it is already trying to invoke. In fact, the mere threat of upending international trade governance may simply be a useful negotiating tactic as the White House tries to improve its bilateral trade terms with countries such as Mexico and China. 

alarmist:人騒がせな
mere:にすぎない
upending:ひっくり返す

トランプ政権が公約した幾つかのことを実行することは容易ではない。工場をアメリカももたらすことができるのだろうか。グローバルサプライチェーンは壊すことは出来ない。例えば鉄の製造を復興しようとしても、高いものは買わない。貿易相手国を制裁して、アメリカの赤字を減らそうとしても、相手国から相殺の仕返しが来る。そんなことをしてしまうと、今までアメリカが築いてきたグローバルの威信が消えてしまう。

トランプが公約したAmerica Firstは今までのやり方ではうまくいかないだろう。かれが当選したのはEstablishmentから利益を一般大衆へと言うことである。国家の繁栄は金持ちから大衆へ還元しようということで当選した。そうした根本的な視点でももう一度見直す必要がある。彼の提言した施策は稚拙すぎる。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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