Risky Readjustments in the Middle East
As tremors spread across Europe and Asia, the United States will be occupied by trying to dodge pockets of political quicksand throughout the Middle East. The Syrian battlefield offers opportunities for decisive shows of military action, as demonstrated recently when Trump ordered a limited strike on a Syrian air base in response to a chemical weapons attack. But Syria is also a siren song for mission creep that the United States will struggle to resist while staying focused on the fight against the Islamic State. 

tremors：身震い
dodge：素早く身をかわす
quicksand：流砂・泥沼状態
decisive show：明白な見世物
siren：誘惑の言葉
mission creep ：ミッション・クリープ、終わりの見えない展開　本来は米軍事用語で任務を遂行する上で目標設定が明確でなく当初対象としていた範囲を拡大したり、いつ終わるか見通しが立たないまま人や物の投入を続けていかなくてはならなくなった政策を意味し批判的に使われる言葉

Within that fight, Russia will alternate between playing spoiler and mediator, trying to poke and prod the United States into a more productive dialogue. Turkey, fresh off its win in a recent constitutional referendum, can also be expected to butt heads with the Americans, Russians and Iranians while staking out its own sphere of influence across northern Syria and Iraq in the name of containing the Kurds and protecting the Sunnis against Iranian encroachment. 

alternate：交互に起こる
spoiler：有力補候補者のじゃまをする妨害候補者
mediator：調停者
poke and prod：突つき回す
fresh：直後に
butt ：衝突する
staking ：見張る
encroachment：侵食

The leading Sunni powers of the region, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, will find this U.S. president much more willing to help keep Iran at bay than the last. While former U.S. President Barack Obama undertook the task of neutralizing the Iranian nuclear threat so that the United States could avoid being pulled into another Middle Eastern war, Trump will now work to further tilt the regional balance of power toward the Sunni camp. This doesn't mean the Trump administration is prepared to walk away from its nuclear deal with Iran and reopen yet another potential theater for conflict. 

bay：を寄せ付けない
last：以前よりも
undertook：引き受ける
tilt：傾ける

Instead, the White House will take a tougher stance on Iran by reinforcing its Sunni allies in proxy battles in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. Sanctions that directly interfere with the Iranian nuclear deal will likely be averted, and sanctions waivers tied to the nuclear deal will likely be extended, but additional sanctions related to human rights abuses and Iran's sponsorship of terrorism can be expected. And with Iran's presidential election set for May 19, a hard-nosed U.S. administration's efforts to keep Iran in check will have the unintended effect of bolstering Iranian hard-liners, injecting more uncertainty into the tenuous working relationship between Washington and Tehran. 

interfere：干渉する
hard-nosed：鼻っ柱の強い
check：抑える
injecting：注入する
tenuous：もろい

中東におけるアメリカの政策は今までのオバマ政権から大きく変わることはない。ただ、イランに対しての核交渉による経済制裁の解除は継続するだろうが、人権問題とかテロへの支援に対する制裁を新たに考えるだろう。ロシアやトルコがいろいろな動きをしてくるだろうが、トルコやサウジのようなスンニ派への姿勢は変えないだろう。

ISISはもうじきこの中東から消滅するだろうが、その後のシリアがどうなるのか。ロシア、イラン、トルコ、アメリカとのパワーバランスがどう変化していくのか全く読めない状況にある。イランはロハーニが再選さたので、ここに書いてあるような危惧はなくなった。

火曜日。今日は住友化学の元副社長の高尾さんとの会食がある。ではまた明日。