Deepening Crisis in the Caribbean
The United States will also have a tough time ignoring the alarms sounding in the Caribbean in the months ahead. Deteriorating economic conditions in Venezuela have finally given way to large demonstrations in the country's urban core, including the poorest neighborhoods of Caracas where the once-powerful ideology of Chavismo has faded. The risk of state-run oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) defaulting on its debt will rise substantially in the second half of the year, adding yet another source of instability. 

substantially：かなり

As that specter looms, the Venezuelan government — led by embattled President Nicolas Maduro and riddled with corrupt officials trying to evade extradition — will take steps to consolidate power into a one-party state and hunker down for the impending struggle in the streets. But deep rifts among the security and military forces charged with quashing unrest threaten to tear the government apart. The United States has the option of accelerating the administration's collapse by leveling weightier sanctions against PDVSA, but with a number of other crises and priorities to consider, it could opt to keep its distance as the country crumbles from within. 

specter：不安材料
embattled：多くの問題を抱えた
riddled ：いっぱいで
evade：避ける
extradition：本国送還
hunker：腰を据えてかかる
impending：差し迫った
rifts：亀裂
quashing：制圧する
leveling：狙いを定める
crumbles：ボロボロに崩れる
from within：内部から

100 Days in Perspective
Despite the prestige the U.S. presidency traditionally carries, it is an office designed by America's founding fathers to be hemmed in from many sides. And though the executive branch has a little more room to shape foreign policy than domestic law, it must often contend with jagged geopolitical realities that cut into, rather than bend with, the president's worldview. "America First" also means "China First," "Russia First," "Germany First" and so on. 

prestige：威信
hemmed：取り囲まれる
contend：困難に取り組む
jagged：ギザギザの
cut ：食い込む
bend：柔軟に対応する

Each state will pursue its national interests and, in doing so, often find its imperatives collide with others'. The irreversible technological, demographic and economic forces shaping global trade, the menace of a Northeast Asian war started by North Korea, the historical distrust between Russia and the West and within Europe itself, and the deeply rooted ideological and sectarian battles being waged within the Islamic world are a daunting collection of crises for any president to grapple with. And whether we look 100 days behind us or 100 days ahead, there is no question that the bounds of U.S. presidential power are being put to the test. 

imperatives：緊急になすべきこと
collide：互いに衝突する
irreversible：後戻りできない
menace：脅威
daunting：人をひるませるような
grapple：取り組む
bounds：限界

カリブ海諸国ではベネズエラが問題だが、他の課題を考えるとその優先度は高くないので、アメリカはほっておくだろう。アメリカの大統領は国内問題よりも外交政策を自由に操作できる。America Firstと言っているが、そう簡単ではない。緊急の課題は山積している。グローバルの貿易、北朝鮮、ロシアと西側との不信、EU内部の意思疎通、中東問題。これからの１００日をどうしていくのだろうか。

トランプは今までの大統領とは違って、破天荒だ。だから、うまくすれば世界が変わる。下手をすれば弾劾される。彼の問題は外交政策だけでなく、政治そのものにも素人だ。国務長官のティラーソンも一緒だ。NAFTAは維持していきそうだが、TPPとかAIIBはこれからどうするのだろうか？

水曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。