2017年05月27日

中国は北朝鮮問題の回答なのか?

Is China the Solution to the North Korean Problem?
Apr 25, 2017  Stratfor

中国は北朝鮮問題の回答なのか?

As diplomacy breaks down on the Korean Peninsula, all eyes are fixed on a pair of events that stand to either worsen or ease the tension mounting between the United States and North Korea. On April 25, North Korea celebrated the 85th anniversary of its military's establishment, an occasion that has been accompanied by missile tests in the past and that now comes as expectations of a sixth nuclear test by Pyongyang rise. Then, three days after the North Korean military's birthday, the U.N. Security Council will convene to discuss the country's persistent march toward a demonstrable long-range nuclear weapons capability. And as the threat emanating from North Korea grows, Washington will be more and more likely to use the summit to call for heavier sanctions against its belligerent adversary. 

rise:怒りの反応
convene:招集する
emanating:生じる

Based on the completed review of Washington's North Korea policy, the U.S. administration has no plan to respond to Pyongyang's next nuclear test with military might. But U.S. President Donald Trump has taken every opportunity to show that he still considers all options — including a military strike — to be on the table. 

might:軍事力

This won't, however, do much to change North Korea's own calculations. Pyongyang no longer sees its nuclear weapons program as a chip to be bargained away for economic and security concessions from Washington. Instead, developing a credible nuclear deterrent has become a matter of national security, and a crucial one at that. North Korea will forge ahead with its nuclear program undeterred, bringing it one step closer to its final stage — and bringing the country closer to a clash with regional powers intent on stopping it. 

forge:ピッチを上げる
undeterred:阻止されていない

In this, at least, the United States and China have found a common goal. But as the two embattled administrations have discovered, the mutual need to rein in North Korea can be as much a divisive force as a uniting one. 

embattled :多くの問題をかかけた
divisive:対立を生む

Sanction, or Be Sanctioned
The United States has both dangled carrots and brandished sticks in trying to secure China's cooperation on North Korea. On one hand, Washington has begun to soften its tone on trade issues causing contention with Beijing in an apparent show of goodwill. On the other, the White House hasn't been shy about issuing a clear ultimatum: Work with us to press North Korea into abandoning its nuclear program or suffer the consequences when we act alone. (This would likely take the form of secondary sanctions against China or a buildup of missile defenses in the region, each of which would create headaches in Beijing.) Washington's message hasn't fallen on deaf ears; China has already taken clear steps to cut down on cross-border trade, particularly in coal, and limit financial transactions with its unruly neighbor. Beijing has vowed to ensure that oil supplies flowing into North Korea will dry up if Pyongyang conducts another nuclear test. 

dangled:ぶらさがる
brandished:振り回す
contention :論争・勝てる見込み
ultimatum:最後通牒
suffer:に直面する
on deaf ears:聞き流す
unruly:手に負えない

Despite their seeming alignment, though, the United States and China have widely diverging objectives on the Korean Peninsula. By putting pressure on Pyongyang, Beijing is seeking to preempt a unilateral intervention by Washington, boost the remote prospects of Chinese-led negotiations and hedge against future trade friction with the United States — but not to sever North Korea's economic lifelines. Washington, however, has made it clear that dialogue with Pyongyang will arise only if its purpose is to dismantle the North's nuclear program. To that end, the United States relies on China's economic leverage against North Korea as a primary means of altering Pyongyang's behavior. 

alignment:協力
diverging:分裂する
preempt:先手を打つ
boost:増大させる
remote prospects:僅かな可能性
hedge:損失を防ぐ策を取る
friction:摩擦
sever:切断する

Washington's decision to enlist Beijing against its neighbor and ally makes a good deal of sense. After all, China is North Korea's primary source of economic support, which means its participation in any sanctions against Pyongyang is critical to their success. Washington has long seen Beijing's lax enforcement of sanctions and exploitation of loopholes in previous sanctions regimes, as well as the access many Chinese banks and businesses maintain across the border, as acts of complicity in North Korean misdeeds. 

enlist:協力を求める
good deal of sense:かなりうなずける
lax:手を抜いた
complicity:共謀
misdeeds:不正行為

アメリカは北朝鮮を懐柔するために、中国に依存しようとしている。今まで、中国は北朝鮮にはきちんとした制裁をしたことはない。アメリカは中国が北朝鮮に対して制裁をしないのであれば、自分だけで動くと脅している。中国との交渉にもいい条件を提示している。一方、中国もアメリカに対応して、それなりの制裁を加えている。

こうした米中の交渉がこの秋に向けてどう具体的に動いていくのかは予想できない。かと言って、トランプは一年は待たないだろう。核の攻撃は相当の被害を出してしまうので、中国は金正恩に対して身の安全を保証して、政権を交代させるのではないだろうか。

日曜日。今日は本書きだ。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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