2017年05月29日

中国は北朝鮮問題の回答なのか?(3)

Beijing's Bottom Line
That the United States has once again turned to China to solve its North Korean problem speaks to its lack of viable alternatives. But Beijing's choices for dealing with the pariah state are no less constrained. For decades, China has based its North Korea policy on several, often contradictory, goals: to ensure the existence of a pliable and stable buffer state on its doorstep; to keep the United States from expanding its security role in Northeast Asia; and to block the re-emergence of a unified peninsula. 

Bottom Line:容認できるギリギリの線
viable:実現可能な
pariah:嫌われ者
no less:たしかに
constrained:制約される
pliable:柔軟な

So, China's historical tolerance toward Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions is hardly surprising. From Beijing's perspective, the controversial program has been a necessary means of safeguarding the North Korean government's grip on power and preventing a security vacuum that might invite U.S. interference. But as the prospect of a nuclear North Korea has shifted from a distant possibility to an impending threat, China has had to come to terms with a number of new and uncomfortable realities. South Korea, Japan and possibly Taiwan are eager to build a regional ballistic missile defense system led by the United States, perhaps even someday seeking nuclear weapons programs of their own. Meanwhile, as China has found itself less able to restrain the recalcitrant government in Pyongyang, the threat of military conflict on its border — or negotiations with Washington that exclude Beijing — has grown. 

security vacuum:治安の不在
impending:差し迫った
terms:諦めて受け入れる
recalcitrant:反抗的な

There is always the risk that exacerbating North Korea's economic problems would push Pyongyang away from its only ally — Beijing — and toward tactics of last resort. 

Faced with its own constraints and challenges, China will have to decide whether its long-standing strategy on North Korea is sustainable, and whether it is willing to accept another nuclear power in its backyard. Beijing is not without options; it could throw its full weight behind either Washington or Pyongyang, or do neither and preserve the status quo. But each path is riddled with potential pitfalls, and the time to choose one of them is running out. 

riddled:で一杯で

The Least-Bad Option
Finding a diplomatic solution to the North Korean problem continues to be China's best bet. Under ideal circumstances, Pyongyang would agree to suspend its nuclear program and join Beijing in bilateral or multilateral negotiations. China hasn't given up on this outcome just yet: It has repeatedly called for the resumption of stalled peace talks. But with North Korea showing no interest in trading away its nuclear program, and the United States refusing to engage in negotiations without it, the likelihood of Beijing striking its grand bargain is low at this point. 

Least-Bad:一番まともな選択肢
best bet:最善の策
resumption:再開
grand bargain:重要な取引

Other avenues toward North Korean denuclearization would present even greater perils than those China currently faces. Intense debates are underway within Chinese policy circles to determine Beijing's choices for addressing Pyongyang's nuclear program, giving rise to proposals from offering North Korea a security guarantee to supporting a decapitation strike against the government of Kim Jong Un. The former, a substantial reversal of Beijing's long-held policy of non-interference abroad, would not sway Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear project, while the latter would scarcely appeal to Beijing. Because ultimately, there is no guarantee that removing the obstinate leader would yield better results than simply leaving him in office, or that the United States would not seize the opportunity to extend its reach in China's neighborhood. 

rise:引き起こす
decapitation:首を切り落とす
sway:揺さぶる
obstinate:頑固な

北朝鮮をなんとかしようとするアメリカは、中国を動かそうとしているのだが、中国としてはそう多くのオプションをもっているわけではない。今までの中国の政策に反して、北朝鮮の安全保障を提示するか、北朝鮮を崩壊させるかしかない。後者は取りそうにないとすれば、前者になるだろう。

中国は、北朝鮮が核を持つことにはいい思いはしないので、何らかのアクションをせざるを得ないだろう。この文章では北朝鮮に対して安全保障するという案だが、具体的にどういうことだろうか。核開発をやめさせなければ米中も不安だ。ということは今のままの金正恩の体制を望んでいない。中国は金正恩の亡命を保証するということなのだろうか。

火曜日。午後、揚原さん会社訪問。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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