2017年06月03日

ロシアは北朝鮮に対して好機を掴んでいる。 ロシアは北朝鮮と比較的短い国境に接しているが、その歴史は長く、経済的にも財務的にもその結びつきを強めている。(3)

When China recently threatened to cut off fuel exports to North Korea if it conducted its sixth nuclear weapons test, Russia hinted it could replace at least some of that supply. Most Russian fuel destined for North Korea ships from Siberian firms through China. On occasion, Russia has sent fuel directly from Vladivostok to Rajin. The value of Russian fuel exports to North Korea reportedly dropped from $18 million in 2015 to just more than $1 million last year. However, NK Pro, a North Korea watchdog agency, claims there was no decrease in the number of fuel tankers traveling between Russia and North Korea last year, leading to the possibility that Moscow underreported the amount. Future energy cooperation could include a natural gas pipeline project and electricity exports from Russia to North Korea. 

hinted:ほのめかす
underreported:過小に報告する

North Korea relies on the income from its coal exports, which were recently targeted by a United Nations ban. However, exports of foreign coal through North Korean transit points are allowed. In 2013 and 2014, a subsidiary of Russian mining conglomerate Evraz delivered more than 170,000 tons of coal to North Korea for export, and Severstal, another big mining firm, added to the total in 2015 when the port at Rajin began to expand. The U.N. ban will add the opportunity for Russia to export North Korean coal under its flag if it chooses. 

One of the most successful ways that the two countries have expanded their cooperation is through employing temporary North Korean workers in Russia. Nearly 50,000 North Koreans were granted Russian work permits in 2015, up 27 percent from the previous year. The North Koreans have helped fill jobs in Russia's Far East, where labor shortages have persisted despite numerous campaigns aimed at persuading Russians to migrate to the region. In April, the Russian parliament passed a bill allowing foreign workers from a handful of countries (including North Korea) to travel visa-free to Vladivostok. Russia estimates that North Korea receives $170 million in remittances from its workers in Russia, and in March, the two countries agreed to expand labor immigration. 

All Is Not Rosy
Although Pyongyang and Moscow are moving toward closer alignment and Russia is building a foundation that will allow it to help ease the pressure on North Korea, Moscow in the past has acted cautiously when it comes to its small, eastern neighbor. As with the rest of the world, North Korea's nuclear proliferation concerns Russia, particularly since the North's nuclear weapons test site sits just 200 miles from Vladivostok. Moreover, Russia, which is tied to nuclear weapons reduction pacts with the United States, is increasingly preoccupied with nuclear proliferation around the world. 

preoccupied:夢中にする

Russia, which has traditionally aligned its policies on North Korea with those of China, is loath to act outside of China's wishes. However, despite China's increasingly firm stance on North Korea, Russia's maneuvering to put itself in position to help ease the pressure on North Korea would not necessarily be a violation of Beijing's aims. Yet, if it props up North Korea too much, Russia's actions could be a lightning rod, drawing criticism away from China's failure to reel in the North. 

loath:することに気が進まない
props:テコ入れする
lightning rod:避雷針・非難を受ける人
drawing:中国の失敗の批判をかわす
reel:魚をリールでたぐり寄せる

Still, Russia will keep its options open as it deals with problems stemming from accusations of meddling in Western elections and media, its role in the Syria and Ukraine conflicts, and increasing domestic dissatisfaction. Its potential influence on the North Korean situation could give it limited leverage in negotiations over those other areas. Though Russia alone cannot solve the North Korean problem, it could move the dial just enough to either play spoiler or ally to any efforts by the West to solve it. 

options:決定を保留する
stemming:に起因する
meddling:干渉
move the dial:方向を変える
spoiler:妨害する側

ロシアは中国が北朝鮮に制裁しているのを横目で見て、自分が北朝鮮への支援をすることで、北朝鮮との関係を築こうとしている。表面上は貿易量が減っているのだが、実際はそうではないようだ。ただ、ロシアも自分だけではこの北朝鮮の核問題を解決することは出来ないので、西側の動きを見守ってどう対応するのかは躊躇している。

ロシアはしたたかに、米中の漁父の利を得ようとしている。制裁に協力していいるようだが、していない。プーチンらしい。ただ、ロシアも北朝鮮の核の脅威を感じている。こうしたプーチンの動きに対してトランプはそうした彼の策に対抗した策を講じることができるのだろうか?

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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