2017年06月05日

文在寅が韓国の大統領の選挙で地滑り的な大勝利を収めた。 この国の保守主義者たちがどれほどよくやったかは注目に値する。

Moon Jae-in wins South Korea’s presidential elections by a landslide
As remarkable is how well the country’s conservatives did
May 10th 2017 | SEOUL | Asia

文在寅が韓国の大統領の選挙で地滑り的な大勝利を収めた。
この国の保守主義者たちがどれほどよくやったかは注目に値する。

HE WAS imprisoned for months for protesting, then as a student, against the dictatorship of Park Chung-hee in the 1970s. After millions demonstrated for the removal of Park Geun-hye, General Park’s daughter, South Koreans voted on May 9th for that former student dissident, Moon Jae-in, to succeed her. Mr Moon has become South Korea’s first liberal president in almost a decade, elected in an unusual snap election triggered two months ago by Ms Park’s sacking. He won 41% of the vote in the single-round system with no minimum threshold: a remarkably strong mandate in a contest among 13 candidates, the most crowded race in South Korea’s electoral history. His 17 percentage-point lead on the runner-up, a conservative, is the highest ever. 

no minimum threshold:何かが起きる最小の限界値なしで
runner-up:2位の者

Still, Mr Moon’s victory was no surprise: he had led the polls for four months; support for his Minjoo party during the two-month campaign for the presidency hit its highest on record. Ms Park’s trial on charges of abuse of power and the demanding or collecting of 59bn won ($52m) in bribes began last week. She is a bitter disappointment for many voters who had been charmed, in the election that brought her to power in 2012, by her reputation for integrity. Expectations are high for Mr Moon, during his single five-year term, to see through the “regime change” he promises. His promises to root out corruption that flows from close links between government and big business—“clearing out the evil”, he has called it—and to create a fairer society struck a chord in recent months. Mr Moon says he will set up a special department to get to the bottom of the presidential scandal. 

Minjoo party:民主党 
charmed:魅了する
integrity :誠実さ
chord:共感を呼び起こす
get to the bottom of :真相を探る

Over 77% voted, the highest turnout in two decades. He has enormous appeal for South Korea’s disenchanted voters, especially the unemployed young: over half of those aged between 20 and 40 voted for him, according to exit polls. He has promised to reserve a third of over 800,000 new jobs he claims he can create, mainly in the public sector, for the young. He also wants to hike the minimum wage. In his acceptance speech on May 10th, Mr Moon pledged to build a country “where rules and logic apply”. Kim Hyung-jun, a young father who took his toddler to a polling station in central Seoul on May 9th, said that he was voting to create a better society for his daughter: one “where everyone begins at the same line”, not where “the rich and powerful have a head start”. 

disenchanted:幻滅した
hike:賃金を引き上げる

Mr Moon grew up poor. His parents are refugees from Hungnam, a North Korean port city evacuated in 1950 shortly after the start of the Korean war. The family was resettled in Geoje, where he was born (the southern island has produced another South Korean president in the democratic era, Kim Young-sam). Mr Moon began his political career as chief of staff to Roh Moo-hyun, a late liberal president in office from 2003 to 2008, with whom he had set up a law firm in the 1980s dealing with human-rights cases. Mr Moon then ran for the presidency himself in 2012, and was narrowly defeated by Ms Park in a two-way race. He often appeared at the million-strong protests that began against her in October. 

evacuated:避難する
million-strong:総勢100万人の

The challenges he faces now as president are formidable. He comes to power at a time of unprecedented flux in North-East Asia: China, South Korea’s main economic partner, is tormenting it over the installation of an American anti-missile defence system known as THAAD, which went into operation last week. Confused policy towards the peninsula under Donald Trump has ratcheted up tension and risked undermining the alliance that has long helped protect South Korea against the existential threat posed by the North. Mr Trump abruptly threatened a fortnight ago to make the South pay the $1bn cost of THAAD. As the American president has declared an end to an era of “strategic patience” towards the North, Mr Moon has threatened, for his part, to review the deal finalised under Ms Park. 

formidable:並外れた・すばらしい
flux:不安定
tormenting:をひどく苦しめる
Confused:曖昧な
threatened:切迫した

How to deal with a threatening North Korea became a major issue during the election campaign. Mr Moon calls for more engagement and dialogue with the North. But hawks’ fears that Mr Moon will reopen an old liberal era of “sunshine” that gave the North the benefit of the doubt along with lashings of aid are surely overdone. Since that era North Korea has exploded five underground nuclear devices and ramped up its belligerent threats. Scott Snyder of the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think-tank, says that resolutions passed by the UN Security Council have blocked economic deals that would have been allowed when Mr Moon worked under Roh. Nor do South Koreans want to be seen as bowing to pressure from China. 

lashings:たっぷりの
overdone:しすぎる
bowing:甘んじる・屈する

And then, even if Mr Moon were inclined to reverse policy towards North Korea, he would have to contend with the politics of the National Assembly. His Minjoo party does not hold a majority, and the next parliamentary elections do not take place until April 2020. Hong Joon-pyo, the presidential candidate who represented Ms Park’s former party (then Saenuri, now rebranded as Liberty Korea), had a remarkably strong showing in the election, of 24%. Ahn Cheol-soo, who ran under the banner of the People’s Party, a centrist group that split from Minjoo last year, supports THAAD and opposes Mr Moon’s plan to reopen the Kaesong industrial complex on the border with North Korea, a sunshine-era initiative that Ms Park shuttered. 

contend :取り組む・争う
shuttered:停止する

Mr Moon will need to negotiate with him and others to govern. He has already been courting Mr Ahn’s party: both parties, he says, “come from the same roots”. Some suggest it could even decide to merge again with Minjoo, which would give the ruling party a 150-seat majority. On May 10th he appointed Lee Nak-yon, current governor of South Jeolla province, as his prime minister, promising to share more power and responsibility with his cabinet. That includes plans to introduce a system that reflects opinion-poll results in government appointments. 

courting:機嫌を取る

Support for Liberty Korea also suggests the new president will be governing a fractured nation. A “resentful pocket” of conservatives, says Shin Gi-wook of Stanford University, has coalesced around Mr Hong. He has referred to civic organisations, many of which led the protests against Ms Park, as “thieving bastards”, and pledged to carry out the first executions in two decades; his campaign slogan promised a South Korea free of “pro-North leftists”. This old-school conservatism continues to resonate, particularly in Gyeongsang—an eastern region that, as the Park family base, has long been a conservative stronghold—and with the elderly: half of those over 60 voted for Mr Hong. 


resentful :憤慨している
coalesced:結合する
resonate:共感を呼び起こす

Other rifts, too, will test Mr Moon’s promise, in his acceptance speech, to be a “president for all”. Shim Sang-jung, head of the Justice Party, received more votes than any other minor progressive candidate has in previous elections: she is the only candidate to support an anti-discrimination act to uphold the rights of minorities. According to exit polls, those in their 20s voted in greater numbers for Yoo Seung-min, a minor reformist conservative, than they did for Mr Hong. On his first day in office, Mr Moon says that he will be speaking to the heads of all four opposition parties before holding a meeting with his own. 

rifts:仲違い

文在寅が韓国の大統領になったが、彼は中国、アメリカ、北朝鮮との課題の渦中にある。国内においては圧倒的な優位で当選したのだが、彼の党は与党ではない。2020年まで議会の選挙がない。そうした中で、北朝鮮との関係をどうもっていくのかは容易ではない。盧泰愚のときのように、開城工業団地を再開しても、また、その利益を持っていかれてしまいそうだ。彼の言う対話はままならない。

火曜日。今日は明日の塾の準備だ。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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