2017年06月13日

ドナルド・トランプによる危機、混沌そしてその世界。 アメリカの外交政策を準備する目標は新たな災難を避けることだ。

Crises, chaos and the world according to Donald Trump
The organising goal of US foreign policy is the avoidance of fresh calamities
MAY 18, 2017 by: Philip Stephens

ドナルド・トランプによる危機、混沌そしてその世界。
アメリカの外交政策を準備する目標は新たな災難を避けることだ。




The story told by foreign policy types in Donald Trump’s administration has been one of a president “normalised” by the office. From time to time, this narrative takes hold. Briefly. Then Mr Trump blows it up by sacking the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation or sharing sensitive intelligence with the Russian foreign minister. When the Republican senator Robert Corker frets about a “downward spiral” in the White House he is guilty only of understatement. 

normalised:正常化する
takes hold:支配する
frets:気をもむ
understatement:控えめに述べること

Mr Trump is about to set off on his first overseas trip, taking in visits to allies in the Middle East and Europe. This as his presidency is engulfed daily by revelations about the past relationship with Vladimir Putin’s Russia and efforts to deflect investigations into the Kremlin connections. Even before the latest disclosures by the Washington Post and New York Times, the tension in the foreign policy establishment was palpable. The organising goal of US foreign policy has been distilled as the avoidance of fresh calamities. 

engulfed:取り囲まれる
deflect:そらす
palpable:明白な
distilled:蒸留して作る

Russia apart, the president’s advisers have claimed to have done much in persuading Mr Trump to adjust to international realities. Mr Trump used to think Nato was obsolete. Now he does not. A cheerleader for Brexit, he looked forward to the break-up of the EU. Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel persuaded him the union is here to stay. To prove the point, Mr Trump is planning to visit the headquarters in Brussels of both organisations. 

apart:ロシアはさておき

Officials point to other about-turns. Mr Trump started out telling China’s president Xi Jinping that the US might drop the longstanding One China policy towards Taiwan. Now he speaks of the Chinese leader almost as a close chum. Question marks put over Washington’s commitment to its alliances with South Korea and Japan have been removed. As for the president’s hopes for a grand bargain with Mr Putin, they have fallen victim to the multiple investigations into the links between Moscow and Mr Trump’s campaign team. 

about-turns:意見を急に変える
chum:なかよし

The foreign policy milestones of the first months of the administration are thus chalked up in the terms of successive reversals of positions taken by Mr Trump during his campaign. Surreal, certainly, but less dangerous than had the president persisted on his original course. Even on trade, where the going has been tougher for his advisers, Mr Trump has been deflected from launching a full-scale trade war with China or Mexico. 

chalked:のせいにする
reversals:反転・挫折
Surreal:超現実的な
deflected:かわす

Credit for the “normalisation” is allocated to James Mattis, the secretary for defence, HR McMaster, the national security adviser, and, to a lesser extent, Rex Tillerson, the secretary of state. As military men, Messrs Mattis and McMaster have imposed a measure of discipline and order on national security policy, though neither, I think, would call themselves grand strategists. Mr Tillerson, the former boss of Exxon, sometimes looks lost. Announcing a radical shake-up of the state department, he was then heard to ask a former business associate for ideas as to how he might go about it. 

to a lesser extent:それほどではないが
Messrs:Mrの複数形
measure of discipline:規律の対策
looks lost:当惑したようだ
shake-up:大改革
heard:尋ねているのが聞こえた



Some overseas leaders, particularly in the Middle East, prefer to do business with Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law. Where others see multiple conflicts of interest these potentates are comfortable mixing business and foreign policy. They are used to politics as a family affair and to the blurring of lines between public policy and private gain. 

potentates:統治者
blurring:見えにくくさせる

It is a measure of just how low expectations have sunk that diplomats in Washington shrug their shoulders at such shenanigans. Damage control scarcely adds up to a foreign policy for the world’s sole superpower — especially when the damage is being inflicted by the person who is supposed to be in control. 

shenanigans:ごまかし
inflicted:もたらす

Stories abound of the chaos in the White House — of a president at once convinced that he is right about everything and gripped by fears that he will be seen to fail. Aides walk in and out of favour, factions fight it out, official papers go unread and meetings rarely have agendas. And, most dangerously unpredictable, no one knows what Mr Trump will say, or tweet, next. In the memorable description of one close observer, advisers face a constant struggle against the “sheer depth of the president’s ignorance”. 

abound:溢れている
gripped:恐怖心にかられる
favour:気に入られたり、気に入られなかったり
factions:派閥争い・内紛
depth:全くの無知の深さ まったく知らないということ

Anything can be upended at any moment. Thus it was the president who drew the explicit link between his decision to sack James Comey and the FBI director’s investigations into the Trump campaign’s Russia connection. Mr McMaster sought to play down the presidential sharing of intelligence with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov about Islamist terrorist plots — only for Mr Trump to tweet he had nothing to apologise for. Now it seems that the president asked the then FBI director to go easy on Michael Flynn, the national security adviser sacked after revelations about his close connections to Moscow. 

upended:ひっくり返す
play down:過小評価する・軽視する
go easy:寛大になる 




The sentiment most often heard by visitors to Washington, from Republicans and Democrats, is that things cannot go on like this. It is often followed by the prediction that for the foreseeable future they probably will. The reasoning is as cynical as they come. Much as they would like to be rid of Mr Trump, Congressional Republicans think they are safer politically backing the president than sacking him. If and when that calculus changes, the president will be gone. Until then, the US’s foreign policy, like this presidency, will be anything but normal. 

rid:いなくなって
calculus:論法

トランプのやっていることは全くの素人なので、公約からして、その実行段階でもめちゃくだ。会議においても議題がないときもある。彼の無知さ加減がひどいので、彼にどう対応して良いのか顧問団は戸惑いを隠せない。だから彼の公約は殆ど変えてきている。公私混同もあるが、だんだんこうした無茶は収まっていくだろう。

水曜日。前田さんランチ会。海野塾。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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