失業 救われなかった仕事

The Jobs That Weren't Saved
Sean Gregory / Indianapolis
May 18, 2017



Deep bags sag under Brian Bousum's eyes as he sips whiskey and water in a friend's apartment on a recent Sunday evening. Fifty-one years old, he has spent the past two decades operating screw machines and setting up drill presses at the Rexnord ball-bearing plant on the west side of Indianapolis, a mile from the Carrier factory made famous by President Trump. 

drill press:ボール盤
Carrier factory :Carrier, the HVAC company that since 1979 has been a subsidiary of the larger United Technologies conglomerate, announced several months ago that it was going to close two facilities in Indiana and shift production to a new plant the company is building in Mexico. The move was telegraphed well in advance as part of the company’s obligations to its workforce, but in a practical sense that only made the sting worse. The plants weren't closing because Carrier was losing money hand over fist or because the products they made were obsolete. It was simply cold-hearted medium-term economic planning — it would be cheaper to do it in Mexico. 

On the campaign trail, the Carrier plant closures became a signature talking point for Donald Trump. He argued that it was one concrete example of the overwhelming harm done to American interests by bad trade deals. And as liberal economist Dean Baker writes, it is roughly correct that facilitating the relocation of industrial activity from the US to Mexico was one of the goals of the NAFTA deal. Then this week came some amazing news: Trump, and Vice President-elect Mike Pence, convinced Carrier to stay in Indiana. It was a huge PR coup for Trump and set the stage for a triumphant public event in Indiana on Thursday.

For a guy who didn't go to college, he says, the work is hard to beat: the union offered job security and enough overtime to make up to $75,000 a year, a salary that enabled him to buy his own home with an in-ground pool. Bousum's son joined him at the plant after graduating from high school. 

beat :解決する
job security :雇用の保障
in-ground pool:自家製のプール

By the end of the summer, however, they'll both be out of a job. Rexnord, a $1.9 billion company based in Milwaukee, is closing the Indianapolis plant and moving its operations to Mexico. There, labor costs about $3 an hour, rather than the $25 Rexnord pays its longest-serving union employees in Indiana. The move will put more than 300 Americans out of work. Before that happens, some of the workers here are taking advantage of Rexnord's offer of an extra $4 to $10 an hour to train their Mexican replacements. Others are too pained and too proud. 

The outsourcing of America's factory jobs is nothing new, of course. Since 1999, the nation's manufacturing workforce has dropped 28%, from 17.3 million jobs to 12.4 million, as companies flee to countries with cheaper labor costs. Between 2001 and 2016, the U.S. had a net loss of nearly 54,000 manufacturing businesses. In those that remain, more and more work is being done by robots and advanced computers, which are usually overseen by engineers, programmers and others with at least four-year college degrees. 

"This is a runaway train," says Anthony Carnevale, director of the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. "In the end, technology and global markets improve productivity and benefit all of us. Sadly, it hurts some of us even more." 


Donald Trump promised to make the pain stop, and he owes his election in part to the Midwestern factory workers who believed he would make good on the pledge. "I absolutely got sucked into this message," says Rexnord machinist Gary Canter, 46, who has started delivering pizza for Papa John's three nights a week to sock away extra money before his impending layoff. For Bousum, the rationale was simple: "I voted for Trump based on the fact that he could save our jobs." 

sock away:金を溜め込む

What Donald Trump Got Wrong About Unemployment 
They had reason to hope in early December, just weeks after Trump's victory, when the President-elect announced a deal with nearby heating- and cooling-equipment manufacturer Carrier to keep 1,100 jobs in Indianapolis rather than move them to Mexico (although some 300 of those "saved" jobs were white collar positions that were never slated to move). The next day, Trump turned his ire toward Rexnord, which had already announced its relocation plan. 


"Rexnord of Indiana is moving to Mexico and rather viciously firing all of its 300 workers," the President-elect tweeted. "This is happening all over our country. No more!" More than five months later, Rexnord is pressing ahead with its move. Senator Joe Donnelly, a Democrat from Indiana, who has discussed the closure with the President, cautions that a last-minute reprieve is unlikely. "I don't want to create false hope," Donnelly tells TIME. 

press ahead:困難を排しながらすすめる

"This has been a very difficult decision and we understand its impact on our associates, their families and the Indianapolis community," Rexnord said in a statement. But the company, which netted $68 million in the 2016 fiscal year, noted that "difficult decisions are a part of today's business environment. To be a viable company that contributes to economic growth, we must meet customers' needs with high-quality products at competitive prices." 

viable :成長可能な

If Trump's Carrier deal was a reminder of how the bully pulpit could be used to make the private sector bend, Rexnord's closure shows its limits--and offers a lesson in the challenges of reversing a global economic trend decades in the making. When Trump tweeted about Rexnord again, on May 7, he said the deal to leave the country was made during his predecessor's Administration, and alluded to levying "big" taxes on the Mexico-made goods the company will sell in the U.S. 

in the making:発展過程にある

But that will not revive an entire way of life in the Midwest--or address the host of knotty economic, social and political issues that come with its demise. "The blue collar life is all I've known," Bousum says, drawing from his glass of whiskey. "How the hell am I going to survive?" 

host :多数の

Rexnord Plant at dusk - Indianapolis.JPG
After 58 years of manufacturing bearings at this plant in west Indianapolis, Rexnord is moving its operations to Monterrey, Mexico Inzajeano Latif for TIME 

Every workplace has a third place, where colleagues go to celebrate a promotion, toast a retirement or simply blow off steam. For many at Carrier and Rexnord, that place is Sully's, a sports bar across from the Carrier plant, where long-necks run $1 on special. Between shifts recently, TJ Bray and Kyle Beaman settled into a booth there to unwind. Beaman, 62, worked in quality control at Rexnord, while Bray, 33, started working at Carrier 15 years ago, one day before his high school graduation. 

a third place:3番目の場所
blow off steam:憂さを晴らす

A year ago, Bray thought he would be the one out of a job. Carrier's parent company, United Technologies (UTC), announced plans to close its Indianapolis plant and move its jobs to Monterrey, Mexico. Then Trump got involved. At campaign rallies, the candidate relentlessly hammered the company as a job killer, turning Carrier into a symbol of the devastation he said globalization had wreaked on the nation's workers. 


After Trump was elected, UTC, which has done billions of dollars in business with the Department of Defense, agreed to keep union jobs in Indianapolis in exchange for a tax-incentive package and, presumably, an end to the President's barrage. "I am thankful to the President for what he did," says Bray. But even grateful workers worry that their paychecks may not survive future rounds of automation or cost cutting. Torrie Bennett, a 13-year plant veteran, says the mood at Carrier now "is like being in an ugly relationship. They've said they want to leave you. So you're on guard." 


Trump's intervention reinforced the expectation that he can prevent other companies from moving manufacturing jobs overseas. Asked what he would say to the President if he had the chance, Beaman, who worked his last day at Rexnord in April, is frank: "Can you help us? If you can't help us, be man enough to tell us. A lot of people are banking on this. Donald Trump, can you save us?" 


America's manufacturing roots reach back almost to the dawn of the nation. Samuel Slater, a cotton spinner's apprentice from England, opened what's considered to be America's first textile factory in Pawtucket, R.I., in 1790. Nine children pushed foot treadles to make spindles of yarn. From that tiny operation grew tens of thousands of factories making everything from the cement lining the Erie Canal to the tracks for the transcontinental railroad to the assembly-line Model Ts that ushered in the automobile age. 


By 1943, in the midst of World War II, nearly 4 in 10 of America's nonagricultural workers were employed in manufacturing, producing steel, ships and aircraft for the U.S. war effort; later, such workers produced homes, cars and air conditioners for the ascendant postwar middle class. The jobs were often steady and unionized, the pay good, and the requirements rarely more than a high school diploma and a solid work ethic. 

work ethic:労働倫理・労働意欲

Don Zering, Rexnord’s union rep, at the United Steelworkers Local 1999; he’s worked at the company for 44 years Inzajeano Latif for TIME 


But all that started to die in the early 1980s. Some 19.5 million Americans held manufacturing jobs in 1979, an all-time high. By 1983, the figure was already down to about 16.7 million. By 2024, according to projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 7.1% of Americans will work in manufacturing. 

The reasons are many, but the prime culprits are globalization and automation. In 1991, China accounted for 2.3% of the world's manufacturing exports. In 2001, the country joined the World Trade Organization, and by 2013, China's share of global exports was 18.8%, according to a 2016 study in the Annual Review of Economics. Countries such as Mexico and the Philippines have also increased their exports. Labor in these markets tends to be substantially cheaper than in the U.S., and trade deals like NAFTA make it easy for American companies to produce goods in far-flung locales. 


Man walking in center of road, carrying suitcase and jacket, rear view

To economists, however, America's shrinking manufacturing jobs have less to do with free trade than with robots. The U.S. still produces world-class airplanes, car parts and heavy machinery. Companies just need fewer people to make them. The result, according to the Brookings Institution, is that whereas it took 25 jobs to generate $1 million in manufacturing output in 1980, today it takes just 6.5 jobs. Many of the nation's factories are more productive than ever, and there is growing demand for workers in so-called advanced manufacturing roles. From 2013 to 2015, 132,000 such jobs were added, according to Brookings. 

But these positions increasingly require specialized technical training after high school, with preference often going to those with degrees in science, technology, engineering and math. And the work will be less about fitting pieces together manually than overseeing the robots that do it. Today, according to research from the Boston Consulting Group, robots perform about 10% of manufacturing work around the world. By 2025, they are projected to account for about 25%. "High-skill workers in factories will be managing processes," says David Autor, a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), "rather than showing off manual dexterity." 




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