失業 救われなかった仕事(2)

Autor's research shows that American workers who lost their manufacturing jobs as a result of trade shocks, like competition from Chinese imports, are likely to make less money and collect more disability benefits over the ensuing decade. He predicts a similar fate for the women and men at Rexnord. "Unless they get very lucky, there won't be another employer out there saying, 'Great, I can use a few more ball-bearings guys,'" says Autor. 


Even the rescued Carrier jobs may be vulnerable. In an interview about the deal with CNBC in December, UTC chairman and CEO Greg Hayes said a $16 million investment to automate tasks in the plant would ultimately reduce the workforce. And the company is moving ahead with the closure of another plant in Huntington, Ind., which workers had hoped would be included in the Trump deal. When it shutters by early next year, some 700 people will be laid off. "There's no easy way out of this," says Georgetown's Carnevale, who served on national workplace commissions under Presidents Reagan, Clinton and George W. Bush. 

So far, the Trump Administration's most notable move on trade has been pulling the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the 2016 free-trade agreement among a dozen countries including Australia and Japan. The President also rolled back Obama-era environmental and workplace safety reporting regulations in the name of spurring job growth. In addition, he has appointed a number of business-friendly Cabinet Secretaries. 

Cabinet Secretaries:閣僚

But after pledging to put an end to the nation's economic carnage, Trump has softened some of his most aggressive stances on trade. The President no longer publicly calls China a currency manipulator, a sign that he recognizes the value of the strategic relationship between the world's two largest economies. And after consulting with the leaders of Canada and Mexico, he has agreed not to terminate NAFTA, though he does want to renegotiate the sweeping trade agreement among the three nations that has been in place since 1994. Nor, despite his Rexnord tweet, has Trump backed including the border adjustment tax, a levy on domestic sales and imports favored by House Speaker Paul Ryan, as part of the GOP tax-reform effort. 

levy :課税

Nevertheless, manufacturers see cause for optimism. The U.S. economy has added some 41,000 manufacturing jobs since February, and large firms such as GM and Hyundai have announced new investments in U.S. factories--often with the White House's encouragement. Thanks in part to regulatory changes and proposed tax cuts, the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) says 93% of member companies it surveyed have a positive outlook on the economy--a 20-year high. "What manufacturers see is an agenda from the federal level that is focused on growth," says Jay Timmons, NAM's president and CEO. 

Many economists are far more skeptical. They say the nature of manufacturing work has fundamentally changed and they don't believe tax cuts and protectionism can deliver a Rust Belt revival. "Those are not the policy solutions of the future," says John Van Reenen, a professor of applied economics at MIT. Pointing to the U.S. trade wars of the 1930s that worsened the Great Depression, he says, "Those are the policy failures of the past." 


The trend lines are apparent in a Congressional Research Service report released in early May, which shows that the number of manufacturing workers with graduate degrees increased 35% between 2000 and 2016, while the percentage of workers with just a high school diploma fell by more than a third. "Even if increased manufacturing output leads to additional employment," the report concludes, "it is likely to generate little of the routine production work historically performed by workers with lower education levels."

Kyle Beaman and his wife Phyllis, at home in Indianapolis; Beaman, 62, lost his job in April Inzajeano Latif for TIME 

At Rexnord, the layoffs have started to come in waves, every few weeks bringing news of more colleagues lost. "It's like buying a ticket for the Titanic when you know the ending," says Brian Reed, who has worked at the plant for 24 years. "You get up every day, and it's just miserable." Rexnord is offering severance packages of one week's pay for every year worked at the company. Employees who have worked there at least 15 years and whose age and years of service add up to 75 can start drawing on their pension as soon as they're laid off. Everyone else has to hang on until they turn 65. 

severance :解雇の退職手当

While they wait, the plant has been cleaved by the debate over training their replacements. John Leonard, 56, and Mark Elliott, 52, worked side by side for more than two decades, spending more time together than they did with their families. Elliott accepted the offer. Leonard thought they needed to refuse to help out with training as long-shot leverage to save their gigs. The friends stopped talking for two months as a result. "It's all about the money," Elliott says of his choice. The Mexican workers, he says, "didn't steal those jobs." 

long-shot leverage:望みの薄い投資

For others, it's a matter of putting pride ahead of paying the mortgage. "It's just a moral issue," says Reed. "You're helping the company that ripped the life from under you be successful." As employee John Sullender explains it, "They've knocked us down as far as we can be knocked down. I have enough dignity--I'm not going to do that." 


Between sips of whiskey at his friend's place, Brian Bousum takes the more diplomatic view. He turned down the training offer--but not because he couldn't use the money. Bousum lost that nice house after his divorce, and after breaking up with his girlfriend he has temporarily become a middle-aged couch surfer. He will likely be laid off just months before being able to tap into his pension. 

couch surfer:知り合いの家に泊まり歩く若者

"How can you blame them for getting every damn dime out of the company they can get?" Bousum asks. And though he couldn't bring himself to teach his replacement the skills he's developed over more than 20 years, he knows this isn't the Mexican workers' fault. "It can't be easy for them to be in a place where most people don't care for them," Bousum says. 

What he'll miss most about Rexnord is working alongside his son, taking a moment to pray together every day. There is some government money available for retraining, but Bousum is skeptical about his ability to transition as a middle-aged machinist with a high school diploma. Though for decades, that was good enough. 

After voting twice for Barack Obama, Bousum pulled the lever for Trump. He liked that Trump was at least talking about reviving American manufacturing and restoring the middle class. Now, Bousum is praying for Trump to make good--even if he knows the faith may not be rewarded."I still have hope that something will change, something will happen," Bousum says. "Donald Trump's a millionaire. He doesn't have to worry about hope and faith. But a blue collar guy like me, if you don't have hope and faith, what do you got?" 




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