2017年06月23日

習近平は何を求めているのか。 中国の指導者は母国を世界の歴史上、最も重要で、最大の国になることを決意している。

What Xi Jinping Wants
China’s leader is determined to turn his country into “the biggest player in the history of the world.” Can he do it while avoiding a dangerous collision with America?
Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump.
GRAHAM ALLISON MAY 31, 2017  Atlantic

習近平は何を求めているのか。
中国の指導者は母国を世界の歴史上、最も重要で、最大の国になることを決意している。アメリカとの危険な衝突を避けながら、そうすることが出来るのだろうか?


Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump.


What does China’s President Xi Jinping want? Four years before Donald Trump became president, Xi became the leader of China and announced an epic vision to, in effect, “make China great again”—calling for “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” 

epic:壮大な
in effect:事実上
rejuvenation:若返る

Xi is so convinced he will succeed in this quest that he has blatantly flouted a cardinal rule for political survival: Never state a target objective and a specific date in the same sentence. Within a month of becoming China’s leader in 2012, Xi specified deadlines for meeting each of his “Two Centennial Goals.” First, China will build a “moderately prosperous society” by doubling its 2010 per capita GDP to $10,000 by 2021, when it celebrates the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party. 

convinced:確信している。
blatantly:公然と
flouted:無視する
cardinal:重大な
Centennial:100周年の

Second, it will become a “fully developed, rich, and powerful” nation by the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic in 2049. If China reaches the first goal— which it is on course to do—the IMF estimates that its economy will be 40 percent larger than that of the U.S. (measured in terms of purchasing power parity). If China meets the second target by 2049, its economy will be triple America's. 

What does China’s dramatic transformation mean for the United States and the global balance of power? Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, who before his death in 2015 was the world’s premier China-watcher, had a pointed answer about China’s stunning trajectory over the past 40 years: “The size of China’s displacement of the world balance is such that the world must find a new balance. It is not possible to pretend that this is just another big player. This is the biggest player in the history of the world.” 

stunning:衝撃的な
displacement :移動させること
pretend:ふりをする

Lee’s analysis of what was happening in China, as well as the wider world, made him a sought-after strategic counselor to presidents and prime ministers on every continent—including every American head of state from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama. Lee spent thousands of hours in direct conversations with Chinese presidents, prime ministers, cabinet officers, and rising leaders of his “neighbor to the North.”

sought-after :引く手あまたの
neighbor to the North:ロシアのことか

Every Chinese leader from Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping has called him “mentor,” a term of ultimate respect in Chinese culture. And Lee, who shared his insights with me for a book I co-authored in 2013, had seen up close China’s convulsions from the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution in the 1960s to Deng’s capitalist pivot in the 1980s. Indeed, he had established serious working relationships with many of the people who governed China, including China’s future president, Xi Jinping. 

convulsions:激動

Lee foresaw the 21st century as a “contest for supremacy in Asia.” And as Xi rose to the presidency in 2012, Lee announced to the world that this competition was accelerating. Among all foreign observers, Lee was the first to say of this largely unknown technocrat, “Watch this man.” 

technocrat:技術系出身の官僚

Many politicians and officials in Washington still pretend that China is just another big player. Lee knew Xi well, however, and understood that China’s unbounded aspiration was driven by an indomitable determination to reclaim past greatness. Ask most China scholars whether Xi and his colleagues seriously believe that China can displace the United States as the predominant power in Asia in the foreseeable future. They will duck the question with phrases like “It’s complicated ... on the one hand ... but on the other ...” When I put this question to Lee during a meeting shortly before his death, his eyes widened with incredulity, as if to ask, “Are you kidding?” He answered directly: “Of course. Why not? How could they not aspire to be number one in Asia and in time the world?” 

pretend:あえて~だという
unbounded:無制限の
aspiration:野望
indomitable :不屈の
reclaim:取り戻す
predominant:支配的な
duck:避ける
incredulity:信じようとしないこと

The structural stress between a rising China and a ruling America is already severe. Decreasing the risk of a catastrophic collision neither side wants begins with a clear assessment of Beijing’s ends and means. When he took office, Xi Jinping declared his overarching ambition for China in a single phrase: “The greatest Chinese dream is the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” His “China Dream” combines prosperity and power — equal parts Theodore Roosevelt’s muscular vision of an American century and Franklin Roosevelt’s dynamic New Deal. It captures the intense yearning of a billion Chinese: to be rich, to be powerful, and to be respected. Xi exudes confidence that in his lifetime China can realize all three by sustaining its economic miracle, fostering a patriotic citizenry, and bowing to no other power in world affairs. 

ends and means:目的と手段
muscular:力強い
yearning:あこがれ
exudes:溢れ出る
bowing:屈する

How will Xi “make China great again”? After studying the man, listening to his words, and speaking to those who understand him best, I believe for Xi this means: 

Returning China to the predominance it enjoyed in Asia before the West intruded; Reestablishing control over the territories the Communist Party considers to be “greater China,” including not just Xinjiang and Tibet on the mainland, but Hong Kong and Taiwan; Recovering its historic sphere of influence along its borders and in the adjacent seas so that others give it the deference great nations have always demanded; Commanding the respect of other great powers in the councils of the world.

predominance:影響力が大きいこと
intruded:侵入する
deference:服従
councils:議会・会議

中国が考えているのは中華帝国の再現だという記事。アメリカを追い越すだけでなく、世界無敵の国家として、かっての中国のように、世界に冠たる中国になろうと習近平が考えている。2021年には一人あたりの国民所得を1万ドルにし、2049年にはアメリカの3倍の国力を誇る世界最大の国家にするという夢を掲げている。

こうした中国の思いはかなり現実的で、そうした彼らの大計に対して、日本はどう考えて行かば良いのだろうか。今の一帯一路、AIIBはその第一歩だ。日本は韓国のように、迷走してはいけない。アメリカのように中国の属国になる必要はない。日本は教育に失敗し、前後、精神が惰弱になった。今、日本人のアイデンティティをしっかり、持つための投資をしなくてはならない。来年は明治維新150年だ。その明治維新で失われた日本人の精神をもう一度、取り戻すための次の50年を考える必要がる。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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