2017年07月02日

トランプのパリ協定からの脱退はアメリカにとって何を意味するのか。 カリフォルニアは排気ガス削減を決意してきたが、大統領は化石燃料の消費に拍車をかけようとしている。

What a Trump exit from the Paris deal means for the US
California has resolved to cut emissions but president wants to spur fossil fuel growth
JUNE 2, 2017 by: Pilita Clark, Ed Crooks and Barney Jopson

トランプのパリ協定からの脱退はアメリカにとって何を意味するのか。
カリフォルニアは排気ガス削減を決意してきたが、大統領は化石燃料の消費に拍車をかけようとしている。



Donald Trump has announced that the US will withdraw from the Paris climate agreement that almost every country in the world adopted in December 2015. But there is still widespread disagreement about precisely how exiting the accord would affect the US. 

What does the Paris agreement require the US to do? 
The main obligation for all countries that have joined the Paris agreement is to submit a plan every five years on how they intend to deal with climate change. 

Countries have already come up with their initial plans and the US blueprint that the Obama administration submitted has a goal to cut the country’s climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2025 from what levels were in 2005. 

The accord also requires rich countries to provide financing for developing countries in line with their existing obligations under the parent treaty of the Paris accord, the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. 

There is no strict timeline for when money needs to be handed over and experts say the US has already met this requirement because after it joined the Paris agreement, the Obama administration put $500m into a green climate fund set up to channel funds to poorer nations. 

How are the US emissions targets supposed to be met?
The US plan envisions a range of measures to help meet its Paris goals, including new fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles and measures to curb emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from landfills and the oil and gas industry. 

landfills:ゴミ埋立地

Energy efficiency standards for buildings and appliances were also included. However, most of the cuts were supposed to come from Mr Obama’s clean power plan to lower emissions from power plants burning fossil fuels. The plan was already the subject of legal challenges and Mr Trump has moved to unravel it since he took office in January. 

appliances:家庭用の機器
unravel:計画を反故にする

The policies Mr Obama announced were not expected to amount to enough to meet the 2025 emissions goal in his Paris plan, meaning new measures probably would have had to have been introduced to fill the gap. 



What happens if the US fails to meet its Paris goals?
There is no legal requirement for any country with emissions targets such as those in the US plan to meet its goals. Blueprints submitted for the Paris agreement can also be weakened, though this breaches the spirit of the accord, which encourages any revised plans to be stronger not weaker. 

Republican opponents of the Paris agreement in the US Senate have argued the deal could expose the Trump administration to more legal challenges as it tries to abandon the clean power plan to cut emissions from electricity generation. 

Few lawyers share this view but Scott Pruitt, the head of the Environmental Protection Agency and one of the strongest advocates of quitting the accord, is said to have used warnings about legal risk to help bring Mr Trump round to his position. 

bring around:説得して意見を変えさせる

What would be the financial and economic impact of leaving the Paris accord?
There will be little immediate impact, because the accord has no direct effect in the US. But businesses in renewable energy and other industries involved with curbing emissions worry that the signal sent by the estrangement of the US from the rest of the world on climate strategy will deter investment and hurt sales. 

estrangement:仲違い

One of the biggest risks will be the threat of possible retaliatory tariffs imposed by countries that believe they are being forced to bear an unfair share of the burden of tackling a global problem. 

How could the agreement be renegotiated?
Mr Trump’s suggestion the accord could be renegotiated provoked some bafflement as it is a voluntary deal that includes no enforcement mechanism. “It’s a sham. There is no process for it. He’s laid out no criteria,” said David Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group. 

bafflement:困惑
sham:見せかけ
criteria:基準

Some suggested Mr Trump could tell China and India he would stay in the deal if they increased their emissions cuts while he scaled back the US’s own targets. But Mr Doniger said: “Why would China bargain with the US? It’s bargaining in bad faith by the United States.” 

bargain :交渉する
bad faith:不誠実

Christiana Figueres, the former UN climate official who helped seal the Paris deal, said: “I have a hard time imagining how any country would be willing to let the United States off the hook.” 

seal:決定する
let the United States off the hook:大目に見てやる

トランプがパリ協定を脱退することによって、一体どのような問題があるのかを議論している。さしあたっては特に何も起こらないのだが、他の国が環境対策をしていて、アメリカがそうしないということが許されるのだろうかということだ。オバマが今まで対策してきたものをトランプはやめようとしている。電力産業における排出ガス削減を緩和しようとしている。アメリカにとって対外貿易が不利になってしまうのではないだろうか。

月曜日。朝会がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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