2017年07月10日

選挙の勝利はフランスの大統領に強力な力を与えるだろう。 しかし彼は依然として大衆からの挑戦を威圧しなければならない。

Electoral victory will make France’s president a potent force
But he will still have to face down a challenge from the street
Print edition | Leaders
Jun 17th 2017

選挙の勝利はフランスの大統領に強力な力を与えるだろう。
しかし彼は依然として大衆からの挑戦を威圧しなければならない。




FLORENCE LEHERICY is a nurse, but on Monday she is likely to start a new career as a parliamentary deputy for Calvados, in northern France. Jean-Marie Fievet, a fireman, will join her from a constituency in Deux Sevres in the west. Both are political novices. They belong to La Republique en Marche! (LRM), the movement behind Emmanuel Macron, who last month also won his first ever election—and duly took control of the Elysee Palace. Welcome to the revolution. 

constituency:支援団体・有権者
novices:初心者
duly:まさしく・予定通りに

Across France people have risen up against a political class that failed them. The first round of voting for the legislature, on June 11th, suggests that LRM, which Mr Macron created only 14 months ago, will win at least 400 of its 577 seats. The Socialists will lose 90% of their deputies, including their leader who did not even make the run-off. The Republicans will hang on to more, but they expected to win this election—until a few weeks ago, when LRM’s victory became as inevitable as the blade sliding down the guillotine. 

failed them:彼らを失望させた
run-off:決選投票
hang on to:しがみつく 

Mr Macron offers a fresh answer to the popular discontent that has swept through Western democracies. He promises a new politics that ditches divisions between left and right. He wants to restore dynamism and self-belief to France and, with Germany’s help, to the European Union. And he is being watched from abroad by politicians who, in their own countries, cannot seem to make themselves heard above the din. For his revolution to succeed, he needs to have good ideas and the ability to carry them through. Does he?

self-belief :自信
din:騒々しさにかき消されて

A different kind of rebel
Mr Macron is the right man at the right time. Voters tired of France’s stale politics wanted an outsider. Although he comes from the establishment—he is a graduate of an elite college, an ex-banker and an economy minister under his predecessor, Francois Hollande—Mr Macron has never been a party man. He has designed LRM to act as a break with the past. Half of its candidates are new to politics. Half are women. It has campaigned against corruption. In the outgoing assembly the most common age is 60-70; the average of LRM’s novices is 43. 

revel:謳歌・どんちゃん騒ぎ
stale:新鮮味のない

Whereas most populists cleave to right and left, the Macron revolution is to the centre. He steals policies without prejudice—from the right, a desire to free up markets and businesses to create jobs and wealth; from the left, a belief in the role of government to shape, direct and protect. In the battle between open and closed, Mr Macron is broadly for open in both trade and immigration. In French terms, he is an economic liberal. 

cleave:分裂させる
steals:盗用する
prejudice:偏見を持たずに
protect:保護する

And, crucially, he is an optimist. For decades France has suffered from the morose belief that politics involves struggle, but no real solutions. That sabotages reform: why give up what you have today for something worse tomorrow? Elsewhere in Europe, democracy often seems a joyless transaction in which voters are asked to endorse politicians’ empty promises in exchange for benefit cuts and shoddy public services. 

crucially:決定的なことに
morose:陰気な
sabotages:を妨害する
shoddy:ごまかしの・見掛け倒しの 

Somehow, Mr Macron has convinced the French that progress is possible. He has hit back against populist taunts that free markets are a concession to the bankers and the globalists with refreshing patriotism—whether by crushing the hand of Donald Trump or restoring pomp to the presidency. Against warnings about immigrants and foreign competition, he asserts that both will invigorate France, not enfeeble it. To Eurosceptics who accuse Brussels of sucking the life out of the nation, he insists that, no, the EU magnifies French power. 

convinced:納得させる
taunts:嘲る
concession:譲歩
crushing the hand of:の手を握りつぶす
pomp:高邁な振る舞い
invigorate:を元気づける
enfeeble:弱らせる
sucking the life out of:活力を失わせる

Good ideas are not enough. Mr Macron must also break the habit of 30 years in which France’s reforms have been blocked by the hard left. Success rests on early, visible progress in two areas—employment and relations with Germany. 

French unemployment is double what it is in Germany. For the under 25s, it is stuck above 20%. Firms are reluctant to create permanent jobs because of high social charges and because redundancy and dismissal are expensive and difficult. Mr Macron wants to lower employment taxes and to make workplace bargaining more flexible. Success in the labour market will help him win over Germany, which has lost faith in France’s ability to keep up. So will getting a grip on France’s public spending and its army of bureaucrats. Germany, often standoffish, should give Mr Macron the benefit of the doubt. He is the best, and possibly last, chance to create the impetus for the euro zone to shore up the structure of the single currency. 

edundancy:一時解雇
dismissal :解雇
bargaining:交渉
lost faith in:不信感を抱く
standoffish:よそよそしい
benefit of the doubt:疑わしい点を好意的に解釈させること
possibly last:とっておきの
impetus:推進力
shore up:人がそばに座るために詰める

LRM’s landslide makes this programme more likely to succeed. Mr Macron has been lucky. His chief opponent on the mainstream right, Francois Fillon, was fatally damaged by allegations of corruption. LRM’s victory will be flattered by France’s two-round voting system. A strong EU economy will create jobs (if he is not to jeopardise that, he needs to go easy on the budget cuts). As Theresa May, Britain’s hapless prime minister, can attest, firm control of the assembly will cement his good fortune. However, resistance will move to the streets. 

flattered:引き立たせる
jeopardise:危険にさらす
hapless:不運な
attest:実証する

Already, the ancien regime is warning that the election leaves Mr Macron dangerously powerful, and that the turnout of under 50% has deprived him of a mandate. Militant hard-left unions are threatening to fight his labour-market reforms all the way. They must be faced down. The French president is indeed powerful—but in recent years the problem has been the weakness of the Elysee, not its dominance. The turnout was low, but it has been falling for years and is not much lower than in America or Canada. The unions speak for only the 8% of workers who are their members. That is no mandate. It is what ordinary citizens like Ms Lehericy and Mr Fievet have been elected to sweep away. 

ancien regime:アンシャンレジーム〘フランス革命(1789年)以前のフランスの政治社会制度〙 旧社会[政治]体制.
turnout:投票者総数
deprived:奪う
mandate:信任
faced down:威圧する
sweep away:押し流す

Renaissance man
Plenty could go wrong. Expectations of Mr Macron are sky high. Though LRM has experienced politicians to keep order, it could prove chaotic and amateurish. There will be strikes and marches. As the pain bites, the French public will need to hear again and again why reform will benefit the nation. 

chaotic:混乱した
amateurish:未熟な

These risks are obvious. More remarkable is the revolution that Mr Macron has already achieved. The hopes of France, Europe and centrists everywhere are resting on him.

rest on:に目が向けられる

マクロンが知りしたが、彼は左でも右でもない。革命的な結果だ。彼の党は結党して一年にも満たない。そのため未熟なメンバーも多い。期待はされているが、未経験者が多いので、リスクも大きい。彼は市場開放と労働雇用の柔軟性を求めている。フランスはいままで暗いイメージの政治であったが、彼に期待が集まっている。何だかかっての、日本の民主党をイメージされるが、杞憂であってほしい。

火曜日。スリランカの投資の件で小泉さんが来社。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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