2017年07月15日

世界主義者、民族主義者、愛国主義者(3)

A Nuanced Debate
There are of course deep nuances when it comes to the globalist vs. nationalist debate. The developing world has largely benefited from decades of hyper-connected global trade, with nations gaining wealth by inserting themselves along nodes of a supply chain and ingesting ideas and technology along the way, gradually moving up the value chain. A country's need for open and growing markets, as well as the social risk they face from unrelenting and environmentally stressful industrial growth, has led some to lump leaders such as Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi with Merkel and Macron in a group of globalists defending free trade and investing in green technologies. But Xi and Modi are not cut from the same cloth of their Western counterparts. Rather than preaching universal Enlightenment values, they are using the global stage to pursue their fiercely nationalist agendas at home. 

Nuanced:微妙な違いのある
hyper:極度の
inserting oneself:の中に身を置く・関わる
nodes:結び目
ingesting:摂取する
unrelenting:弱まらない
lump :たくさんの
cut from the same cloth:同類
preaching:主張する
Enlightenment:啓蒙主義運動

Modi's Make in India has the same ring as Trump's America First agenda in trying to drive manufacturing growth at home. Just as populism is fanned in the American rust belt toward a political end, Hindu nationalism is being used in India to centralize Modi's power in a highly decentralized state. There is much talk of China displacing America as the new global governor, but China's heft on the global stage is still directly tied to its national imperatives. China is not offering or defending a political or economic template for the world to emulate; it is extending its global presence through major initiatives such as Belt and Road to create redundancy in its own supply lines. This mitigates the risk of interdiction from more powerful adversaries such as the United States and further spreads the usage of the yuan. It is doing this all while trying to retain absolute control under a communist umbrella and function as a market economy.

heft:持ち上げること 
emulate:張り合う
redundancy:余剰
mitigates:緩和する
interdiction:阻止

Incongruous Thinking 
Even within the Western camp of globalists there exist major contradictions. The new darling leader of the Europeanists, Macron, is using his honeymoon period to try and sell his European counterparts on the idea of opening a European protectionist umbrella over the Continent to shield the union from Chinese encroachment and American unpredictability. But the Germans, the Dutch and others know that "Buy European" can just as easily morph into "Buy French" under an untested French president who is bracing himself for union strikes and street protests. So the Europeans do what they do best at every summit: promise to discuss the matter at a later date while carrying on as though the Franco-German alignment is stronger than ever. 

Incongruous:違和感のある
darling:人気者の
shield:保護する
encroachment:侵害
unpredictability:予測できないこと
morph:変形する

In fact, another wave of wishful thinking is pervading much of Europe. The murky future of the UK under Brexit, the polarizing Trump effect on the Continent, Macron's new mandate and Merkel's likely incumbency are feeding a narrative that the head of the nationalist monster has been cut off and the globalists have prevailed. Europe has bought itself valuable time, but is still prey to the deeper rebalancing taking place in the form of this globalist vs. nationalist battle. 

pervading:浸透する
murky:不明瞭な
polarizing:対立する
incumbency:在職
feeding:を提供する
cut off:関係を断つ 
prevailed:首尾よく行く
prey:犠牲

Even as nationalism may appear treacherous to many globalists, there is something very natural about individuals wanting to look after their own before focusing on others. The human condition is born of tribalistic tendencies. Even the mildest of nationalists will still cringe when they hear Obama speaking alongside Merkel at the Brandenburg gate arguing that "a child on the other side of the border is no less worthy of love and compassion than my own child." In times of prolonged global stress, a love of one's own tends to trump the love of the other. 

treacherous:あてにならない
tribal:同族の
cringe:後ずさりする
trump:に勝る

If today's debate over migrant flows is intense, imagine tomorrow's when robots detached from the human condition must make moral decisions. As New York University professor Regina Rini posits in a thought-provoking article entitled Raising Good Robots, imagine an autonomous car driving your two children to school and three other children suddenly appear on a street where the road is too slick to stop in time. The robocar, removed from biological considerations, makes the decision to swerve and run into a flooded ditch, calculating that it is best to avoid killing three children but puts the two in the car at risk of drowning. How then should society prepare for a time when intelligent machines are expected to make human choices? The globalist will tell you that this ethical dilemma is not reason alone to shun technological progress. The nationalist will tell you that the question itself is a waste of time and that we have to focus on the problems of the present day. 

detached from the human condition:人間の条件から切り離された
posits:だと仮定する
provoking:誘発する
slick:つるつるすべる
swerve:急ハンドルを切る
shun:避ける

The globalist vs. nationalist debate is not a temporary phenomenon and neither side is in a position to declare victory over the other. So long as both sides regard the other as existing in opposing camps locked in a zero-sum game, the disappointments in our political institutions will mount and global angst will persist.
The reality is that there are global responsibilities as much as there are national ones and the two worlds are deeply intertwined. A globalist would be unwise to ignore the nationalist instincts of his own citizenry. A nationalist would be unwise to ignore the global dimensions to problems that impact the citizenry he claims to defend. 

mount:徐々に高まる
angst:苦悩
instincts:本能・衝動

Whether we dwell on the past, entrench ourselves in the present or fixate on the future, the social contract that exists between the state and its citizenry is a constant. Problems will merge across borders and power balances will shift among governments, corporations and individuals. But perhaps those who recognize the pitfalls of the globalist vs. nationalist divide may emerge as the strongest patriots in the end.

dwell:についてあれこれ考える
entrench:身の安全が守られる
fixate:執着している
patriots:愛国者

Reva Goujon is a leading global strategic analyst who keeps her finger on the pulse of emerging trends across the world. Ms. Goujon leads Stratfor's team of analysts and plays an integral role in applying a forward-looking, strategic lens to Stratfor's coverage of global events. She is also a prominent speaker, regularly addressing executives and investors at events across the world in a variety of industries, including energy, finance, commercial real estate and agriculture. 

世界主義者が世界の政治指導者の大勢だが、中国、インド、アメリカは民族主義者だ。こうした双方の対立をどう調整していくのかは容易ではない。中国とインドは世界との関わりを協調してはいるが、目線は海外に向いているが、心は国内に向いている。トランプのアメリカは目線も心も国内にしか目が向いていない。こうした国々との調和を世界がどのように求めていくのかは容易なことではないし、特にアメリカの場合においては協調する一致点が見つかっていない。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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