2017年08月05日

北朝鮮の経済はなぜ成長しているのか。 経済制裁にもかかわらず、金正恩の体制はビジネスが順調だ。

Why the North Korean economy is growing
Despite sanctions, Kim Jong Un’s regime continues to do business
Jun 27th 2017by M.F.

北朝鮮の経済はなぜ成長しているのか。
経済制裁にもかかわらず、金正恩の体制はビジネスが順調だ。



NORTH KOREA has become increasingly antagonistic over the past year. The tragic death on June 19th of Otto Warmbier, an American student who was held by North Korea for over a year and who subsequently fell into a fatal coma, was only the latest provocation (see article). North Korea has carried out missile tests about every two weeks since the start of the year. Western sanctions and promises of action from China have failed to rein in its nuclear programme. Less remarked upon but perhaps more surprising is that sanctions have also not had much effect on the North Korean economy. Though measuring the impoverished country’s economy remains educated guesswork at best, most experts agree that it is probably growing at between 1% and 5% a year. What makes it so resilient?

antagonistic:敵対する
coma:昏睡
provocation:挑発
guesswork:当てずっぽう
resilient:回復力のある

In part this is because not all sanctions are meant to cripple the economy. Many are more narrowly targeted. Asset freezes and travel bans target individuals close to the regime; prohibiting the sale of military supplies is meant to hobble the army. But even those that are broad-based have not always been effective. The UN has attempted to block North Korea’s access to hard currency by capping the amount of coal the state can export, potentially depriving it of more than a quarter of its total export revenue. China, the buyer in 99% of North Korea’s reported coal sales, went further in February, saying it would suspend all imports. Yet North Korean vessels have continued to dock at China’s coal ports. And the North can earn foreign currency in other ways: using foreign agents as a front, the regime sells drugs, weapons and counterfeit goods. Mr Kim’s government also earns more than $1bn a year by forcibly sending labourers abroad. 

cripple:重大な障害を与える
hobble:故意に妨害する
depriving:奪う

A weak enforcement framework limits efforts to crack down on illegal trade. And sanctions could be broader still. Countries or individuals that help North Korea do business have not been subject to “secondary sanctions” that would further isolate the country. Such sanctions were instrumental in persuading Iran to seek a deal over its own nuclear plans in 2015. Yet blacklisted North Korean entities continue to enjoy access to the international banking system through the help of Chinese networks and front companies, says Anthony Ruggiero, a former Treasury official who advised Americans during the last round of negotiations with North Korea. Efforts are being made to plug the holes. Rex Tillerson, America’s secretary of state this month told Congress that the administration was moving closer to placing sanctions on countries that do not comply with UN measures. 

enforcement:取締
subject:影響を受けやすい
instrumental:役立つ
entities :実体
plug:栓をする
comply:従う

Yet the North Korean economy may be able to withstand some increased pressure. Though still officially illegal, private enterprise has grown since reforms encouraged by Mr Kim made it possible for individuals to generate profit. Beyond what they must produce for the state, farmers and factories now have some liberty to find customers of their own. Satellite imagery shows markets growing both in size and number across cities. Small and medium businesses are proliferating, says Rudiger Frank of the University of Vienna, noting that six taxi companies now operate in Pyongyang. Miniso, a home-goods store, became the first foreign chain to open in North Korea, in April. Limited reforms have also allowed the regime to plug part of its dollar deficit: the donju, North Korea’s new class of traders and businessmen, buy themselves protection by making hard-currency “donations” to the government. 

withstand:に耐える
imagery:映像

北朝鮮の経済が衰えない。1〜5%成長している。サテライトから見た映像でもビジネスが盛んな様子が伺える。中国は北朝鮮の石炭の輸入を止めたと言っているが、頻繁に、北朝鮮の石炭を積載をした船が中国の港に行き来している。国連で、北朝鮮の制裁に協力しない国家に対して制裁も検討している。

結局、だめのようだ。資金的な制裁、物の流れによる制裁、その双方ともうまく言っていない。日本の北朝鮮に対する送金の噂も聞いていないが、パチンコの売上はどのように阻止しても、阻止できないだろう。制裁そのものはロシアと違って効果が全く無いようだ。さてどうするか。

日曜日。今日はスケートのBBQ大会だ。ではまた明日。

swingby_blog at 22:21コメント(0) 

コメントする

名前:
URL:
  情報を記憶: 評価:  顔   星
 
 
 
livedoor プロフィール
プロフィール

海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
Swingby 最新イベント情報
海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
講演・メディア出演

最新記事
月別アーカイブ
Recent Comments
記事検索
ご訪問者数
  • 今日:
  • 累計:

   ご訪問ありがとうございます。


社長ブログ ブログランキングへ
メールマガジン登録
最新のセミナー情報を配信します。
登録はこちらのフォームから↓