2017年08月07日

プーチンは強い指導者で、庶民の味方だ。しかし、そのメッセージはだめになってきている。そして、その兆しが水平線の向こうに見えてきている。(2)

Power and Public Relations
In response to this growing resistance, the Kremlin's response has been twofold. First, it got creative with Putin's public image. Perceptions of the Russian president have been skillfully spun in recent weeks — not only for the Russian people, but also to the wider world. Second, the Kremlin has kept a stranglehold on power. 

twofold:2要素からなる
skillfully:巧みに
spun:騙そうとして話を面白く作りあげる
stranglehold:抑圧

To do so, Putin continues to shift Russia's government into a deeply autocratic model, dependent on his personal power. He has created his own guard of about 400,000 ultra-loyalists, who answer directly to him. The State Duma has passed draconian laws that consider dissenters to be terrorists and that heavily regulate social media and communications. Putin has cast down some of the most powerful elites in the Kremlin. And nearly a thousand people were detained in Moscow and St. Petersburg during the recent protests. Russia also isn't backing down from its tense standoff with the West. The Kremlin is still supporting military incursions in Syria and Ukraine, building up its military along its borders, continuing to spread propaganda and disinformation, and spoiling negotiations in hot spots such as North Korea. 

draconian:厳しい
cast:完全に破壊する
backing:降参する
tense:張り詰めた
standoff:膠着状態
incursions:襲撃・侵略
disinformation:偽りの情報
spoiling:台無しにする

Simultaneously, Putin has gone on an unconventional publicity tour, trying to shape a more positive and relatable view of himself, just months before he faces re-election. On May 10, he invited Western reporters to watch him play ice hockey. Before hitting the ice, he gave a sudden and rare interview to CBS News, laughing off accusations of election meddling and involvement in the dismissal of FBI Director James Comey. This impromptu media blip came at the same time Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador to the United States Sergei Kislyak were meeting U.S. President Donald Trump in the White House, despite the flurry of accusations of Russian meddling in the U.S. election. The Russian diplomats were all smiles and warmth. In addition, Russian state media apparently had the only photographer in the room, meaning Russia could shape perceptions of the meeting. 

unconventional:型にはまらない
publicity:広報活動
relatable:関連付けられる
meddling:干渉する
dismissal:解雇
impromptu:即興の
flurry:騒動・突風

Putin's Western media tour continued a few weeks later. On the heels of Russia's largest economic forum in St. Petersburg in early June, he gave a rare television interview to NBC's Megyn Kelly. To many, Putin came off as charming, laying out the reasons why Russia was not the villain it was made out to be in the U.S. press. 

heels:の直後に引き続いて
came off as:するようにみえる
villain:悪者

But his largest stage was a four-part documentary by U.S. director Oliver Stone, showcasing several interviews with Putin over more than three years. "The Putin Interviews," which aired in the United States two weeks ago and in Russia last week, were a rare look behind Putin's veil. Usually, his personal and professional lives are off-limits to media inquiries or views, except for those closely orchestrated by Putin himself. Stone had deep access to Putin, though on the president's terms. Putin deftly ran through the history of the Cold War from Moscow's perspective, slipping in hints of U.S. aggression against the Soviets. When referring to the United States, he used the word "partner," showing Moscow's desire to work with an unwilling Washington. 

terms:在任期間
deftly:巧みに
perspective:視点・観点
aggression:攻撃
hint:気配

The documentary was sprinkled with Putin driving himself, exercising, playing hockey, riding horses, speaking of his grandchildren and pranking Stone — in effect, humanizing a man considered to be among the world's wealthy and corrupt elite. The documentary also took a peek at Putin's offices (one of which belonged to Josef Stalin) and situation room. During the discussions, Putin tried to place Russia in global history, and to show that the country and its people have a necessary role in the world.

sprinkled:散りばめられている
pranking:悪ふざけをする
humanizing:人情深くする・教化する
situation room:最高司令指揮室

History Repeats Itself
By balancing his strong-leader message with a charming and open narrative, Putin aims to prolong his administration and its control over the country. He isn't prepared to give up power anytime soon, and there is no succession plan in sight. But the dueling messages also give the Kremlin wiggle room to shift tactics when needed. And the Kremlin isn't blind to the challenges sprouting up around it: a generational change, a growing protest movement, struggles among the Kremlin elite, a stagnant economy and Western pressure.

dueling:対決する
wiggle room:余地・余裕
sprouting:突如次々と出現する

Russia faced similar problems in 1905 under Czar Nicholas II and during the era of General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev from 1964-1982. Both of those governments held on to power for a decade past their crises, vacillating between crackdowns and concessions. But in both cases, the Kremlin ran out of options, forcing reforms, which broke the system. For now, such challenges are not enough to break Putin's administration, but a storm is brewing. 

vacillating:揺らぐ

プーチンの体制が長く続いたので、金属疲労を起こしている。いろいろな課題が噴出し、デモが起こっているんどえ、プーチンはそれらを弾圧する一方で、市民に媚を売っている。ロシアは歴史の中で、そうした事態に何度も遭遇してきたが、今回の状況を立て直すのは容易なことではないだろう。プーチンは後継者を立てる様子はない。

火曜日。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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