Rather than basing this assessment on the deal's actual terms, the president and his allies have founded their position on the United States' other grievances with Iran, including its weapons testing and support of regional militant groups, as well as a general belief that Tehran should be treated as an axis of evil. But does it make strategic sense to abandon the agreement, when doing so will renew the prospect of a military confrontation in the Persian Gulf and when the United States lacks the European support needed to keep effective sanctions in place against Iran? 

Or will Washington take into account that the Iranian government will not be easily uprooted by force, is serious enough about keeping the nuclear deal in place and already has its hands full in competing with its neighbors for influence? If the United States' goal is to avoid further destabilizing the Middle East while it has so many other foreign policy conundrums to grapple with, then relying on the more subtle tools of covert intelligence to maintain oversight of Iran's nuclear program while playing off existing tensions between Iran and the Middle East's major Sunni powers may be a more effective way to keep Tehran's ambitions in check than single-handedly reigniting a nuclear crisis that could easily consume the United States' military capacity. 

uprooted：根絶する
subtle：巧妙な
covert：密かな
play off :巧みに利用する
single-handedly：独力で
reigniting　；再び火をつける

When It Comes to Russia, Proceed With Caution
Meanwhile, for all the recent drama surrounding the U.S.-Russia relationship, Washington's policy toward Moscow is fairly straightforward. Aware of the internal issues it faces in the coming years, the Kremlin is trying to reach an understanding with the United States and the West at large that recognizes Russia's sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union. For instance, by trying to draw the line at NATO's expansion and persuade the West to lift its sanctions, Moscow hopes to insulate itself from the United States and its allies while it is still powerful enough to do so. 

at large：全体
insulate：絶縁する

To this end, Russia has devoted a considerable amount of energy to inserting itself into conflicts where the United States has a vested interest. There, Moscow believes, it can build a collection of carrots and sticks that it can use to steer Washington toward more fruitful negotiations. The United States isn't pitted against Russia in an ideological war, as it was during the Cold War, and there is certainly room for cooperation between them in some areas of mutual interest. But Russian concessions — even on tactical matters — often come with hefty price tags attached, and selling out European allies on Moscow's doorstep is simply too steep a cost for Washington to pay. 

pitted：戦わせる

Even without the immense complications created by Russia's information operations against the U.S. administration and by Congress' growing compulsion to check the president's influence over Washington's Russia policy, Moscow and Washington will remain fundamentally at odds with each other on several fronts. Nevertheless, the United States will need to stay alert to areas of emerging conflict where Russia will attempt to throw a wrench in Washington's plans — not least of which is North Korea. 

immense：とてつもない
complications：厄介な問題
compulsion：衝動
at odds：争って
throw a wrench：わざと邪魔をする

The Real Fight Is in Asia
When it comes to Venezuela, Iran and Russia, the United States still has options in how it chooses to proceed. Depending on how carefully it weighs the implications of its own actions, it can either exacerbate or temper the threats stemming from each country. North Korea, on the other hand, leaves the United States with dangerously little room to maneuver. 

temper：抑制する

Pyongyang and Washington have passed the point of viable negotiation. North Korea is on track to develop a nuclear deterrent, and as it nears the point of possessing a reliable nuclear weapon and delivery system capable of striking the continental United States, Washington will be compelled to seriously consider military action against it. That decision will fall to the Trump administration, perhaps within the next 18 months. In trying to forgo military action, the United States will be forced to rely on China's and Russia's cooperation in sanctions or covert action intended to destabilize the North Korean government and thwart its nuclear ambitions. 

forgo：我慢する
covert ：密かな
thwart：阻止する

Yet even as Washington pursues this policy out of diplomatic necessity, it knows it is unlikely to bear fruit. Because as much as they dislike the idea of a nuclear North Korea on their doorstep, China and Russia do not want to face the broader repercussions of an unstable Korean Peninsula or open the door to a bigger U.S. military footprint in the region. 

bear fruit：実を結ぶ
repercussions：悪影響
footprint：足跡

And so, the two states will try to get as much as they can out of negotiations with the United States as they try to push Washington toward inaction. Unable to rely on the clout of China and Russia to moderate North Korea's behavior, the United States will resist their demands to curb its military presence in the Asia-Pacific as the North Korean nuclear threat mounts. Washington's need to address the North Korean threat will thus clash with Beijing's own imperative to consolidate its maritime sphere of influence, raising the stakes in an increasingly complicated conflict zone. 

The beat of the war drums in Northeast Asia is deafening compared with the low rumble emanating from Venezuela, Iran and Russia. But it is the confluence of these crises — some of which are more avoidable than others — that risks creating a foreign policy cacophony that even the political squabbles in Washington won't be able to drown out in the months to come. 

deafening：耳をつんざくような
rumble：ゴロゴロ鳴る
emanating：発する
confluence：結合・集合
cacophony：不協和音
squabbles：口論
drown：かき消す

Reva Goujon is a leading global strategic analyst who keeps her finger on the pulse of emerging trends across the world. Ms. Goujon leads Stratfor's team of analysts and plays an integral role in applying a forward-looking, strategic lens to Stratfor's coverage of global events. She is also a prominent speaker, regularly addressing executives and investors at events across the world in a variety of industries, including energy, finance, commercial real estate and agriculture. 

いまアメリカが直面している課題の中で、ベネズエラ、イラン、ロシアとそれから北朝鮮がある。前三者に比べると北朝鮮は喫緊の課題だ。ロシアと中国はアメリカに自制しろと促すが、北朝鮮の過激な行動が果たして収まるのだろうか。その恫喝にアメリカはどう答えるのだろうか。フセイン、カダフィ、アサドに対するアメリカの過去の動きを見ていると攻撃しか思いつかない。それがいつかだろう。トランプは金正恩の出方を待っている。

火曜日。ではまた明日。