Could Silvio Berlusconi stage a comeback?
The octogenarian Italian leader may play kingmaker in next year’s election
Aug 16th 2017by J.H. | ROME

ベルルスコーニは復帰できたのか。
80代のイタリアのリーダーは来年の選挙で黒幕となるのかもしれない。



SILVIO BERLUSCONI’S position in Italian politics has been enfeebled since the ignominious end of his fourth government in 2011. He remains the leader of Forza Italia, the movement that was his springboard into politics 23 years ago. But the party currently polls less than half the 30% it mustered at the height of its popularity in the early 2000s. Mr Berlusconi himself has a criminal record: he was convicted of tax fraud in 2013. And in September, he will be 81 years old. Yet pundits increasingly see the ageing TV-and-property magnate re-emerging as a force in the country’s politics. Could Italian voters really hand power back to a man widely viewed in the rest of Europe as either a buffoon or a crook? 

enfeebled：衰えさせる
ignominious：不名誉な
mustered：集める
magnate：大物
buffoon：道化者
crook：イカサマ師

Because of his conviction, Mr Berlusconi cannot stand for parliament until 2019. He has appealed to the European Court of Human Rights, but the judges may not rule on his case before Italy's next general election, which has to be held by next May. So the chances of Mr Berlusconi returning to parliament, let alone government, are slim. But the law cannot prevent him from campaigning for his party, and in any case the real power in Italy often rests with party leaders who do not necessarily sit in the legislature or the cabinet. The current speculation over Mr Berlusconi centres on the likelihood of his playing the kingmaker—and true arbiter of his country’s fortunes—after the next election. 

slim：可能性は少ない
centres：集中する
arbiter：裁決者

Though it still lags the more radical Northern League, its rival for the right-wing vote, Forza Italia’s showing in the polls has improved. The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) is floundering and the Five Star Movement (M5S) is feeling the effects of a Europe-wide disenchantment with populism. But the real reason for Mr Berlusconi’s renewed strength is the failure of parliament to agree on a new electoral law. After modification by the constitutional court, the existing laws would allot seats to the main parties in almost exact proportion to their share of the vote. A recent projection suggested the M5S, which refuses to join a coalition with any of the mainstream parties, could occupy 185 of the 630 seats in the lower house. In such circumstances, a government of any kind would be hard to form. The most plausible outcome would be a coalition between the PD and Forza Italia, if Mr Berlusconi agreed. 

floundering：問題を多く抱える
disenchantment：幻滅

The prospect of Forza Italia’s founder returning to a position of authority is not the only sign that Italy risks slipping backwards. A fragmented parliament would lead to the sort of unstable, ideologically heterogeneous coalition governments that bedevilled Italian politics until the early 1990s. Some Italians, particularly older ones, might welcome their return: the country’s “revolving-door” governments, in which ministers often left only to reappear in the next administration in a different job, coincided with a period of healthy economic growth. But times have changed, and what the economy needs today is radical, structural reform. It will not get it from coalitions of diverse parties, especially if they are guided behind the scenes by an octogenarian who, despite his claims to be a liberal, never dared introduce liberal reforms when in office. 

heterogeneous：混成の
bedevilled：長い間ひどく苦しめる
coincided：一致する
revolving-door：激しく入れ替わる
dared：する勇気がある・敢えて〜する

ベルルスコーニが復帰しそうだ。彼は汚職で、2019年まで政府の要職にはつけない。しかし彼の党を支配することは出来る。五つ星運動は連立を組まないと言っているので、ベルルスコーニの党が連立の対象になる可能性がある。彼はリベラルだと言っているが改革はしようとしないだろう。いまイタリアは抜本的な構造改革を必要としている。彼には無理だろう。

水曜日。昼はトッパン・フォームズの平林さんと高橋さんとの会食がある。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。