2017年09月07日

彼女が何と言おうとTheresa Mayは次の選挙では戦わないだろう。 現在の彼女の最大の課題は次の候補者を選ぶことだ。

Whatever she may say, Theresa May won’t fight the next election
Her biggest task now is to help choose someone who can
Aug 31st 2017

彼女が何と言おうとTheresa Mayは次の選挙では戦わないだろう。
現在の彼女の最大の課題は次の候補者を選ぶことだ。



ASKED in Japan whether she intends to stand down as leader of the Conservative Party in 2019 Theresa May replied that, on the contrary, she plans to lead her party into the next election, which, according to the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, will occur in 2022. Her answer sent gales of despair through the Conservative Party, gusts of joy through Labour, and blasts of amazement through the commentariat. But what does it actually mean? 

stand down:から身を引く
gales:感情の爆発
gusts:感情の激発
blasts:爆発
amazement:仰天
commentariat:評論家

Not much, is the short answer. She probably answered as she did for the sake of convenience. Two of her predecessors, Tony Blair and David Cameron, created rods for their own backs by setting dates for their departure. Better to make an unrealistic claim (“I hope to go on and on,” Margaret Thatcher said) than to name your sell-by date and give your fellow politicians yet another excuse to manoeuvre for the succession. 

for the sake of convenience:便宜上
make a rod for one's own back:自ら災いを招く
sell-by date:〔食品・製品などの〕販売期限
manoeuvre:策略

But even if she’s so deluded as to believe that she’s the right person to lead the Conservatives into the next election, the choice isn’t hers to make. The decision will be made by her parliamentary party—particularly by the powerful 1922 Committee—and they’re no more likely to choose Mrs May than Bill Cash. Remember that this is a woman who called an election that she didn’t need to call, only to turn a majority government into a minority one; who blew a 27-point lead in the opinion polls; who almost lost to an ageing leftist who has never held high office; and who, as a campaigner, doesn’t seem to be able to explain her case, let alone enthuse a crowd. Mrs May has no more chance of leading the Tories into the next election than Jacob Rees-Mogg. 

deluded:惑わす
call an election :選挙を公示する
blew:フイにする
hold a high office:責任ある高い地位にある[就いている]
enthuse:夢中にさせる

So what is going on here? Mrs May is planning for a big push to reassert her power as prime minister. This doesn’t mean staying on to fight the next general election. But it does mean making the best of her position as an interim prime minister. Over the past few months the Tory party has been so convulsed by internal leadership struggles—by briefings and counter-briefings, rhetorical acid-attacks and counter-attacks—that it has sometimes seemed incapable of governing. 

interim:暫定的な
convulsed:激しく揺れる
briefings:事前説明
acid-attacks:辛辣な攻撃

Weak though she is, Mrs May has a chance of reasserting some sort of order. The party is beginning to realise that it may be doing itself irreparable harm. The British electorate doesn’t elect or re-elect divided parties. The Tories are also beginning to revisit the reason why they chose Mrs May in the first place: she may not be perfect, but she’s better than the alternatives. The prime minister conveniently straddles the biggest divide in the party, over Brexit. She’s tough on crime but relatively liberal on social values. She may not have many friends but she doesn’t have many enemies either. 

irreparable:修復不可能な
conveniently:都合よく
straddles:またがる
crime:馬鹿げた行為

At the moment the party seems to be channelling most of its energies into destroying Mrs May’s potential rivals. The past week has seen a tsunami of articles denouncing Boris Johnson, the grassroots’ favourite, as an exploded volcano, a fatuous fool and an incompetent pipsqueak, who is not taken seriously either by the Trump White House or the chancelleries of Europe. Mrs May’s chances of survival probably depend less on elevating her own status, which will be almost impossible after the debacle of the election, but by destroying all potential rivals, which is wonderful for journalists, eager for acid-laced copy, but terrible for the future of the Conservative Party. 

channelling:注ぐ
fatuous:愚かな
pipsqueak:つまらないやつ
chancelleries:首相
elevating:持ち上げる
acid-laced copy:辛辣な意見を織り込んだ広告文

The other reason why Mrs May has a good chance of surviving for the time being is that the party has more or less decided that it needs to skip a generation. None of the current lot is up to snuff for various reasons. But the middle ranks of the party are full of highly talented people from a wide variety of social and ethnic backgrounds: 

lot:連中
up to snuff:抜け目がない

Rishi Sunak, MP for Richmond, Yorkshire, and a successful entrepreneur who also happens to be married to the daughter of one of the richest men in India; Kwasi Kwarteng, MP for Spelthorne and a talented historian; Rory Stewart, MP for Penrith and the Border, and a man who has already enjoyed successful careers in the army, intelligence services and academia; and Ruth Davidson, head of the Scottish Tory party and the great hope in the north. One sign of things to come is that Tom Tugendhat, a former army officer and MP for Tonbridge and Mailing, who has only been an MP since 2015, beat the incumbent, Crispin Blunt, for the chairmanship of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee. 

The Tory party is thus in a more peculiar position than most people imagine: it not only has a caretaker prime minister but also a collection of caretaker cabinet members (such as Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Liam Fox) who are only being held in place by factional hatred. At the same time it also has a large cohort of able younger people who are knocking on the door of power. 

caretaker :暫定の
factional hatred:党派間の憎しみ
cohort:集団

The biggest danger for Mrs May is that she will stick with her cabinet of caretakers rather than give younger talent its due. Getting rid of Mr Johnson, for example, and replacing him with a younger talent would undoubtedly be a good thing for Britain’s foreign policy, but it would disturb the balance of power in the cabinet and give Mr Johnson a licence to make mischief or even bring down the government. 

make míschief:(故意に)【人の】仲を悪くさせる, ≪…の間を≫ 不和にする
bring down:転覆させる

Keeping these caretakers in place will not only deprive the government of new talent. It will also add more heat to the pressure-cooker of the Tory party. For the past few months Britain has been entertained (and appalled) by in-fighting in the cabinet. In the longer term the danger is that talented younger Tories will no longer be willing to put up with being held back by an older generation that, for the most part, has failed to prove itself worthy of office, let alone indispensable for Britain’s future. 

deprive:をうばう
pressure-cooker:圧力鍋
appalled:ショックを受けて
put up with:我慢する
held back:制御される
indispensable:不可欠な

Mrs May’s biggest test in the short-term is to reassert her power in order to stop her party from tearing itself apart. Her biggest test in the long-term is to prepare the ground for the next generation of leaders—that is, by bringing fresh talent into the upper ranks of government and helping the party to choose somebody who can credibly lead the party into the next election. 

テレサメイは先般の選挙で負けてから、彼女の先はない。彼女は次の首相が誰かを決める支援をするべきで、現在のトーリー党の分裂を収めるべきだ。ボリス・ジョンソンのような人物は排除するべきで、年寄りではなく、若い内閣を作らなければならない。内閣を若手に一新するべきだ。

金曜日。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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