2017年09月21日

Nicolas Maduroはベネズエラを凶漢の国家にしようとしている。 独裁主義にしようとする不人気の体制の試みは悲惨な結果に終わるだろう。(3)

Murmuring in the ranks
An “undercurrent of muttering” among junior officers is checked by a network of political commissars and snoops installed by Chavez, says Jose Machillanda, of Simon Bolivar University in Caracas. At the top, several thousand Cuban security personnel guard Mr Maduro and the 30-40 leaders who form the regime’s core. 

Murmuring:影で愚痴をこぼす
undercurrent:底流
muttering:不平
commissars:共産党の政治委員
snoops:詮索好きな人

But the assembly has tested the army’s loyalty to Mr Maduro. He twice reshuffled senior ranks in the past two months. Caracas is alive with rumours of an impending pronunciamento, in which the army withdraws its support for the regime.

impending:差し迫った
pronunciamento:意思の公開宣言(政党や政府によって発せられる)

Another acute threat to Mr Maduro is the economy. The rot has spread to the oil industry, Venezuela’s mainstay. According to OPEC, since 2015 the country’s oil output has fallen by 400,000 barrels per day (or around 17%). This is the long-term price of Chavez’s decision to turn PDVSA, the once efficient state oil company, into an arm of the welfare state. 

rot:悪化
mainstay:頼みの綱

Foreign-exchange reserves hover around $10bn, according to the Central Bank. Economists expect the government to make $3.5bn in debt payments due in the autumn, but it will struggle to find the $8.5bn it needs to avoid default next year. China, a big paymaster, is reluctant to lend more. Russia may be Mr Maduro’s best hope, but it worries about getting entangled in possible American sanctions against Venezuela. 

hover:ウロウロする
paymaster:資金提供者
entangled:からまる

The fourth problem Mr Maduro faces is that the region has become less friendly to him. Chavez enjoyed the solidarity of other left-wing governments in Latin America. Many are no longer there, or have distanced themselves. Venezuela has been suspended from Mercosur, a trade group; it could be expelled if the assembly goes ahead, says Argentina’s foreign minister. The regime showed that it cares about its standing in the region by the big diplomatic effort it made in June to prevent its suspension from the Organisation of American States. 

Organization of American States:米州機構(は、1948年に調印されたボゴタ憲章(米州機構憲章)に基づいて、1951年に発足した国際機関である。本部はアメリカ合衆国のワシントンD.C.。
南北アメリカの国々の平和と安全保障・紛争の平和解決や加盟諸国の相互躍進を謳う。
1970年代以降、最重要の問題を扱う場ではなくなった。



Many in Caracas assumed that Mr Maduro intended the assembly as a bargaining chip, to be withdrawn in return for concessions by the opposition. If so, he may be trapped by the forces of radicalisation he has unleashed. Diosdado Cabello, a retired army officer who is his chief rival within the regime, appears to see the assembly as his route to power. Back down now, and Mr Maduro risks losing face among his hard-core supporters. 

bargaining chip:交渉の切り札; 取引材料
radicalisation:過激化
Back down:降参する, 【主張要求約束などを】(強い反対に遭って)取り消す[下げる]

Venezuela thus stands at a junction. One road involves a negotiation that might either fix a calendar for a free and fair election, or that might see Mr Maduro and other regime leaders depart. The opposition is mistrustful after talks brokered by the Vatican and Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, a former Spanish prime minister, broke down last year when it quickly became clear that the government was not prepared to restore constitutional rule. Mr Zapatero was a conduit for a move that saw Mr Lopez transferred from prison to house arrest this month. He is in Caracas again this week. 

junction:分岐地点
brokered:仲介する
conduit:仲介人

The city hums with rumours of a new mediation effort led by a shifting kaleidoscope of foreign governments. But conditions do not yet seem ripe. “The government sees the cost of leaving power as very high, that they would be destroyed and persecuted,” reckons Luis Vicente Leon of Datanalisis. The opposition is suspicious, too. “To return to political negotiations we have to have real signs that the government is prepared to change,” observes Freddy Guevara, the deputy leader of Mr Lopez’s party. 

hums:ざわざわする
mediation:調停
shifting:流動的な
kaleidoscope:万華鏡
ripe:熟した
persecuted:迫害される



Can anyone stop Mr Maduro?
That probably requires a military pronunciamento. But the army “looks at the opposition and doesn’t see any guarantees that they would be able to run the country”, says a foreign diplomat. The MUD has worked well as an electoral coalition, and its plebiscite was impressive. It has published a programme for a government of national unity. But, crucially, it lacks an agreed leader with a mandate to negotiate. “The opposition is stuck together with chewing gum,” says Mr Leon.

plebiscite:国民投票
impressive:深い印象を与える
crucially:極めて重大に
stuck:行き詰まって

Anomie and anarchy
Barring a negotiation, the other route looks bleak. There is a growing sense of anomie and anarchy. On the opposition side, there is desperation in the self-barricading of its own neighbourhoods, an action which does little to hurt the government. Social media have been vital in undermining the regime’s control of information. But they also spread rumours and undermine moderation. Middle-class caraquenos are reading books on non-violent resistance. But on the streets many protesters express mistrust for the MUD. The “Resistance” is well-organised and trained. It would not be hard for it to take up arms.

Anomie:アノミー〘社会[道徳]的規範の欠如した状態〙
Barring:を除いては
bleak:良くなる見込みのない
undermining:弱体化させる
caraquenos:カラカスの人

For its part, the chavista block is splintering. The National Guard now raids properties in chavista areas at night, because they are being fired on by disgruntled residents. “There’s a growing attitude of ‘don’t mess with me’,” says Mr Machillanda.

splintering:分裂した
raids:手入れする
disgruntled:不満な
mess:トラブルを起こす 

Mr Maduro and his core of civilian leftists admire Cuba but they do not command a disciplined revolutionary state, capable of imposing its will across Venezuela’s vast territory. The 100 or so dead in the protests are fewer than are killed each weekend in lawless poor neighbourhoods. The “Bolivarian revolution” has created a state run by rival mafias and undermined from within by corruption. 

command:に値する
disciplined :規律のある
impose one's will on:(人)の意志を押し付ける
from within:内部から

“They could try to Cubanise the country,” says Mr Capriles. “But whether Venezuelans accept that is another matter.” Given the intensity of Venezuela’s confrontation, it has suffered remarkably little political violence. Sadly, that may now change. If Mr Maduro shuts down all hope of political change, it may take many more deaths to break the deadlock. 

intensity:激しさ
confrontation:対立

マドゥロはどう転んで今の状態から好転はしないだろう。軍も見放そうという動きもある。キューバも当てに出来ない。米州機構もメルコスールからも愛想を尽かされている。国民からも期待されていない。どうも、残された人かはなさそうだ。デフォルトも間近に考えられる状況だ。

木曜日。今日はこれまで。

swingby_blog at 09:08コメント(0) 

コメントする

名前:
URL:
  情報を記憶: 評価:  顔   星
 
 
 
livedoor プロフィール
プロフィール

海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
Swingby 最新イベント情報
海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
講演・メディア出演

最新記事
月別アーカイブ
Recent Comments
記事検索
ご訪問者数
  • 今日:
  • 累計:

   ご訪問ありがとうございます。


社長ブログ ブログランキングへ
メールマガジン登録
最新のセミナー情報を配信します。
登録はこちらのフォームから↓