2017年11月25日

アフリカの人たちはより健康で、より豊かになっている。 、、、しかし彼らは未だに、戦争と暴力によって抑えられている。

Africans are getting healthier and wealthier...
...but they are still held back by war and violence
Nov 20th 2017 | LAGOS

アフリカの人たちはより健康で、より豊かになっている。
、、、しかし彼らは未だに、戦争と暴力によって抑えられている。



IN MANY ways the story of Africa in the 21st century is one of success. Great strides have been made tackling diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria. A baby born in Africa today is less likely to die young, and more likely to go to school than one born in 2000. Life expectancy at birth increased by nearly ten years, to 60, between 2000 and 2015. But many Africans also feel less secure than they did a decade ago. Civil wars and social unrest have proliferated, according to an index of how Africa’s leaders are performing.



The Ibrahim Index of Governance, produced by the foundation of Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese-British telecoms-billionaire-turned-philanthropist, has been trying to quantify how well countries are run since 2007. It is an ambitious effort involving 100 indicators of such things as political participation, respect for human rights and sound economic management. The latest data, released on November 20th, show a worrying divergence. Of the 26 indicators related to health, welfare and education, 21 have improved over the past decade. But 18 out of the 26 measures of safety, stability and the rule of law have deteriorated.

philanthropist:博愛主義者, 博愛家; 慈善家.

Civil wars in several countries, such as Libya, South Sudan and the Central African Republic, drag down the numbers. At the other end of the spectrum, improvements in health, education and social services were led by Rwanda, Ethiopia and Togo. In 28 countries development indicators improved, while security indicators deteriorated.

Overall, instability on the continent has increased. But optimists will note that the trend has slowed in the past five years. Meanwhile, most of Africa’s children are healthier and better educated than ever. That is undoubtedly cause for cheer.

アフリカの環境が良くなってきている。悪いところもあるが、よくなってきている所のほうが多い。課題はどのようにして貧困を減らすかだろう。これが出来ないと、生活が出来ないから、子供が学校にもいけないし、若者がテロに走る。世界銀行がガーナの教育のために投資したが、そうしたことが今このアフリカには必要だ。

Nov 16, 2017 | 17:19 GMT stratfor
In Lebanon, Saudi Arabia Attempts the Impossible

レバノンで、サウジアラビアは不可能なことを試みている。


Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman(FAYEZ NURELDINE/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights
In the regional competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Lebanon is the most recent proxy battleground. Iran's political and security connections in Lebanon mean Saudi Arabia will have a hard time countering its influence there. Saudi Arabia can wield some financial tools to try to pressure Lebanon, but Iran has the means to cushion some of the impact.

mean:をさして言う  I mean you. Stand up! 君のことを言っているんだ, 立ちなさい.:

Saudi Arabia has recently undertaken the mammoth task of rewriting its domestic economic rulebook, but the country's external ambitions are equally as bold. The government in Riyadh has long seen itself as a representative of broader Sunni and Arab interests in the Middle East. Lately, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has amped up attempts to challenge Iran's regional influence, hoping to reassert control over areas that he views as Saudi Arabia's rightful domain.

amped:興奮して, わくわくして; 落ち着かない.

This strategy has manifested on proxy battlegrounds in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and, most recently, in Lebanon. But despite Saudi Arabia's efforts, the kingdom lacks the political and security inroads of its competitor, and it is far more likely to fall flat in Lebanon than it is to successfully curb Iran's influence.

inroads:進出, 参入, 食い込み.
fall flat:完全に失敗する

Riyadh has long been concerned about Tehran's links with Lebanese Shiite political party and militant group Hezbollah, which it sees as a tool for Iran to exert power throughout the region. As early as 1990, Saudi Arabia was exploring ways to limit Hezbollah's (and in turn, Iran's) influence in Lebanon, and that concern was subtle but ever-present when Saudi Arabia mediated the Taif agreement that ended the Lebanese civil war.

subtle:微妙な in a very subtle way 非常に巧妙なやり方で
ever present with :に付きまとって離れない
mediated:(当事者と話をして)〈合意・解決策など〉を成立させる, 得る.
Taif agreement:(also "National Reconciliation Accord," or "Document of National Accord") was an agreement reached to provide "the basis for the ending of the civil war and the return to political normalcy in Lebanon." Negotiated in Taif, Saudi Arabia, it was designed to end the decades-long Lebanese civil war, politically accommodate the demographic shift to a Muslim majority, reassert Lebanese authority in South Lebanon (then occupied by Israel), though the agreement set a time frame for Syrian withdrawal and stipulated (規定する) that the Syrians withdraw in two years. It was signed on October 22, 1989 and ratified on November 4, 1989.
Taif:ターイフ、サウジアラビア西部、マッカ州の都市。

More recently, Saudi Arabia has become uneasy about Iran's increasing role in the Syrian conflict — too close to Lebanon for Riyadh's comfort — and especially Hezbollah's potential to serve as Iran's proxy in Yemen, training and supporting Houthi rebels. A Houthi missile strike over Riyadh on Nov. 5 seemed to suggest to Saudi Arabia that Hezbollah was aiding its enemies in Yemen. And since Riyadh lacks ground troops in Yemen, limiting its ability to respond directly at the launch site, the kingdom has addressed the threat with blockade measures and airstrikes — as well as by putting heavy pressure on Lebanon.

The Pitfalls of Political Meddling
In a televised statement from Riyadh in early November, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri unexpectedly announced his resignation, suggesting that the kingdom is attempting to orchestrate a transition to a Lebanese government that it can better control. After all, when al-Hariri regained his position as prime minister in December 2016, he espoused a desire to compromise with Hezbollah allies.

pitfall;隠れた[気づかない]危険, わな; 誘惑.
meddle in the internal affairs of another country:ほかの国の内政に干渉する.
espoused:支持する

Given that many Lebanese citizens simply want a functioning government, there was widespread support for this stance, which Saudi Arabia is eager to limit. Saudi Arabia seems to be controlling al-Hariri's movements as it searches for a replacement for the post it finds suitable; many believe Saad's brother Bahaa, whom Riyadh believes to be more pliant and willing to take the harder line against Hezbollah that Saudi Arabia craves, is the current top choice.

pliant:pliable 従順な
craves:crave success [attention] 成功し[注目され]たくてたまらない.

But it's uncertain whether Bahaa would be able to pursue any actual policy changes, or even whether the fractured Sunni and Christian communities within Lebanon would accept him. Politically, Hezbollah is deeply entrenched in Lebanon, while the Saudi-backed March 14 Alliance has grown more and more anemic over time.

entrenched:an entrenched attitude [tradition] 確固たる態度[確立された伝統].
anemic:弱々しい

The coalition has been divided by disagreements among its Sunni, Druze and Christian member parties, and it was further weakened when the Progressive Socialist Party left in 2011 and the National Liberal Party followed in 2016. Hezbollah, meanwhile, does not rely just on its own party in parliament, the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc. It also maintains a wide range of allies including the Free Patriotic Movement, the Amal Movement and the Marada Movement.

This strategy will ultimately harm Riyadh's own allies in the country, hampering their ability to make political or economic progress ...
With its involvement in Lebanese politics, Saudi Arabia seems to be throwing a wrench into the system in an attempt to halt any progress that might be helpful to Hezbollah and its allies. But it is not actually proposing an alternative. This strategy will ultimately harm Riyadh's own allies in the country, hampering their ability to make political or economic progress on issues such as oil and gas contracts and much-needed labor market, tax and subsidy reforms.

wrench:throw a (monkey) wrench into:を(わざと)じゃまする, 台なしにする.

A Lack of Proxy Power
Saudi Arabia will also struggle to marshal resistance to Hezbollah as it lacks allied rebel groups — essentially proxy fighters — on the ground to challenge the organization. With Iran's financial and military support, the group has a sizeable militia network in Lebanon boasting transnational capabilities. And Saudi Arabia, for its part, has a poor track record of challenging Iranian-backed militia forces, including in Lebanon. A 2008 conflict within Lebanon that emerged in the aftermath of the 2005 Cedar Revolution pitted Saudi-supported Future Movement fighters against Hezbollah and allied militiamen.

marshal:marshal public support for the war effort 戦争に対する国民の支持を集める
pitted:pit reason against instinct 理性と本能を競わせる.
Cedar Revolution: 杉の革命 レバノン(特に、ベイルート)を中心に、2005年2月14日のラフィーク・ハリーリー前首相暗殺によって発生した一連のデモ活動、市民活動のこととして使われている。

The Future Movement ended up ceding territory to the victorious Hezbollah militiamen in a number of strategically significant Beirut neighborhoods. And since 2008, Hezbollah has only become more of an entrenched security presence within Lebanon. Hezbollah fighters have played prominent roles within Syria over the last several years, deepening their military capability to challenge potential Saudi proxies, while Saudi Arabia lacks the allies it needs to pose a serious threat.

ceding:〈権利・領土など〉を譲渡[割譲]する
pose:pose no threat to humans 人間に何の脅威も与えない.

When Money Isn't Enough
Saudi Arabia may find some success pressuring Hezbollah in the economic realm, where it has leverage in Lebanon. An estimated 200,000 to 500,000 Lebanese work in the kingdom, providing remittances estimated at more than $8 billion that supply hard cash to Lebanon's banking sector. If Riyadh chooses to limit those remittances, it could deliver a major blow to the Lebanese economy. Similarly, Saudi Arabia has the ability to damage Lebanon's crucial tourism industry, which relies heavily on wealthy Arab visitors from Gulf Cooperation Council states.

Already, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have issued warnings to their citizens not to travel to Lebanon. Still, even this effort would only be somewhat effective. Lebanon, whose 25-year civil war ended in 1990, already has weathered worse financial damage than any that Saudi Arabia could inflict. Furthermore, the war left the Lebanese weary of another round of civil conflict, especially one driven by outside actors. Finally, Iran is well-equipped to continue financially supporting its Lebanese allies, mitigating the effectiveness of the kingdom's actions.

inflict:the damage inflicted by toxic chemicals 有害な化学物質がもたらした損害.
weary:I was becoming weary of the monotonous life. 私は単調な生活にうんざりし始めていた.

After stumbling through unrealistic, deeply challenging foreign policy forays in Qatar and Yemen, Saudi Arabia does not seem poised to succeed in strategically influencing Lebanon — no matter how much ambition it may have. And as it attempts to stir up fresh dissent against Hezbollah, Riyadh will struggle to introduce meaningful change rather than just chaos.

stumbling:stumble into the bathroom よろよろとトイレに入る.
forays:侵略  make a first foray into the U.S. market アメリカ市場への最初の進出をする.
poised: 用意[覚悟]ができている ; 今にも動き出す姿勢でいる.
stir:stir emotions [interest] 感情[興味]をかき立てる.

サウジアラビアのサルマン皇太子がレバノンのハリリ首相を辞任させたが、それはヒズボラに対してどう抑えるかの政策の一手段だったが、サウジがイランが背後にあるヒズボラを抑えることは出来ない。カタールやイエメンにおける侵略を見ていると、今回のヒズボラに対しての姿勢も間違えている。レバノンを混乱に陥れてもサウジには何のメリットもない。それをサルマンはわかっているのだろうか。

日曜日。ではまた明日。






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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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海野塾のイベントはFacebookのTeamSwingbyを参照ください。 またスウィングバイは以下のところに引っ越しました。 スウィングバイ株式会社 〒108-0023 東京都港区芝浦4丁目2−22東京ベイビュウ803号 Tel: 080-9558-4352 Fax: 03-3452-6690 E-mail: clyde.unno@swingby.jp Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/clyde.unno 海野塾: https://www.facebook.com TeamSwingby
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