2017年09月24日

新たな和平協定はリビアにおける紛争を終焉できるのか。 先週2人の指導者の会合は予期しない休戦をもたらしたが、この国家の大部分は彼らの管理外だ。

Will the new peace deal end the conflict in Libya?
A meeting between two leaders last week brought an unexpected ceasefire, but much of the country remains beyond their control
Jul 31st 2017by R.M. | CAIRO

新たな和平協定はリビアにおける紛争を終焉できるのか。
先週2人の指導者の会合は予期しない休戦をもたらしたが、この国家の大部分は彼らの管理外だ。



IT LONG seemed as if Khalifa Haftar would not stop fighting until the forces under his command controlled all of Libya. He and his self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) have largely ignored the UN’s efforts to end the conflict there. Nevertheless, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, invited General Haftar (pictured, left) to Paris on July 25th to talk peace with Fayez al-Serraj (pictured, right), a rival who leads the UN-backed government based in Tripoli, the capital. Expectations were low, but the two leaders exceeded them, agreeing to a ceasefire and to hold elections as soon as possible. “The cause of peace has made great progress,” declared Mr Macron. Will the deal at last end the conflict in Libya? 

self-styled:自称の
exceeded :を超える

Libya has looked unstable ever since the revolution that toppled Muammar Qaddafi’s regime in 2011. A disputed election in 2014 tipped the country into civil war. At first the conflict was between rival governments in the east and the west. Now there are so many groups fighting that it is difficult to sort out the sides. The UN tried to reunite the country by establishing the administration led by Mr Serraj, called the “government of national accord” (GNA), after an agreement between politicians on both sides in 2015. But the pact did not have widespread support and Mr Serraj, despite the nominal backing of powerful militias, has struggled to establish the GNA’s authority. General Haftar continues to support the government in the east, while the old government in the west still has the backing of some militias. 



So fractured is Libya that the deal between Mr Serraj and General Haftar is unlikely to end the conflict. The ceasefire only covers the forces aligned with each leader. As it is, they rarely face off. Both sides, though, are free to keep fighting terrorists. According to General Haftar, that includes nearly all of his opponents, so his forces are still fighting Islamists and rebel groups in cities such as Benghazi. Militias aligned with the GNA, meanwhile, are bracing for a counterattack by the jihadists of Islamic State (IS), whom they kicked out of Sirte last year. The country’s powerful militias were left out of the talks in Paris, so the deal has thus far failed to win their support. Many despise General Haftar and even those who support Mr Serraj consider him weak. But someone must convince them to lay down their arms if the deal is to succeed. Even were the fighting to stop, other agreements would be needed before elections could be held. 

face off:対決する
despise:ひどく嫌う

If nothing else, the deal-making has lent legitimacy to General Haftar, who has tightened his grip on the east. In the past year, with support from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, his forces have captured most of Benghazi; territory around Sebha and Jufra; and the crucial ports of Sidra and Ras Lanuf, allowing oil exports to increase. The general’s anti-Islamist and authoritarian style is suddenly in vogue. Russia has embraced him and an increasing number of European officials, concerned about migrants and terrorists streaming out of Libya, see him as an ally. But they risk empowering a would-be strongman. General Haftar has quashed dissent in the areas under his control. His forces are accused of abuses, such as killing prisoners. “I do not care about elections,” he told France24 Arabic, a television network, after the deal. “I care about the future of Libya as a stable and civil state.” 

vogue:人気があって
quashed:制圧する

リビアは2人のリーダーであるベンガジを中心に制圧しているGeneral Haftarと国連が認めている西側のFayez al-Serrajが休戦することになった。とは言ってもリビアは他にも数多くの軍隊があって、この2人だけでは紛争は解決できない。ISISもいる。選挙をしてもいいと言っているが果たしてどうなるのだろうか。マクロンが間に入っている。

日曜日。母親に見舞いに行く予定だが、風邪の治りがイマイチなので、止める事にした。ではまた明日。


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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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