2017年09月25日

コルビンの風船はすぐには破裂しないかもしれないと思う理由がいくつかある。

Peak Corbyn
There are reasons to think the Corbyn bubble may not burst soon
Aug 10th 2017

コルビンの風船はすぐには破裂しないかもしれないと思う理由がいくつかある。



JEREMY CORBYN may have lost the general election but his cult grows, regardless. There are Corbyn T-shirts all over the place, as well as more exotic items of clothing: David Cameron, Britain’s former prime minister, was photographed at a pop festival, drink in one hand, cigarette in the other, half-embracing a female reveller who was wearing a cape with Corbyn’s name on the back, encircled by a heart. A mural of his face can be found in Islington. Siobhan Freegard, the founder of channelmum.com, reports that “Corbyn is the stand-out naming trend this year”, with 50% of parents saying they would be willing to consider naming their child after the MP for Islington North. 

cult:人気
exotic:風変わりでおもしろい
reveller:お祭り騒ぎ[どんちゃん騒ぎ]をする人
mural:壁画
stand-out:ずば抜けた[目立つ](人)
Naomi was named after a famous actress.:ナオミはさる有名女優の名前を取って名付けられた.

The great question of British politics is whether this is too much of a good thing. Is this adulation a bubble that will burst, leaving trustafarians with embarrassing bits of clothing and children with awkward names? Or is it the British equivalent of the posters and T-shirts that proliferated before Barack Obama’s first victory? There are good psephological reasons for thinking that Labour’s 40% score in June might be a high-water mark. The Conservative campaign was about as bad as you can get, a presidential effort with a nothing at its heart. Lots of people voted for Mr Corbyn precisely because they did not think he could win. They wanted to curtail Theresa May’s “Brexit means Brexit” triumphalism, not install a far-leftist in Downing Street. 

adulation:お世辞
trustafarians:⦅英俗⦆貧しい(家の出の)ふりをする裕福な若者
awkward:気まずい
names:有名人・名の通った
proliferated:急増する
psephological:選挙学の
high-water mark:絶頂
at its heart:本質的には、本来
 precisely because …:まさに…が理由で
curtail:抑制する

There are also signs that Mr Corbyn’s Teflon coating is wearing thin. On August 7th he returned from a cycling holiday in Croatia to face a barrage of questions about Venezuela. Why is a country that he once praised as a land of milk and honey turning into a giant gulag? Why had he said nothing while the regime beat and killed dissenters? Mr Corbyn eventually broke his silence only to say he condemned violence on “all sides”, seemingly oblivious to his own recent tweet that “If you are neutral in situations of injustice you have chosen the side of the oppressor.” 

gulag:(旧ソ連の)強制労働収容所

This came on the heels of two other embarrassments. He back-pedalled on his promise to forgive all past student loans on the ground that, even in Labour’s free-spending Britain, writing off £100bn might be a bit irresponsible. And he clashed with the pro-European wing of his party when he insisted that Britain would leave the single market when it left the European Union. 

come on the heels of:〜に続いて起こる、〜の直後に起こる
irresponsible:無責任な
clashed:対立する

Further skeletons lurk in Mr Corbyn’s closet. He has spent his life forgiving people their nastiness so long as they are hostile to the Great Satan of the United States. And there are more potential fissures in his coalition. The sort of people who ooh over him at Glastonbury will start aahing if their taxes rocket. But anyone inclined to think that Britain is approaching peak Corbyn or even that, as Country Squire Magazine, a website, argues, “peak Corbyn has passed”, should consider three things. 

skeletons:残骸
lurk:潜む
nastiness:悪意
so long as:の間は
Great Satan:大魔王
fissures:亀裂
ooh:⦅くだけて⦆うわぁー[おおっ]と言う
aahing:切望する
rocket:急上昇する
peak:頂点に達する

The first is that peak Corbyn will be determined by the Conservative Party rather than the Labour Party or Venezuela’s ruling elite. The Conservatives have been in power since 2010 either as the dominant party in a coalition or in their own right. Even in the best of times, voters tire of long-serving ruling parties, blaming them for everything from bad weather to noisy roadworks. These have not been the best of times. The Tories are far more divided than Labour over Brexit—in particular, their “ultras” are more extreme—and, as the party of government, their divisions will be more damaging both to themselves and to the country. 

Second, a few fiff-faffs over communist tyrants aside, Mr Corbyn is acquitting himself quite well as party leader. He is forcing Blairites and Brownites to bend the knee with a judicious mixture of promises of promotion and threats of a beating by his praetorian guard, Momentum. In June Labour humiliated Mrs May despite the fact that most of its MPs thought Mr Corbyn was leading them to disaster. Next time they will be more behind him. 

fiff-:英語ではない Le Festival international de films de Fribourg?
faffs:おろおろする・もたつく
all that [joking, kidding] aside:それ[冗談]はさておき
acquitting himself:行動する
Blairite: ブレア派(Blairite、ブレアリット)とは、イギリスの政党、労働党の派閥。
Brownie:スコットランドや北部イングランドで伝承されている伝説上の妖精のひとつである。呼び名は地方によって全く異なるが、いずれもが民家に住み着いてその家を栄えさせるなど、日本の座敷童子に近い存在である。
praetorian guard:ローマ皇帝の護衛, 近衛兵; (一般に権力者政権などの)近衛団.
Momentum:勢い

His refusal to operate a pairing system (whereby MPs from opposing parties agree to cancel each other out by abstaining from voting) shows a good understanding of guerrilla tactics. Tory MPs will have to turn up for every vote to save the government from defeat, becoming increasingly exhausted, tired and fractious, whereas opposition MPs will be able to pick their moments. 

abstaining:棄権する
fractious:不安定な
pick up momentum:上昇の勢いがある、〔議論が〕熱を帯びる

The third reason is that a combination of economic forces, both long-term and short-term, favour Mr Corbyn. Brexit and its attendant uncertainties will further weaken Britain’s already weakening economy. That will give voters more incentive to punish the party that has “banged on” about Europe for decades and seems to be doing a dismal job of handling the divorce settlement. The hollowing out of the middle classes, as salaried workers see their jobs threatened by artificial intelligence and globalisation and their dreams of home ownership destroyed by rising property prices, is increasing the number of people who are sympathetic to Corbyn-style socialism. 

banged:延々と話し続ける
dismal:〈結果記録見込みなどが〉惨めな

London pride
The clearest signs of this can be seen in the country’s most globalised city, London, where Labour has gained 11 seats since 2010. Having lost such previously deep-blue seats as Kensington and Battersea in the latest election, the Tories could easily lose Chingford & Woodford Green, where Iain Duncan Smith’s majority fell from 8,386 to 2,438, and Uxbridge & South Ruislip, where Boris Johnson’s majority fell from 10,695 to 5,034, in the next one. 

Mr Corbyn also has perhaps the most important thing in politics on his side: the idea of “change” and “hope”. People are fed up with stagnant living standards. They are fed up with squabbling politicians. And they are fed up with the rich seeming to be held to different standards from the poor. The Tories are right to argue that this “changey-hopey” stuff is nonsense. Corbynism will make the country poorer, the infrastructure shoddier and political life more rancorous. But if they cannot go beyond criticising Mr Corbyn’s policies to offering a vision of a better future themselves, they might just as well whistle in the wind. 

fed:うんざりしている
stagnant:停滞した
squabbling:口論する
hopey changey:A euphemism for Obama's fraudulent promises of hope and change.
shoddier:見掛け倒しの
rancorous:恨み骨髄の
whistle in the wind:無駄な努力をする

コルビンが次のイギリスの首相候補としてあがっているが、果たしてうまくいくのだろうか。現在はメイに代わって、人気の絶頂だが、彼には問題がある。その第一は彼の党が支持されているよりはトーリー党にみんながうんざりしているということだ。第二に彼の党をうまくまとめることが出来るのだろうか。そうした背景の中で、彼は今、人気がある。

Brexitだけでなく、今の中産階級の没落と生活レベルの低下、政権における混乱には庶民はうんざりしている。トーリーはオバマが言ったような口だけのチェンジはもう良い。コルビンの社会主義の政策な中身をどう実行していくのか支援するべきだ。彼ら掲げることは出来るが実行できる能力はない。しっかりしたビジョンを提供しなければ、口先だけで終わってしまう。

月曜日。朝会がある。午後はBigLife21の加藤さんが来社する。夜はもと日立化成の武田さんと会食。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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