2017年10月03日

スポットライトはドイツからフランスにシフトしている。 ダイナミックなEmmanuel Macronと先細りしているAngela Merkelがヨーロッパの新秩序を示している。

The spotlight shifts from Germany to France
A dynamic Emmanuel Macron and a diminished Angela Merkel point to a new order in Europe
Sep 30th 2017

スポットライトはドイツからフランスにシフトしている。
ダイナミックなEmmanuel Macronと先細りしているAngela Merkelがヨーロッパの新秩序を示している。



WHO leads Europe? At the start of this year, the answer was obvious. Angela Merkel was trundling unstoppably towards a fourth election win, while Britain was out, Italy down and stagnating France gripped by the fear that Marine Le Pen might become the Gallic Donald Trump. 

trundling :〈手押し車など〉をゴロゴロ転がして行く
unstoppable:止められない; 抑制できない
Gallic:フランス人的な

This week, it all looks very different. Mrs Merkel won her election on September 24th, but with such a reduced tally of votes and seats that she is a diminished figure (see article). Germany faces months of tricky three-way coalition talks. Some 6m voters backed a xenophobic right-wing party, many of them in protest at Mrs Merkel’s refugee policies. Having had no seats, Alternative for Germany, a disruptive and polarising force, is now the Bundestag’s third largest party. 

xenophobic:外国人嫌いの
disruptive:混乱をもたらす
Alternative for Germany:ドイツのための選択肢は、2013年、ギリシャ経済危機を契機に反EUを掲げて結党され、ドイツのEU離脱を最大の目標として掲げている。EU加盟国で議論となっている移民問題についても強く反対している事から右派政党とされる(極右政党と紹介される場合もある)。

Yet west of the Rhine, with a parliament dominated by his own new-minted and devoted party, France’s President Emmanuel Macron is bursting with ambition (see our special report in this issue). This week he used a speech about the European Union to stake his claim to the limelight. Whether Mr Macron can restore France to centre-stage in the EU after a decade in the chorus depends not just on his plans for Europe, but also on his success at home, reforming a country long seen as unreformable.

minted:できたての
bursting:感情など〉でいっぱいになる
stake:〈権利など〉を(正式に)主張する
chorus:(非難称賛の言葉などを)一斉に口をそろえて言うこと

Angela’s leading man
Start with Europe. This week’s speech was brimming over with ideas, including a shared military budget and an agency for “radical innovation”, as well as the desire to strengthen the euro zone. At one level, Mr Macron’s bid for the role of intellectual innovator in Europe fits a long French tradition. Moreover, elements of his speech—a new carbon-tax on the EU’s frontiers, a proposal to tax foreign tech firms where they make money rather than where they are registered, a crusade against “social dumping” with harmonised corporate tax rates—were in keeping with long-standing French attempts to stop member states competing “disloyally” against each other. 

brimming:あふれる
social dumping:不当な安売り

Yet Mr Macron has a more subtle and radical goal than old-style dirigisme; as if to prove it, he agreed this week that Alstom, which makes high-speed trains, could drift from state influence by merging with its private-sector German rival. His aim is to see off populism by striking a balance between providing job security for citizens, on the one hand, and encouraging them to embrace innovation, which many fear will cost them their jobs, on the other (see Charlemagne). In his speech Mr Macron also made the case for digital disruption and the completion of the digital single market. Euro-zone reform would make Europe less vulnerable to the next financial crisis.

subtle:鋭敏な
dirigisme:経済統制政策
drift:ゆっくり動く
see A off B:B〈敷地など〉からA〈人〉を追い払う

The merit of these ideas depends on whether they lead to a more enterprising, open and confident Europe or to a protectionist fortress. But they may not be tried out at all unless Mr Macron can make a success of his policies at home. For, if France remains a threat to the EU’s economic stability rather than a source of its strength, its president can never be more than a bit player next to Germany’s chancellor. 

enterprising:進取の気性に富んだ, 冒険心にあふれた
bit player:《a 〜》〔ドラマなどで〕端役を演じる人[専門の俳優]【参考】bit character《a 〜》〔業界などにおいて〕ごく小さな存在

Mr Macron’s domestic policy might seem to have made a poor start. He has grabbed headlines thanks to the size of his make-up bill, the collapse of his popularity and the whiff of arrogance about his “Jupiterian” approach to power. Predictably, the grouchy French are already contesting the legitimacy of the plans they elected Mr Macron to carry out. Reform in France, it seems, follows a pattern. The street objects; the government backs down; immobilisme sets in.

make-up bill:作り上げた法案
whiff:兆候・気配
Jupiterian:木星の・ローマ人の最高神
Predictably:予想通りに
grouchy:⦅くだけて⦆不機嫌な, すねた; 不平の多い
contesting:に反論する
legitimacy:(主張などの)正当性
backs down:降参する, 【主張要求約束などを】(強い反対に遭って)取り消す
immobilisme:現状維持的政策

Yet take a closer look, and Mr Macron may be about to break the pattern. Something extraordinary, if little-noticed, took place this summer. While most of the French were on the beach, Mr Macron negotiated and agreed with unions a far-reaching, liberalising labour reform which he signed into law on September 22nd—all with minimal fuss. Neither France’s militant unions, nor its fiery far left, have so far drawn the mass support they had hoped for onto the streets. Fully 59% of the French say that they back labour reform. More protests will follow. Harder battles, over pensions, taxation, public spending and education, lie ahead. Mr Macron needs to keep his nerve, but, astonishingly, he has already passed his first big test. 

fuss:大騒ぎ・苦情
drawn:引き出す

In many ways, the 39-year-old Mr Macron is not yet well understood. Behind the haughty exterior, a leader is emerging who seems to be at once brave, disciplined and thoughtful. Brave, because labour reforms, as Germany and Spain know, take time to translate into job creation, and usually hand political rewards to the successors of those who do the thankless work of getting them through. Disciplined, because he laid out clearly before his election what he planned to do, and has stuck to his word.

haughty:高慢な
exterior:外観・うわべ
Disciplined:訓練された
stuck to:こだわる

The unions were fully consulted, and two of the three biggest accepted the reform. Compare that with his predecessor, Francois Hollande, who tried reform by stealth and encountered only accusations of bad faith. Last, thoughtful: Mr Macron does not approach policy as an a la carte menu. He has grasped how digital technology is dislocating the world of work. His governing philosophy is to adapt France’s outdated system of rules and protections accordingly.

consulted:意見を聞く
stealth:密かに
accusations:非難
faith:信用

Drumroll
Over the past few years, an enfeebled France has been a chronically weak partner for Germany, pushing Mrs Merkel into a solo role that she neither sought nor relished. If he is to change that dynamic, Mr Macron needs to move swiftly to match his labour law with an overhaul of France’s inefficient training budget, increase the number of apprenticeships and renovate the state’s sleepy employment services. He also needs to explain with a less contemptuous tone why his plans for tax cuts, including to France’s wealth tax and corporate tax, are not designed simply to benefit business and the better-off. In Europe he needs to reassure the northern, more open economies that he is not trying to put up walls. 

Drumroll:〔主張などに対する〕力強い支持・打楽器の連打
enfeebled:弱った
relished:することに喜びを感じる
apprenticeships:見習い[徒弟]であること
contemptuous:傲慢な

Of course, Mr Macron’s first steps in the spotlight may falter. The odds on any leader reforming France are never high. He will struggle to convince Germany to embrace his vision of euro-zone reform. But, if this year has shown anything, it is that it is a mistake to bet against the formidable Mr Macron. 

falter:よろける
odds:勝てる度合い
formidable:すぐれた

マクロンに対しての高い評価の記事だ。今まではマクロンの支持率が低いので、失敗だったというような記事が多かったが、これは違う。メルケルを超えて、次のヨーロッパをひっぱていくリーダーだと言っている。フランス国内の労働問題が解決しそうなので、国内問題をどうするかだろう。ここで成果が挙げられなければEUへの貢献はできない。

水曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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