2017年10月23日

新興市場が活発に動きている。 問題を抱えた数年後に、新興市場は成熟し、立ち直ってきているとSimon Coxは言っている。 劇的な出来事に加えて、幾分、力強さがなくなっている。

Emerging markets are up and running
After a rocky few years, emerging markets have become more mature and resilient, says Simon Cox. But along with the drama, some of their dynamism has gone
Oct 5th 2017

新興市場が活発に動きている。
問題を抱えた数年後に、新興市場は成熟し、立ち直ってきているとSimon Coxは言っている。
劇的な出来事に加えて、幾分、力強さがなくなっている。

up and running:〔病気などの後で〕元気に動き回って、活発に動いて、元気で活躍して


IN 1875 THE Ottoman Empire defaulted on half its foreign debt, a victim of the “first major debt crisis of the developing world”, according to one account of the mess. Its creditors, led by the Imperial Ottoman Bank, forced the empire’s grand vizier to accept a humiliating solution. Rather than wait to be repaid out of tax revenues, they won the right to collect half a dozen taxes themselves, including stamp duty and duties on alcohol. After 15 years of tax farming, the Imperial Ottoman Bank was comfortable enough to build impressive new headquarters in Istanbul, neo-orientalist in style on one side and neoclassical on the other. 

default:(期限内に)【約束債務契約などを】履行しない, 果たさない ≪on≫
mess:過失などから生じた)困った立場, 窮境(muddle, difficulty):
vizier:(旧イスラム諸国の)高官, 大臣.
grand:威厳のある
humiliating:屈辱的な
dozen:大量の
stamp duty:印紙税
farm:〈土地〉を耕す; 〈家畜〉を育てる

Since long before the term was invented, emerging markets have provided a rich source of both peril and profit. That financial crisis in 1875 was followed by many others, including a hatful in Turkey. And like the Imperial Ottoman Bank, investors with strong stomachs have often profited the most from emerging markets at their worst. Hedge funds that bought impaired Argentine debt for roughly 20 cents on the dollar after its default in 2001 extracted a handsome settlement from its new government last year, worth perhaps ten times what they paid, according to some estimates. 

term:(契約合意売買などの)条件, 条項
peril:危険
hatful:〈人物などが〉【人にとって】本当に不愉快な, とてもいやな
The riots were at their worst.:暴動が最悪の事態を迎えていた.
impaired:〈価値力量質など〉を弱める, 悪くする, 低める; 〈健康など〉を損なう
extracted:搾り取る
handsome:気前の良い

The more recent history of emerging markets has also tested plenty of stomachs. Within days of Donald Trump’s election victory his populist promises raised American bond yields, sending the price of emerging-market assets the other way. Trading partners winced at his tweets threatening American companies planning to shift their production abroad. This “Trump tantrum” appeared to be the latest in a grim sequence of setbacks for emerging markets. 

winced:(痛さ恐怖困惑などのため)【声考えなどに】たじろぐ, ひるむ
tantrum:特に幼児の)かんしゃく, 不機嫌
grim:気のめいる
sequence:一連の出来事

It followed China’s botched devaluation of the yuan in 2015, the collapse in oil and iron-ore prices in 2014 and the “taper tantrum” in 2013, when mere talk of a slowdown in asset purchases by America’s Federal Reserve threw emerging markets into turmoil. The Trump tantrum came on top of political risks arising in emerging markets themselves, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Philippines’ war on drugs, a successful coup in Thailand in 2014 and a failed one in Turkey in 2016, the removal of an unpopular president in Brazil for a fiscal misdemeanour, and the survival of embattled rulers in South Africa and Malaysia. 

botched:(不注意未熟で)…をしくじる, やり損なう
taper:(細長い物の幅の)先細り; (量勢いなどの)漸次的減少.
mere talk:単なる噂
misdemeanour:不行跡, 不品行.
embattled:多くの問題[困難]を抱えた, 追いつめられた〈人組織など〉.

Strange as it may seem, though, the presidency of Mr Trump, an avowed opponent of globalism, has coincided with a recovery in globalisation. In the first half of this year the volume of emerging-market exports was 4.6% up on a year earlier, the fastest growth since 2011, according to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a government agency. The growing demand for semiconductor chips and sensors lifted South Korea’s and Malaysia’s electronics exports; the recovery of the oil price bolstered Russia; and a favourable turn in the weather benefited Brazil’s harvest of soyabeans and corn. 

avowed:公然の; 自ら認めた; 公言された
coincided:同時に起こる ≪with≫

Higher exports have helped lift GDP. In the first half of 2017 the four biggest emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China, known as the BRICs) all grew simultaneously for the first time in three years. Emerging-market growth still cannot match that in the miracle years of 2003-06, but it has been equally broad. So far 21 of the 24 countries in the MSCI emerging-markets index, the most popular stockmarket benchmark, have reported GDP figures for the second quarter of this year, and all of them were up on the previous quarter. Not since 2009 has growth been positive in every member that publishes quarter-on-quarter numbers. 

broad:明らかな
quarter-on-quarter:前四半期比

This improvement in emerging-market growth has been accompanied by renewed enthusiasm for their currencies, bonds and shares (see chart). In August these countries recorded their ninth month in a row of capital inflows from portfolio investors, the longest streak since 2014, according to the Institute of International Finance. An index of emerging-market exchange rates compiled by MSCI has risen by 14% since its trough in January 2016. It has enjoyed its best 18 months since 2011. Even ill-favoured currencies such as the Russian rouble, Mexican peso and Chinese yuan have defied their doubters, strengthening against the dollar this year (see chart below). 

streak:ひと続き
trough:景気の谷
defied:〈法律規則権威など〉に従わない



The price of emerging markets’ “hard-currency” dollar bonds rose by over 6% in the first half of the year, according to J.P. Morgan. And bonds denominated in their own, hardening currencies did even better, rising by double digits. But nothing has been as eye-catching as their stockmarkets. The MSCI EM index rose above 1,000 in May from below 700 in January 2016, an annualised gain of about 33%. 

hardening:強くする

The strength of the rally makes many old hands nervous. The history of emerging markets is full of imprudent investors as well as improvident borrowers. The delusion of those parting with their money often matches the myopia of those squandering it. In 1895, for example, a stockmarket boom prompted one big international bank to nearly triple its loans in two years. The bank’s own manager peddled South African mining shares such as the Transvaal Consolidated Land and Exploration Company. When the shares crashed, the bank suffered a run, turning to the government and its London owners for a bail-out. This reckless financial institution was none other than the Imperial Ottoman Bank that had grown rich from tax farming a few years earlier. 

rally:(株価の)持ち直し, 反発.
old hand:〔ある分野の〕熟練者、ベテラン、名人
imprudent:思慮分別の欠けた, 軽率な
improvident:将来を考えない
delusion:思い違い, 誤った考え
part with A:(やむなく)A〈物〉を手放す, 売り払う 
myopia:視野の狭さ
squandering:〈金時間機会など〉を浪費する
peddled:〈商品〉を売りに歩き回る
reckless:無謀な


Pessimists can find a number of reasons to worry, some traditional, others more novel. Classic emerging-market crises often begin in Washington, DC, when the Fed raises interest rates or tightens monetary policy in other ways. So nerves will jangle if an uptick in American inflation pushes the Fed to increase rates faster than the market now expects. And for a new variation on this old theme, investors can fret about the Fed’s recent decision to begin trimming the assets it bought after the global financial crisis. 

novel:斬新な, 革新[画期]的な, 目新しい
in other way:他の方法で
jangled nerves:イライラした気持ち、逆なでされた神経
fret :人〉をやきもきさせる, 心配させる; いらだたせる
trimming:〈数量人員予算など〉を削減する

The commodity cycle is another time-tested source of instability. The halving of oil prices in the second half of 2014 inflicted great pain on Russia and other crude exporters. Conversely, costly oil in the years before 2014 added to the chronic trade deficits and inflation suffered by countries such as India and Pakistan. The Latin American debt crisis in 1982 was caused by a combination of a commodity shock and a Fed shock. The petrodollars earned by Gulf exporters during the oil-price spikes of the 1970s were deposited in American banks, which lent them incautiously to Latin American governments. These loans then became impossible to repay when the Fed raised interest rates sharply in 1979-81. 

time-tested:時の試練を経た、長期間の使用で保証済みの、長年かけて有効性が実証されている、実績のある、伝統のある
incautiously:無謀に

The have-nots
Countries not blessed with commodities have worries of their own. The only natural resource in many emerging markets is manpower, but a growth model based on labour-intensive manufacturing now faces two unaccustomed threats. One is automation. The growing versatility and user-friendliness of robotic technology may be eroding the advantages of cheap labour, resulting in what economists call “premature deindustrialisation”. Post-industrial rustbelts are common in rich economies like America. The fear is that emerging-market industries will turn rusty before their people grow rich. 

haves and have-nots:持てる者と持たざる者
unaccustomed:異常な、尋常ならない、いつにない
versatility:汎用性
rusty:錆びついた

Another threat is protectionism. Emerging economies have always relied on access to the world’s biggest markets for their exports. But the Trump administration is keen to reduce America’s trade imbalances, and has become more active in imposing anti-dumping duties and other tariffs on goods it considers too cheap. It has so far opened investigations into 65 potential cases of dumped or subsidised products (from Chinese staples to Colombian citric acid), compared with 44 in the same period of 2016. 

citric acid:硝酸

As some countries worry about exporting to America’s market, others worry about importing its politics. In both Brazil and Mexico, the candidates for the next presidential election include outspoken populists who draw strength from battling with Mr Trump or mirroring his provocations. Emerging markets have traditionally had a strong comparative advantage in populism. But that is another imbalance Mr Trump seems keen to correct. 

outspoken:言いたいことを(正直に)言う, 歯に衣を着せない
provocations:挑発・扇動
comparative:相対[比較]的にみた場合の

This special report will examine each of these dangers in turn. It will argue that emerging economies in recent years have become more resilient, albeit less vigorous, losing some drama as well as some dynamism. That should allow their recovery to continue despite the threats they face. 

A lot of emerging-market investors are “waiting for the good old-fashioned crisis”, said Mark Dow, a money manager and former IMF economist, in a podcast interview late last year. In their experience, “it always ends with a blow-up…it’s happened so many times for so many of the old wizened EM hands that they are conditioned to believe it has to be like that again.” 

blow-up:爆発
wizened:干からびた; しなびた; しおれた; 〈人顔などが〉しわだらけの.

It does not, but plenty of doubters remain. In particular, the failure of emerging markets to deal effectively with earlier shocks (such as higher oil prices in the 1970s, tighter Fed policy in 1979-81 and mightier Chinese manufacturing in the 2000s) has contributed to a lingering concern that middle-income countries are more likely to become “trapped” as they develop, marooned somewhere between poverty and prosperity. 

lingering:長引く
marooned:(脱出が困難な場所に)置き去りにされる; 孤立状態にされる.

If the “middle-income trap” were found to be real, it would pose a more serious problem than ever before. Countries at that intermediate level of development account for a growing share of the world’s GDP and its people. The global economy could not prosper if such an enormous part of its population and production were to become thus ensnared. Fortunately, as this report will argue, the trap is a myth. 

ensnared:〈人〉を困難[不快, 違法]な状況に陥れる.
myth:誤った考え

新興市場の景気が良くなってきている。19世紀のオットーマン帝国の財政難の話とか2001年のアルゼンチンのディフォルトの話もあったが、最近の話ではFedが金利を上げれば新興市場は借り入れの負担が大きくなるので、景気が落ち込んでしまう。こうした市場の国々は資源は主に人材だが、昨今はAIとロボットが進んできているので、以前のように、安い人件費は強みではなくなった。中所得国の罠は以前ほど心配しなくて良くなった。トランプがアメリカの市場を保護しだしたので、輸出ができなくなることは心配だ。それでも、新興市場は立ち直ってきている。

火曜日。ではまた明日。


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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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