2017年11月06日

衰退する地域を支援する正しいやり方 地域の変化する経済に関しての新たな思考

The right way to help declining places
Time for fresh thinking about the changing economics of geography
Oct 21st 2017

衰退する地域を支援する正しいやり方
地域の変化する経済に関しての新たな思考

in one's declining years:晩年に.
the geography of poverty (ある地域における)貧困の分布.
produce fresh thinking on 〜に関する新たな思惑を生む


POPULISM’S wave has yet to crest. That is the sobering lesson of recent elections in Germany and Austria, where the success of anti-immigrant, anti-globalisation parties showed that a message of hostility to elites and outsiders resonates as strongly as ever among those fed up with the status quo. It is also the lesson from America, where Donald Trump is doubling down on gestures to his angry base, most recently by adopting a negotiating position on NAFTA that is more likely to wreck than remake the trade agreement (see article).

crest:頂点に達する, 
sobering:a sobering thought 考えさせられるもの[内容].
doubling down:倍賭けする
gestures:a nice gesture 思いやりのある意思表示
wreck:John's heavy drinking wrecked his marriage .:ジョンは酒の飲みすぎで結婚生活をめちゃくちゃにした.

These remedies will not work. The demise of NAFTA will disproportionately hurt the blue-collar workers who back Mr Trump. Getting tough on immigrants will do nothing to improve economic conditions in eastern Germany, where 20% of voters backed the far-right Alternative for Germany. But the self-defeating nature of populist policies will not blunt their appeal. Mainstream parties must offer voters who feel left behind a better vision of the future, one that takes greater account of the geographical reality behind the politics of anger. 

demise:(活動などの)終了, 停止; 終結.
self-defeating:自己破滅的な、自滅的な
blunt:The cold reaction from the teacher blunted the enthusiasm of the students. 教師のそっけない反応が生徒のやる気をそいでしまった.
left :置き去りにする(behind)
take account of:〜を考慮に入れる、〜に配慮する 〜に気付く、〜に注意する
geographical:地域に関する[特有の]

Economic theory suggests that regional inequalities should diminish as poorer (and cheaper) places attract investment and grow faster than richer ones. The 20th century bore that theory out: income gaps narrowed across American states and European regions. No longer. Affluent places are now pulling away from poorer ones (see article). This geographical divergence has dramatic consequences. A child born in the bottom 20% in wealthy San Francisco has twice as much chance as a similar child in Detroit of ending up in the top 20% as an adult. Boys born in London’s Chelsea can expect to live nearly nine years longer than those born in Blackpool. Opportunities are limited for those stuck in the wrong place, and the wider economy suffers. If all its citizens had lived in places of high productivity over the past 50 years, America’s economy could have grown twice as fast as it did.

bore:Time will bear me out [bear out what I say].:時が私(の話)の正しさを証明するだろう.
Affluent:〈地域人生活などが〉(経済的に)豊かな
pulling:引き離す
divergence:逆行現象
stuck: get stuck in traffic [a traffic jam] 交通渋滞に巻き込まれる

Divergence is the result of big forces. In the modern economy scale is increasingly important. The companies with the biggest hoards of data can train their machines most effectively; the social network that everyone else is on is most attractive to new users; the stock exchange with the deepest pool of investors is best for raising capital. These returns to scale create fewer, superstar firms clustered in fewer, superstar places. Everywhere else is left behind. 

clustered:集まる
diminishing returns to scale:《経済》規模に関する収穫逓減

Even as regional disparities widen, people are becoming less mobile. The percentage of Americans who move across state lines each year has fallen by half since the 1990s. The typical American is more footloose than the average European, yet lives less than 30 kilometres from his parents. Demographic shifts help explain this, including the rise in two-earner households and the need to care for ageing family members. But the bigger culprit is poor policies. Soaring housing costs in prosperous cities keep newcomers out. In Europe a scarcity of social housing leads people to hang on to cheap flats. In America the spread of state-specific occupational licensing and government benefits punishes those who move. The pension of a teacher who stays in the same state could be twice as big as that of a teacher who moves mid-career. 

disparities:不均衡
Even as:にもかかわらず
footloose:身軽な
two-earner:共働きの
culprit:原因
social housing:公営住宅
punishes:ひどい目に合わせる
mid-career employee:中途採用者

Perversely, policies to help the poor unintentionally exacerbate the plight of left-behind places. Unemployment and health benefits enable the least employable people to survive in struggling places when once they would have had no choice but to move. Welfare makes capitalism less brutal for individuals, but it perpetuates the problems where they live. 

Perversely:反対に
exacerbate:悪化させる
the plight of women in our society:私たちの社会における女性の苦境.
brutal:過酷な
perpetuates:永続させる

Welcome to the place age
What to do? One answer is to help people move. Thriving places could do more to build the housing and infrastructure to accommodate newcomers. Accelerating the reciprocal recognition of credentials across state or national borders would help people move to where they can be most productive. But greater mobility also has a perverse side-effect. By draining moribund places of talented workers, it exacerbates their troubles. The local tax-base erodes as productive workers leave, even as welfare and pension obligations mount. 

reciprocal:〈関係取り決めなどが〉相互の, 互恵的な
have excellent credentials for the job:その仕事の立派な実績がある.
draining:流出する
moribund:崩壊寸前の

To avoid these outcomes, politicians have long tried to bolster left-behind places with subsidies. But such “regional policies” have a patchy record, at best. South Carolina lured BMW to the state in 1992 and from it built a thriving automotive cluster. But the EU’s structural funds raise output and reduce unemployment only so long as funding continues. California has 42 enterprise zones. None has raised employment. Better for politicians to focus on speeding up the diffusion of technology and business practices from high-performing places. A beefed-up competition policy could reduce industrial concentration, which saps the economy of dynamism while focusing the gains from growth in fewer firms and places. Fostering clusters by encouraging the creation of private investment funds targeted on particular regions might help. 

cluster:あつまり
diffusion:普及
beefed-up:強化された
saps:徐々に奪う

Bolder still would be to expand the mission of local colleges. In the 19th century America created lots of public technical universities. They were supposed to teach best practice to farmers and factory managers in small towns and rural areas. They could play that role again today for new technologies, much as Germany already has a network of applied-research institutions. Politicians might even learn from Amazon, whose search for a home for a second headquarters has set off a scramble among cities hoping to lure the giant etailer. Governments could award public research centres—in the mould of America’s National Institutes of Health or Europe’s CERN—to cities which prepare the best plans for policy reform and public investment. This would aid the diffusion of new ideas and create an incentive for struggling places to help themselves. 

scramble:先を争うこと
etailer:Eテイラー〘ネット上で商品を売る小売業者; electronic retailerともいう〙
mould:型

Perhaps most of all, politicians need a different mindset. For progressives, alleviating poverty has demanded welfare; for libertarians, freeing up the economy. Both have focused on people. But the complex interaction of demography, welfare and globalisation means that is insufficient. Assuaging the anger of the left-behind means realising that places matter, too. 

Assuaging:和らげる
matter:重要である

貧困を解決する方法は福祉だとか、経済の活性化だとか議論する前に、その地域をどう認識するかが需要だ。人々に焦点を当てるだけでなく、地理的な要素を考える必要がある。ポピュリズムのような人気とりのような政策では長続きはしない。ドイツの移民政策とかトランプのNAFTA政策を見れば歴然だ。うまくいかない。人口動態、福祉、グローバリゼーションの錯綜した関係は人の側面からの対応ではしきれない。その地域の特性をどう見極めるかが重要な要素だ。

火曜日。今日はインタートレードの内藤さんが来社。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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