2017年11月09日

中国の第19回共産党大会が何で、何故重要なのか。 この5年毎の会合は習近平の権力の強さを示すだろう。

What is China’s 19th Communist Party congress and why does it matter?
This quinquennial gathering will indicate the strength of Xi Jinping’s authority
Oct 17th 2017by J.P. | BEIJING

中国の第19回共産党大会が何で、何故重要なのか。
この5年毎の会合は習近平の権力の強さを示すだろう。

quinquennial:recurring every five years.


ON OCTOBER 18TH Xi Jinping, the leader of China’s Communist Party, will kick off a big party gathering in the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square in Beijing. It will look like innumerable other party meetings. There will be a huge throng, 2,300-strong, mostly men in dark suits, a few of them in tribal costumes. There will be long speeches with impenetrable verbiage. No policies will change. 

innumerable:innumerable times [people] 数えきれないほど何度も[多くの人].
throng:a throng of reporters 大勢の報道陣
impenetrable:理解できない, 不可解な.
verbiage:言葉遣い, 言い回し.

But this meeting matters more than most because party congresses take place just once every five years and this is the first one to be chaired by Mr Xi. Like all congresses, it will revise the party constitution and elect a new political elite—the 370 or so members of the party’s Central Committee, to which all important decision-makers belong. It will also be a coronation and a test for Mr Xi. The coronation will reveal how much authority he has accumulated over the party. The test will reveal whether he is a rule-breaker or a rule-keeper. 

coronation:戴冠(たいかん)式, 即位式

China’s Communist Party has held congresses since its foundation. The first was in 1921. But the practice of quinquennial gatherings dates to Deng Xiaoping’s attempts in the 1980s to introduce a sense of order and predictability after the chaos of the Cultural Revolution. Deng also introduced a number of other rules, or norms, that have more or less been kept for 20 years. 

sense of order《a 〜》秩序感覚
predictability:予測[予知・予報・予言・予見]可能性

Among them: that the leader should retire after two terms and appoint a successor after the first (meaning, in Mr Xi’s case, now); that there should be fixed retirement ages for top leaders (68 for the Central Committee); that people should move up the party in incremental steps, not leaps and bounds; and that at the end of his term the leader should be granted a kind of ideological canonisation, with an ideology associated with him written into the party’s constitution. All these rules are up for grabs at the coming congress. 

canonisation:列聖◆カトリック教会では福者(blessed)を聖人(saint)にすることを指す。偶像化
A is up for grabs.:(希望者なら誰でも)A〈仕事賞チャンスなど〉が手に入る, 入手可能である.

The 19th congress is unusual because an exceptional number of people will retire or, following their arrest, be replaced. Mr Xi has already replaced the party leaders and governors in all but one of China’s 31 provinces, as well as most of the leadership of the army and roughly half his ministers. The replacement of almost three-quarters of the Central Committee will complete his dominance over the party. 

arrest:停止

The congress will also reveal how Mr Xi intends to use his authority. If he replaces the prime minister with the anti-corruption chief, Wang Qishan, that would signal an extremely assertive approach and a willingness to break the rules. (Recent prime ministers have served two terms; at 69, Mr Wang breaches the retirement rule, too.)

assertive:しっかり自己主張する, 積極的な; 断定的な; 独断的な.

If Mr Xi promotes the 57-year-old Chen Min’er to the Standing Committee of the Politburo (the committee with the highest prestige), and no one else from the so-called sixth generation (born in the 1960s), that would indicate Mr Chen was being groomed as a successor. It would also show that Mr Xi is willing to ignore the rule about step-wise promotion, since Mr Chen has enjoyed a meteoric rise. 

Chen Min’er:陳 敏爾は中国の政治家。中国共産党第18期中央委員会委員、重慶市党委書記。 習近平党総書記の側近であり、第6世代の実力者。
groom : 新郎, 花婿(bridegroom)
meteoric: a meteoric rise (人気階級などの)急上昇, 大出世.

But if Mr Xi promotes two sixth-generation leaders, that would imply the president is not willing to appoint a successor yet, which may in turn suggest he is considering staying on after the end of his normal term in power in 2022. If the congress changes the constitution to include a named reference to Mr Xi’s ideological writings, that would be a strong marker of his authority. His two predecessors received this honour only when they were retiring, and their names were not mentioned. Including Mr Xi in the party’s constitution would make him an ideological arbiter. 

arbiter:裁決[決定]者; (ある分野の)権威(者).

The question is whether his elevated position will make any difference to policy. Mr Xi’s supporters say it will. They argue that economic reform is being stifled by opposition in the bureaucracy and that once Mr Xi has his allies in place he will be able to override resistance. But the chances must be against a burst of market-oriented change. Mr Xi has not exactly been powerless up till now. He pushed through a big change to state-owned enterprises in 2017, and that did little to introduce competition either into the management of enterprises or the sectors they dominate. Reform, under Mr Xi, has meant trying to improve the efficiency of the state sector by setting targets and sending in teams of inspectors. That seems unlikely to change. 

習近平はこの第19回の共産党大会で、次の主席候補を指名したようだが、今までの慣習を破って、大きな人事を行った。31省のうち一人を除いてすべて入れ替え、部長の半分を差し替えた。中央委員会のメンバーも4分3を入れ替えた。しかしながら、経済の分野では国営企業の効率化ぐらいしか考えていないようだ。習近平の権力の集中化は人事を視ると実現したようだ。陳 敏爾が後継者候補のようだ。

金曜日。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

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アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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