2017年12月01日

カタルーニャの危機はジブラルタルのBrexitの懸念を増している。 スペインの愛国主義運動の高まりがイギリスにとって厄介な時になるだろう。

The Catalan crisis adds to Gibraltar’s Brexit concerns
A surge in Spanish nationalism would come at an awkward time for Britain
Oct 31st 2017


カタルーニャの危機はジブラルタルのBrexitの懸念を増している。
スペインの愛国主義運動の高まりがイギリスにとって厄介な時になるだろう。

THE big drama in Spain today is over Catalonia’s bid for independence. But the Catalan affair could also have an impact some 530 miles (850km) to the south-west, in Gibraltar. Recently Catalonia’s representative in Britain, Sergi Marcen, said that Catalonia accepted British sovereignty over the Rock, a clear dig at Madrid. Gibraltar’s chief minister, Fabian Picardo, worries that Catalonia might now produce a surge in Spanish patriotic feeling, just as Brexit is coming to a crunch moment. 

dig:皮肉
crunch:when it comes (down) to the crunch≒when the crunch comes いざという[まさかの]時には.

The peninsula at the neck of the Mediterranean was ceded to Britain in the Treaty of Utrecht of 1713, and has been squabbled over ever since. Mindful of the risk that Brexit might give Spain leverage to reopen the issue of sovereignty, Gibraltarians voted in last year’s Brexit referendum by 96% to 4% to stay in the EU, the highest Remain vote anywhere. Mr Picardo would still prefer to be in the EU’s single market and customs union, but he says Gibraltar has no option but to follow Britain, which plans to leave both. That protects British sovereignty over the Rock, but he adds it is also because 90% of Gibraltar’s trade is with Britain. 

ceded:(条約などにより正式に) ≪…に≫ 〈権利・領土など〉を譲渡[割譲]する
squabbled: 【つまらない事で/人と】言い合う, 口論する over, about/with

Mr Picardo, who has been chief minister since 2011, is proud of his economic record. He says GDP has grown by 60% over the past six years, so Gibraltar has the world’s fourth-highest GDP per head. Unemployment, according to Mr Picardo, stands at a mere 84 people. Yet Brexit is a worry, given Gibraltar’s dependence on financial services, online gambling and tourism, all of which could suffer if access to the single market were curtailed. 

curtailed:sharply [severely] curtail spending 支出を厳しく抑制する.

The biggest problem is Spain. Madrid managed to insert into the EU’s Brexit negotiating guidelines a provision giving Spain a veto over any deal on Gibraltar. Mr Picardo notes that the Spanish foreign minister, Alfonso Dastis, has pledged not to use Brexit as an opportunity to revive the issue. But he is concerned about the border, which Spain has often restricted and was closed from 1969 to 1982. 

revive:復活させる

Some 13,000 people cross the border every day to work in Gibraltar. Mr Picardo points to the huge benefits this produces in a poor part of a poor region, Andalusia, which has long suffered from high unemployment. He says that any action that led to hold-ups at the border, or to interference in Gibraltar’s airport, which is built on partly reclaimed land that Spain says is not covered by the Treaty of Utrecht, would be irrational. 

hold-ups:停止
irrational:have irrational fears ばかげた恐怖心を抱く.

The trouble is that people do not always behave rationally—as the Catalan stand-off shows. Renewed Spanish nationalism might easily affect the Rock. No proud Spaniard will ever accept British sovereignty, whatever Catalans say. The border was reopened only because Spain wanted to join the EU. Gibraltar, once seen as collateral damage from the Brexit decision, could yet become collateral damage from the battle over Catalonia. 

stand-off:膠着
Spaniard:スペイン人
collateral damage:付随的損害; (軍事行動による)巻き添え被害[損害]

ジブラルタルはイギリス領なので、Brexitになってしまうと、EUを撤退してしまう。そうなると、単一市場からこの地域がでてしまうと、彼らの経済はたち行かなくなってしまう。スペインがこことの交通を閉じてしまうことは大きな問題だ。領土問題が再熱することになる。

Nov 1, 2017 | 16:58 GMT Stratfor
The U.S. Ignores Sub-Saharan Africa at Its Own Peril

アメリカは自身の危険を覚悟でサブサハランを無視する。

at one's peril:危険を覚悟で、命懸けで、自分の責任[危険負担]で

Africa has been a key area for the U.S. military to test and tweak its

Despite the historically low-priority status of sub-Saharan Africa to the U.S. military, the U.S. security focus on the region will continue to grow given the systemic weaknesses that militant groups exploit there.

The use of a light footprint strategy — including special operations forces, drones, and cooperation with local partners and allies such as France — will enable the United States to project force at minimal cost. Although President Donald Trump's administration opposes funding multinational efforts such as U.N. peacekeeping missions, the U.S. military will continue to emphasize local partnerships with nations in sub-Saharan Africa.

light footprint:かすかな足跡〈比喩〉必要な人員が少ないこと

Sub-Saharan Africa has long been a low priority for the United States. Since taking office in January, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has confirmed that status, cutting foreign aid budgets that disproportionately affect Africa and turning its focus to other issues and areas. Yet events in recent weeks have magnified the region's prominence in U.S. foreign policy. On Sept. 24, for example, the Trump administration added Chadian nationals to the list of people facing travel restrictions. 

prominence:give equal [more] prominence to  を等しく[より]重要視する, 目立たせる.

Four U.S. service members died in Niger the following week during a mission with local troops. Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, recently visited Ethiopia, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. And on Oct. 20, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis reportedly told senior members of the Senate Armed Services Committee that the military would increase its counterterrorism activities in sub-Saharan Africa, loosen rules of engagement and give commanders in the field more decision-making power. Despite the Trump administration's actions, the region now appears to be receiving more attention from U.S. policymakers.

A Rising Security Priority
U.S. military investment in sub-Saharan Africa has been quietly growing for years. This October, in fact, marked the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), one of nine unified combatant commands. The continent has been a key testing ground for the U.S. military's "small footprint" strategy, which emphasizes partnerships with local forces and cooperation with allies such as France. 

The strategy also stresses the role of special operations forces, drones and training facilities known as Cooperative Security Locations or "lily pads" in an effort to avoid the perception of an overbearing, neocolonial U.S. military presence. (Washington tried to establish a permanent headquarters on the continent when it first rolled out AFRICOM but moved its main offices to Germany after populations and governments in Africa pushed back against the idea.) 

lily pads:〔水面に浮かんだ〕スイレンの葉
overbearing:高圧的な, 横柄な, 高飛車な; 〈物が〉圧倒的な.

As the U.S. military's interest in sub-Saharan Africa has grown, its priorities in the region have shifted. The United States initially focused on East Africa — and particularly on the fight against the al-Qaeda affiliated militant group al Shabaab. In Somalia, U.S. military trainers have provided extensive assistance to the Somali army and to the multinational African Union Mission in Somalia, or AMISOM. But over the past several years, West Africa has started drawing more of the United States' attention. The chaos that consumed Libya after the fall of longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi in 2011 spilled over into nearby Mali, along with militants and weapons. 

In 2013, an offensive from allied jihadist and Tuareg nationalist forces prompted France to intervene to bolster the Malian army and keep the West African country from collapse, with considerable logistical support from the U.S. military. The incident opened the Pentagon's eyes to the glaring security risks in the Sahel, the ecological transition zone between the Sahara and the savannah that traditionally has fallen in France's sphere of influence. Putting aside their Cold War rivalry in the region, Paris and Washington began working together more closely in sub-Saharan Africa. 

glaring:a glaring fault 明らかな落ち度.
ecological:生態学的な.
rivalry:fierce rivalry between the two teams 2チーム間の熾烈(しれつ)なライバル関係.

Resistance From Washington
The Trump administration, however, may set a limit on the partnership. For months Washington has oscillated between wariness and hostility at the prospect of backing the Sahel joint force, a counterterrorism effort made up of battalions from Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Though Trump has pledged $60 million to the project, he has also indicated his displeasure with funding multinational efforts. 

oscillated:の間を (心が)揺れ動く
hostility:強い反対
battalions:軍勢

France, which has devoted considerable resources to help establish the force since President Emmanuel Macron came to power, is getting frustrated with the lack of financial and political support from the United States. During a trip to Washington in mid-October, the French defense minister reportedly asked the United States to increase its assistance for the Sahel joint force, stating that Paris was looking for a long-term strategy to ease its security burden in the region. 

Trump's distaste for funding programs such as U.N. peacekeeping missions, combined with the reports that the Pentagon wants to increase its activities in Africa, makes for an interesting contradiction. Nevertheless, the current administration is unlikely to break with its predecessors' policies, which tried to minimize U.S. military action in favor of local solutions. Senior officials in the U.S. armed forces overwhelmingly agree on the need to keep investing in local partnerships, even as Trump pushes for more aggressive action against militant groups around the world.

distaste:嫌気

Considering that the Sahel — a region whose vast, isolated terrain falls largely under the governance of poor, weak states — will struggle indefinitely with instability, maintaining this strategy is essential. Increased activity in sub-Saharan Africa, moreover, comes with unavoidable risks for U.S. policymakers. To strengthen forces in Niger, for example, U.S. service members will have to accompany their local counterparts on potentially dangerous missions, much as they have in Somalia. And the inherent environmental and logistical challenges that await them in the desolate lands of the Sahel will raise the odds of complications or casualties.

desolate:人気(ひとけ)のない; 荒れ果てた; 活気のない
odds:可能性

The rise of terrorism has driven home the reality that the United States can't afford to disregard sub-Saharan Africa. Though the continent has long been low on Washington's list of priorities, the recent proliferation of militant groups in the Sahel offers a stark reminder that the United States ignores the region at its own peril. 

stark:face a stark choice 厳しい選択を迫られる

サブサハランが最近、テロの土壌になりつつある。その近辺の諸国は安定していない。フランスもアメリカに支援を求めている。アメリカはこの現状を無視できなくなってきている。米軍の幹部はこの状況を支援するべきだという意見だが、トランプは乗り気でない。しかし、ISISの基盤がこのアフリカに移りつつある現場で、今のまま放置していると、再び、中東のような状況になってしまう。トランプはそうしたことがわかっているのだろうが、こうした介入は彼の「アメリカファースト」にはならない。要するに金にならないということだ。

土曜日。今日は海野塾がある。ではまた明日。

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海野 恵一
1948年1月14日生

学歴:東京大学経済学部卒業

スウィングバイ株式会社
代表取締役社長

アクセンチュア株式会社代表取締役(2001-2002)
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